Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                                  

• China Builders Have $292 Billion of Debt Coming Due Through 2023.  
• Global Bankers Fly Into Hong Kong Amid Growing US-China Tensions.
• Petrobras Suffers $4 Billion Plunge as Lula Win Sparks Fears.  
• Credit Suisse Is Not For Sale, Chairman Says.
• Bond Rout Forces Japan Regional Bank Into Alternative Assets.  
• Caution for Asian Stocks Before Central Bank Moves: Markets Wrap 
• OPEC Says World Can’t Live Without Oil, Demand Will Keep Rising.
• Biden Warns Oil Firms He’ll Seek Tax on ‘Windfall’ Profits.  
• Wells Fargo Is in Talks With US Watchdog to Settle a Number of Inquiries.  
• Apple’s Online Store and Information Systems Chiefs Are Leaving.  
• More Than a Third of Small Businesses Can't Pay Their Rent.

Wall Street Journal:

• Eurozone Inflation Rate Rises to 10.7% as Recession Looms.
• Musk Is Forming Circle of Advisers to Reimagine Twitter.
• Mortgage Giant Rocket Plunges Back to Earth, Hit by Rising Rates.
• High Court Hears Arguments on Race in Admissions.
• Can Harvard Discriminate by Race Forever? The school’s advocates can’t say when racial bias in admissions will end.
• Affirmative Action Exposes the Secret Meaning of Equity. Within academia, all understand it as a way to favor some races at the expense of others. 
• University-Endowment Returns Drop Into Negative Territory. 
• An Energy Education for Democrats. Biden’s climate policies have raised prices, and he’s mad as hell about it.
• Drugmakers Fight Over Lucrative Pneumonia Vaccines.

Fox News:

• RUNNING ON EMPTY:Supplier warns Americans of gas shortages, price surge.
• John Fetterman loses out on major endorsement with just days to go in consequential Senate race.

CNBC.com:

• Delta pilots vote in favor of potential strike as contract talks drag on.
• Homebuilders say the new year could be ugly as buyers pull back.
• Another interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve is on the way: Here’s how it may affect you.
• Biden threatens higher taxes on oil companies if they do not work to lower gas prices.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Avis, Stryker and more.
  

MarketWatch:        

• GameStop stock soared, then fell all the way back down, in biggest price reversal since May. But why?  
• Herbalife puts former CEO back in charge and withdraws guidance, stock dives.
  
• People are keen to move out of big cities due to inflation. They are eyeing these sunny locations for lower-cost living.

Zero Hedge:

• Leaked Docs Reveal Shocking Extent Of DHS "Disinfo" Collusion With Twitter, Facebook.
• Pelosi Attacker Charged With Assault, Attempted Kidnapping; Intended To "Kneecap" Nancy "If She Lied".
• Spooky Torts: The 2022 List Of Litigation Horrors. 
• Yuan Traders Test PBOC's Credibility Like It's 2015.
• Anti-Russian Alliance Fractures After Japan Decides To Stay In Russia's Sakhalin-1 Energy Project.
• Iran's IRGC Seizes Foreign Fuel Tanker In Persian Gulf.
• TuSimple Fires Co-founder As CEO Amid Federal Probes, Board Inquiry.
• Biden Lost Temper In Zelensky Phone Call: "Show A Little More Gratitude" .
• US stocks declined at month-end amid global data woes- Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Yields Surge To Session High After Treasury Unexpectedly Projects It Will Issue An Additional $150BN In Q4 Debt.
• Reported Federal Probes Reignite Concerns Over TuSimple's China Dealings.
• Biden Blasts 'Big Oil' For "War Profiteering", Urges Congressional 'Windfall Tax'.
• Johnstone: Advocating World War Three Is Just Mainstream Punditry Now.
• Weak global data sees risk hit and Dollar bid ahead of key events - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Who's Really Ahead In The Pennsylvania Senate Race?
• Bonds Battered, Bitcoin Bid, But The Dow Soars To Best October Ever.

Newsmax:  

• Pollster Jim McLaughlin: All About Inflation, Crime.
• Holt: Dwindling Diesel Stock Will Worsen Ukraine Deal Consequences.
• Rep. Fallon: Biden Mistaken to Remove Oil From Reserves.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Criminal Complaint: Pelosi Attacker David DePape Went Up to the Bedroom – Was Tired, Wanted to Take a Nap.
• DEVELOPING: Justice Department Files Federal Criminal Charges Against David DePape – Allows Government to Control and Hide Evidence – And Selectively Leak.
• How Is This Legal? Scientists In London Lab Just Created A Mutant Super Strain of COVID And It’s Reportedly Lethal.
• Fully Vaxxed and Boosted CDC Director Walensky Tests Positive For Covid AGAIN in *Rebound Case* After Taking Paxlovid.
• WAYNE ROOT: Is the Paul Pelosi Story the New Jussie Smollett Fraud, or the New Hunter Biden Laptop Scandal?
• This Is Bus Where David DePape Stayed – The Man Who Authorities Say Broke Into Pelosi’s Home and Organized a Kidnapping While Running a Conservative Website.
• BREAKING: Pelosi Attacker Dave DePape in US Illegally.
• Supreme Court Says Federal Government CAN Enforce Masks on Airplanes.
• Two Studies from Columbia and Harvard Reveal New Omicron Boosters Were Just as Ineffective as Previous Covid Shots – FDA Says Study Too Small to Come to Any Conclusions.
• “Listen, Do They Think We’re Idiots?” – Steve Bannon and Mathew Tyrmand Discuss the Improbable Brazilian Election Results that Look a Lot Like the “Drop and Roll”.
• Crisis in Wisconsin: Military Ballots at Risk.
  

The Epoch Times:

• Shanghai Disney Shuts Down Abruptly Over COVID, With Visitors Trapped Inside.
  
• ‘Compromised’: Democrat Aide Fired for China Ties, GOP Demands Investigation.
• Stellantis Joint Venture in China Filing for Bankruptcy Due to Plunging Vehicle Sales, Company Says.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 887,564 Reports(+3,505 from prior week) Through October 21st, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 233.25 +10.0 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 126.75 +7.5 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.5 -.01%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 46.2 +2.0%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.06 -2.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.4 unch.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.25%.

• S&P 500 futures +.26%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.38%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (AGCO)/3.16
• (BP)/.32
• (ETN)/2.01
• (LLY)/1.93
• (FOXA)/1.14
• (IT)/1.87
• (IDXX)/2.04
• (LEA)/2.13
• (LGIH)/3.37
• (LPX)/1.51
• (MPC)/7.03
• (TAP)/1.35
• (MYGN)/-.08
• (NEM)/.34
• (PFE)/1.40
• (PSX)/5.03
• (PBI)/.02
• (RGEN)/.68
• (SEE)/.90
• (SPG)/2.92
• (SYY)/.99
• (UBER)/.06
• (WAT)/2.58

After the Close:

• (AMD)/.72
• (ABNB)/1.55
• (AIG)/.52
• (ANDE)/.37
• (CZR)/.16
• (CAKE)/.30
• (CHK)/4.48
• (CRUS)/1.44
• (CLX)/.78
• (DVN)/2.13
• (EA)/1.35
• (HRB)/-1.09
• (MTCH)/.59
• (MCK)/6.09
• (MSTR)/1.03
• (MDLZ)/.69
• (PRU)/2.02
• (YUMC)/.30
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending MoM for Sept. is estimated to fall -.6% versus a -.7% decline in Aug.
• ISM Manufacturing for Oct. is estimated to fall to 50.0 versus 50.9 in Sept.
• ISM Prices Paid is estimated to rise to 53.0 versus 51.7 in Sept.
  

Afternoon:

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for Oct. is estimated to rise to 14.5M versus 13.49M in Sept.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The RBA rate decision, weekly US retail sales reports and the (BA) investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% Net Long heading into the day.