Tuesday, February 12, 2019

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on China Trade Deal Hopes, Diminished Govt Shutdown Worries, Technical Buying, Homebuilding/Tech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.2 -4.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.53 +.62%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.91 -.78%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 41.55 -1.8%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 139.0 -1.42%
  • Total Put/Call .78 -9.3%
  • NYSE Arms .82 -32.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 65.50 -3.21%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 568.0 +.14%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 89.88 -2.08%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 271.25 -6.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.57 -2.0%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 175.12 -1.82%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 156.70 +.17%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 13.5 unch.
  • TED Spread 27.25 -2.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.5 +.5 basis point.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.25 +.36%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.43% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 17.75 +.75 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 83.15 USD/Metric Tonne -1.81%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 15.20 -2.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -77.6 -.7 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.9 +.5 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.84 +2.0 basis points
  • 0.0% chance of Fed rate hike at May 1st meeting, 1.1% chance at June 19th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +86 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +24 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +8 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/retail/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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