Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                                 

• China Stocks Crumble in US as Worry Over Xi Spurs Record Selloff.  
• China’s Plunging Market Has Become a High-Risk Bet on Xi Jinping.  
• Vulnerable Yen’s Bigger Problem Now Importers Not Speculators.
• More Britons Forced on Pay-as-you-go Energy Meters as Costs Soar.
• Era of Negative-Yielding Debt Close to End as Japan Yields Rise.
• Biden Team Works on Setting Up Xi Meeting as Chinese Leader Tightens Grip.
• Global Stocks Set to Extend Gains, China to Fall: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Edges Higher as Market Tightness Outweighs Slowdown Concerns.
• US Business Activity Contracts for Fourth Month, Orders Shrink.
• Renters Hit Breaking Point in a Sudden Reversal for Landlords.  
• Consumers At Risk From “Predatory” Big Tech Firms Report Warns.
  
• Americans Fall Further Behind on Retirement Savings as Inflation Bites.  
• Dove, Other Unilever Dry Shampoos Recalled Over Cancer Risk.
• Amazon Workers Abandon California Union Election Plan After Loss.

Wall Street Journal:

• The Bivalent Booster Boondoggle. Washington spends billions on shots nobody wants.
• Sunak to Face U.K. Economic Tumult as Prime Minister.
• U.S.-Saudi Relations Buckle, Driven by Animosity Between Biden and Mohammed bin Salman.
• Kathy Hochul Is No Crime Fighter. The New York Governor is scared straight by challenger Lee Zeldin, but it’s too late to change her record. 
• Shares in Chinese Companies Crash After Xi Stacks Party With Allies.
• Intel CEO Calls U.S. Restrictions on Chip Exports to China Inevitable.
• Global Economic Growth Weighed Down by Inflation, Rising Interest Rates.
• Banks Are Offering 4.5% CDs—Just Not to Everyone.

Fox News:

• Biden bungles Harris’ title while wishing her happy birthday during speech — and it’s not the first time.

CNBC.com:

• Inflation is dominating the conversation on earnings calls. Here’s what execs are saying.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Qualtrics, W.R. Berkley, Discover Financial and more.
• Republican gains in key states signal bad news for Democrats ahead of midterms, new polls show.
  

MarketWatch:          

• ‘From Bambi to Godzilla.’ Strategist Rosenberg skewers the Fed, seeing a 30% hit to home prices and the S&P 500 back to early 2020 low.
• Tesla isn’t immune to a spending slowdown, Morgan Stanley says while cutting price target.  
• SEC charges cannabis company Cronos and former executive with accounting fraud.  
• Weber stock jumps 25% after largest shareholder makes acquisition offer for grill maker.  
• Why investors are fleeing Chinese assets as Xi tightens grip on power.

Zero Hedge:

• 30 House Dems Urge Dramatic Shift In Biden's Ukraine Policy: 'Get Serious About Diplomacy Or Risk Nuclear Miscalculation'. 
• Democrats In Panic Mode As Midterm Momentum Favors GOP. 
• Ex-Treasury Secretary Warns Of Deficit "Doom Loop", Says Fiscal Debates Need To Be "Back On The Table".
• Amid European Energy Crisis, US Pipeline Capacity Pushes Permian NatGas Prices Near Zero.
• Cheney Says She'll Do "Whatever It Takes", Including Presidential Run, To Stop Trump In 2024.
• China's Coming Clash With Economic Reality.
• American Students Have A Math Problem.
• Illegal Immigrant Arrests At Border Soar In September, Set New Fiscal Year Record.
• US Oil Industry Mocks Biden Offer To Refill SPR At $72 As "Inadequate To Lift Oil Output".
• Johnstone: The US Government Sees Silicon Valley As Part Of Its Propaganda Machine.
• US stocks were bid across the board although small caps underperformed - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• US Gasoline Prices Go Haywire As Stockpiles Crater... But Here Comes China To The Rescue.
• Amazon Shares Dump After Reported Hiring Freeze In AWS Division.
• China on my mind.
• Stocks bid ahead of earnings bombardment while China tech stocks dive - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Barges On Drought-Stricken Mississippi River "Dead In The Water", Causing Severe Supply Chain Issues.
• Tax Cuts Do Not Cause Inflation. Printing Does...
• US Stocks & UK Bonds Soar As China Chunders, Yen-tervention Fails.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• WTH? Garland and Wray Hijack Your Monday to Announce Arrests of Chinese Double Agents Harassing Chinese Nationals in US — BUT NOTHING ON KONNECH CEO?
• WATCH LIVE: Cochise County AZ To Vote On 100% Hand Count In Midterm Election After Bogus Lawsuit Threat From Katie Hobbs.
• BREAKING: Audit Results of Primary Election in Torrance County, New Mexico Show Differences Between Hand Counts and SOS Records of Up to 25%.
• “Democrats Run on Division, Hatred, Anger, Fear” – Charles Payne from FOX Business on the Democrats’ Response to the Horrible Economy.
• Look What’s Happening in Sweden! After Decades of Failed Globalism, New Government Puts the Citizens First.
• WWE Hall of Famer Kevin Nash Reveals 26-Year-Old Son Dies from Cardiac Arrest.
• ‘Will & Grace’ Star Leslie Jordan Dead at 67 After ‘Suffering a Medical Emergency’ and Crashing His BMW Into Building.
• VIOLENT LEFTISTS BRUTALLY ATTACK Marco Rubio Canvasser – Beat Him Causing Internal Bleeding and Broken Jaw. 
• Joe Biden Says the Quiet Part Out Loud: Republicans in Congress Still Preventing Funding We Need to Stay Vigilant Ahead of the NEXT VIRUS (VIDEO).
• Fetterman Campaign Pre-Debate Spin for Brain Damaged Candidate: “Human Error” by Closed-Caption Transcribers May Cause “Errors in Exchanges Between the Moderators and the Candidates”.
• Let Kids Choose: Joe Biden Slams Republicans for Banning Sex Changes for Little Children (VIDEO).
  

The Epoch Times:

• US Charges 10 CCP Agents in Alleged Plots to Recruit US Spies for China, Obstruct Criminal Prosecution, Forcibly Repatriate Dissidents.
• Hong Kong Stocks Head for Worst Slide Since 2008 as Xi’s Tighter Grip on Power Alarms Investors.
• Meet the 7 Men Who Will Rule China.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 884,059 Reports(+3,177 from prior week) Through October 14th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 228.0 +24.0 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 132.0 +18.0 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.22 +.05%   
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 50.4 +1.1%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.27 -4.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 29.3 -.18%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.17%.

• S&P 500 futures +.12%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.12%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (MMM)/2.59
• (ADM)/1.41
• (BIIB)/4.12
• (CLF)/.51
• (KO)/.64
• (GLW)/.51
• (GE)/.49
• (GM)/1.88
• (HAL)/.56
• (HUBB)/2.71
• (ITW)/2.25
• (JBLU)/.24
• (KMB)/1.45
• (MCO)/2.04
• (NVR)/121.71
• (PCAR)/1.98
• (PII)/2.78
• (PHM)/2.81
• (RTX)/1.14
• (SAP)/1.25
• (SHW)/2.57
• (TRN)/.32
• (UPS)/2.85
• (VLO)/6.95
  

After the Close:

• (GOOG)/1.26
• (BXP)/1.87
• (BYD)/1.33
• (CMG)/9.19
• (CB)/2.61
• (FFIV)/2.52
• (FE)/.79
• (JNPR)/.50
• (MANH)/.57
• (MAT)/.74
• (MSFT)/2.31
• (NCR)/.78
• (TER)/1.04
• (TXN)/2.42
• (V)/1.87
• (WH)/1.03
  

Economic Releases

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Aug. is estimated to fall -.6% versus a -.6% decline in July.
• The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA for Aug. is estimated to fall -.8% versus a -.44% decline in July.
• The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA for Aug. is estimated to rise +14.1% versus a +16.1% gain in July.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for Oct. is estimated to fall to 105.9 versus 108.0 in Sept.
• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for Oct. is estimated to fall to -5.0 versus 0.0 in Sept.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German IFO Guidance report, the US weekly retail sales reports and the 2Y T-Note auction could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by healthcare and consumer staple shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% Net Long heading into the day.