Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:        

• Xi Gives Little Reassurance China’s Main Economic Risks to Ease.
• China Traders See Tech Focus, More Covid Gloom After Xi’s Speech.  
• Truss Faces Whim of Markets and Mutinous UK MPs in Key Week.  
• Biden Aide Says Change in US Military Aid to Saudis Is Possible.
• London Leads UK Home Asking Prices to Biggest Gain in 5 Months.  
• Lula, Bolsonaro Face Off in Debate Before Tight Brazil Runoff.
• Stocks Set to Extend Declines, Currencies on Edge: Markets Wrap.  
• Oil Edges Higher After Weekly Loss as Slowdown Hangs Over Market .
  
• Mercedes Unveils Latest Electric SUV Aimed at Tesla’s Model Y.

Wall Street Journal:

• A Mail-Vote Time Bomb in Pennsylvania. A close Senate election will mean another legal fight over undated ballots.
• Market Whiplash Shows Investors Are Still on Edge.
• Stocks Can Always Get Cheaper. The bottom still feels far off as bad earnings reports and defaults begin to surface.
• Xi Jinping’s Quest for Control Over China Targets Even Old Friends.
• U.S. Executives in Limbo at Chinese Chip Companies.
• Junk-Rated Companies Search for the Right Time to Tap Investors.

Fox News:

• Biden rebuked by foreign officials for calling nuclear-armed country 'one of the most dangerous nations'.
• Christian teacher fired for refusing to read LGBT books to kids fights back.
• Fauci makes big admission on harm of school closures — then deflects blame.

CNBC:

• China’s Xi downplays need for rapid growth, touts Covid achievements.
• Xi on Taiwan interference: China will ‘never promise to renounce’ force.
• The 6 common signs of a sociopath: ‘They can be harder to spot than a psychopath,’ says psychotherapist.

Zero Hedge:

• "Liquidity Breaks And Credit Freezes": BofA's Credit Dysfunction Indicator Breaches The Critical Zone.
• Obama Calls Democrats 'Buzzkills' Who Make People 'Walk On Eggshells'.
• "We Have Entered The Stage Where Policy Makers May Feel They Have Control, But Are Nevertheless No Longer In Control".
• Morgan Stanley: Trouble In The Kingdom Is Just Starting.
• Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• The Wall Of Worry Knows No Bounds.
• Remember the Santa rally?
• "This Is What Annihilation Looks Like": Biden Export Controls 'Wreaking Havoc' On China's Chip Industry.
• Texas Sheriff Declares Undocumented Migrants "Crime Victims" To Secure Visas.
• Tourists Shocked As Number Of Homeless Encampments Explodes In DC.
• Few Getting Updated COVID-19 Boosters Despite White House Pleas.
• In Groundbreaking Speech, Xi Vows To Guide China To "Incomparable Glory", An Alternative To The US.
• A Generational Opportunity In Commodities?
• Watch: Bitter Roger Stone Blasts Trump, "Run Again & You'll Get Your F**king Brains Beat In".
• Election Software CEO Surrenders To LA Authorities; Prosecutors Allege 'Massive Data Breach'.
• Japan Considers Removing 60 Year Limit On Nuclear Plant Operations.
• "It's Global Govt Re-Engineering" - Austin Fitts Warns Fed Actions Are "100% Power Politics... It's A War".
• Lawsuit To Block Student Loan Bailout Can Set Stage For Solving Debt Crisis.
• "Uncharted Territory": Housing Market Predictions For 2023.
• Morgan Stanley Says Auto Estimates For 2023 Must Fall "Significantly" On "Demand Destruction".
• Sweden Refuses To Share Nord Stream Attack Data, Opts Out Of Joint EU Investigation.
• More Foods Will Be Gene-Edited Than You Think.
• Why Are Student Test Scores Plunging? Look At Politicized Education.
• Arctic Blast To Blanket Eastern Half Of US Next Week.
• In Overheated Economy, Dems Forced To Cool Climate Messaging.

MarketWatch.com:           

• Classic 60/40 investing strategy sees worst return in 100 years. How about 40/60?  
• Nearly every U.S. CEO bracing for recession over next 12 to 18 months: survey.

NewsMax:

• China's Xi Touts Growing Military Strength in Challenge to US. 
• Bernie Kerik: Dems' 'Rogue Policies' Endanger Police.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• In 2009 Iranian Protesters Were Calling Out for Obama as They Were Being Shot Dead in the Street – This Week Obama Finally Says He Was Wrong to Ignore Them — But Would Not Have Changed His Policies (VIDEO). 
• CRAZY: Liberal Media Compares Stroke Victim Fetterman Who Can’t Carry on a Conversation to FDR (He’s More Like Biden). 
• Pfizer Exec Scott Gottlieb Responds to Evidence that He Pressured Twitter to Censor Author Berenson’s Account – Insists It Was to Protect Fauci (VIDEO).
• Haitian Singer Collapses on Stage and Dies Suddenly of Suspected Cardiac Arrest During Concert in Paris (VIDEO).
• Pandemic of the Vaccinated: New Data from Walgreens Reveals Vaccinated People are More Likely to Test Positive.
• China’s Xi Jinping Opens Annual CCP Conference and Announces Full Control of Hong Kong – Taiwan Is Next.
• FACEBOOK IS SPYING ON YOU: Facebook Suspends Wife of FBI Whistleblower Steve Friend After She Responds in Private Message to Post Asking if Family Needs Help.
• Number of Police Killed in Targeted Attacks Has Doubled Since Democrat-Sanctioned Anti-Police Protests in 2020.
• They Weren’t Gaffes – Joe Biden Did Exactly What He Campaigned On.
• “Our Economy is Strong as Hell” – Joe Biden with a Mouth Full of Ice Cream (VIDEO).
• Fetterman at PA Rally: “Send me to Washington DC to Take On — To Make Sure I Push Back Against Work to Work!” (VIDEO).
• Chants of ‘Death to Khamenei’ Heard Outside Burning Iranian Jail Where Hundreds of Regime’s Opponents Held.

The Epoch Times:

• Election Software CEO Surrenders to LA Authorities; Prosecutors Allege ‘Massive Data Breach’.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 880,882 Reports(+3,155 from prior week) Through October 7th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs). 
• COVID Money Tracker. Tracking the Covid response.
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 205.0 +2.0 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 115.0 +2.75 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.3 +.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 49.4 +.3%.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.50 -26.0 basis points 
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 31.6 -.12%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.71%.
• S&P 500 futures +.31%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.27%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (BAC)/.78
• (BK)/1.08
• (SCHW)/1.05
  

After the Close:

• (MRTN)/.33
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for Oct. is estimated to fall to -4.0 versus -1.5 in Sept.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Japan Capacity Utilization report could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.