Stocks Finish Higher, Boosted by Restaurant, Hospital, Airline, HMO and Networking Shares

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Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Lower Energy Prices, Stable Long-Term Rates

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher into the final hour on gains in my Technology longs and Defense longs. I added (IWM/QQQQ) hedges and added to my (EEM) short today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are rising and volume is below average. Investor anxiety is high. Today’s overall market action is mildly bullish. The VIX is falling 1.56% and is high at 25.94. The ISE Sentiment Index is below average at 125.0 and the total put/call is slightly below average at .78. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running above average most of the day, hitting 1.34 at its intraday peak, and is currently 1.13. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling 1.51% today to 104.50 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is falling 2.2% to 129.54 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5^th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is rising 1.12% to 42 basis points. The TED spread is now down 422 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is rising 9.46% to 43.38 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is falling 4.46% to 36 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is falling 4 basis points to 1.74%, which is down 90 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .17%, which is unch. today. The Banks feel a bit “heavy” today and a number of market-leading stocks are lower despite gains in the major averages. Despite a weaker US dollar, larger-than-expected US inventory decline, Iran concerns and a better-than-expected PMI report from China, oil has reversed lower again. On the positive side, small-caps are outperforming substantially and the US sovereign debt credit default swap is falling another 12.5% to 35.0 basis points, which is the lowest since May 13^th. Transportation shares are also relatively strong as they try and penetrate the 200-day moving average. Nikkei futures indicate an +135 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate a -13 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on more shorting, increasing economic worries and financial sector pessimism.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

- The Commodity Futures Trading Commission will use all of its regulatory power to ensure fair operations of futures markets for oil, agriculture, currencies and interest rates, the agency’s chairman said. “It’s important that the CFTC use all of its current authorities to vigorously fulfill its mission that markets are free of fraud and manipulation,” Gary Gensler, who was sworn in as chairman on May 26, said in an interview yesterday. In his first week, he “asked the staff here to report up options and recommendations with regard to these markets, particularly as it relates to the markets for physical commodities.” Gensler, 51, is reviewing his agency’s powers as U.S. lawmakers urge a crackdown of market speculators that they say caused last year’s record-high prices for oil, wheat, corn and other goods. Senator Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent, introduced legislation that would make the CFTC invoke emergency authority to stop oil speculation. Representative Bart Stupak, a Michigan Democrat, has sought limits on credit derivatives. Gensler said this year that speculators contributed to an asset bubble in commodities in 2008. He broke ranks with the former acting chairman of the CFTC, Walter Lukken, who testified to Congress on Sept. 11 that there wasn’t “strong evidence” index traders were driving up prices. Gensler wouldn’t say in the interview if he thought the same thing was happening this year. Oil prices “appear to have been divorced from the underlying fundamentals of weak demand, ample supply and high inventories,” Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist in Washington for Deutsche Bank AG, said in a June 5 note. Sieminski cited three “major macro-economic indicators” to explain the rise in prices -- optimism in the global economy, a weakening in the U.S. dollar and more money being invested in commodity index funds. Total assets under management for one company’s group of commodity exchange-traded funds “is now greater than it was at the peak of 2008,” Sieminski wrote. “Fundamentals do not support the price spike,” Nobuo Tanaka, the executive director of the Paris-based International Energy Agency, told reporters yesterday in Washington. Gensler was asked about Stupak’s proposal to ban “naked” credit-default swaps, a derivatives agreement where the investor doesn’t own the underlying debt on the contracts being purchased. “I do believe that it’s appropriate, given their unique nature, to consider additional rules for credit-default swaps, and by additional, I mean additional to what we do for all swaps,” Gensler said.

- President Barack Obama’s $12.8 trillion commitment to stimulate credit markets will ensure economic recovery in the US outpaces Europe’s “anemic” revival, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.(GS). A profit can be made from buying credit-default swaps on the Markit iTraxx Europe Index of 125 investment-grade companies and selling default protection on the Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index, said Alberto Gallo, a credit strategist at Goldman. “US credit will outperform as Europe faces a deeper recession and more anemic recovery,” NY-based Gallo said.

- Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen said the prospect that policy makers will leave the benchmark U.S. interest rate near zero for the next several years is “not outside the realm of possibility.” “We have a very serious recession, we have a 9.4 percent unemployment rate,” and inflation possibly falling over time below the Fed’s preferred level, she told reporters yesterday after a speech to the Commonwealth Club of California in San Francisco. Given the recession’s severity, “we should want to do more. If we were not at zero, we would be lowering the funds rate.”

- U.S. mortgage applications fell last week by the most since February, defying efforts by President Barack Obama’s administration to revive the housing market. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of applications to purchase a home or refinance a loan dropped 19 percent to 444.8 in the week ended June 26 from 548.2 the prior week. The group’s refinancing gauge declined 30 percent to the lowest in seven months, while the index of purchases fell 4.5 percent.

- Companies in the U.S. cut more jobs than forecast in June, according to a private report today, showing the labor market will be slow to improve even as other parts of the economy indicate the recession is abating.

- Ford Motor Co.(F) and Nissan Motor Co. reported June U.S. sales that were better than estimates, as analysts predicted a stabilizing U.S. economy may have led the auto industry to its strongest month this year. Deliveries at Ford slid 11 percent from a year earlier, according to a statement today from the Dearborn, Michigan-based company. Nissan posted a 23 percent decline. Toyota Motor Corp. said its sales fell 32 percent. Chrysler Group LLC reported a 42 percent drop after it ended most sales to fleet customers.

- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will begin refinancing mortgages with loan-to-value ratios of as much as 125 percent as the Obama administration seeks to boost participation in its anti-foreclosure programs.

- Mir Hossein Mousavi, the main challenger in the June 12 presidential election, said Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s government lacks “political legitimacy” for the majority of Iranians. Former President Mohammad Khatami said the country faces a “velvet coup against the people.”

Wall Street Journal:

- Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank ranked as the best prime brokerages of 2008 in a closely followed survey due out this week, a copy of which was reviewed by Dow Jones Newswires. The annual survey of hedge funds, conducted by Global Custodian magazine, had about 25% fewer respondents than last year -- not surprising considering the global economic meltdown and shrinking of the hedge-fund industry.

- Consumers looking for a flat-screen TV deal these days should head straight to one place: the plasma-TV aisle.

- China is expected to ban imports of U.S. chicken in coming days, a move likely to deliver a blow to the struggling American chicken industry and escalate trade tensions between the two nations.

NY Times:

- Car sales in the United States are in a funk. Even with a strong June, the current annualized rate of about 10 million vehicles sold will not be enough to compensate for scrapped cars and population growth. Yet the best investment play on an American recovery may not be a car company or parts maker. Instead, it may be Sirius XM, the company that operates the subscription satellite radio service.

- Bank Woes Deepening in Europe.

MarketWatch:
- Macy's may not tell Gimbels, goes the old adage, but Citigroup analysts aren't shy about recommending a rival's shares: They told clients Wednesday that Bank of America's stock is the best bank buy going.

NY Post:

- Ruth Madoff is in the clear -- for now. Ruth will not be prosecuted for the massive Ponzi scheme that won her husband Bernard Madoff a 150-year prison sentence, sources told The Post yesterday.

AppleInsider:

- An aggressive back-to-school promotion and a more affordably-priced overhaul to Apple's MacBook Pro notebook line are boosting Apple's personal computer shipments to levels not seen since last October, shortly before the economic climate caught up with the Mac maker in earnest. Huberty also provided a graph based on weekly data from market research firm NPD that points to a "steady acceleration of Mac shipments over the last few weeks" since the MacBook Pro line saw its refresh. But even prior to that launch, "Apple began to outperform the broader commercial PC segment -- with commercial Mac shipments up 25% month-over-month in May versus market growth of just 1%," she wrote.

Washington Times:

- When House Democratic leaders were rounding up votes Friday for the massive climate-change bill, they paid special attention to their colleagues from Ohio who remained stubbornly undecided. They finally secured the vote of one Ohioan, veteran Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur of Toledo, the old-fashioned way. They gave her what she wanted - a new federal power authority, similar to Washington state's Bonneville Power Administration, stocked with up to $3.5 billion in taxpayer money available for lending to renewable energy and economic development projects in Ohio and other Midwestern states. House Energy and Commerce Chairman Henry A. Waxman, California Democrat, included the Kaptur project in a 310-page amendment to the legislation unveiled at 3 a.m. Friday, just hours before the bill was to be debated on the House floor. The amendment was packed with other vote-getting provisions, both large and small, that had been sought by dozens of wavering Democrats. The wheeling and dealing proved successful. Mr. Waxman and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, California Democrat, backed by the personal lobbying of President Obama, won over enough lawmakers to pass the bill narrowly Friday evening, 219-212.

- Rep. John Conyers Jr. reversed his opposition to a controversial hazardous waste project in his district, writing a letter of support to the federal government with the help of his wife, former Detroit City Council member Monica Conyers, whose aide later linked her to receiving money from the contractor in the project. The letter, sent in July 2007, was written in support of permit transfers for a hazardous waste injection well project in the city of Romulus, Mich., which was operated by a company with ties to Mrs. Conyers, who has pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit bribery in a federal investigation unrelated to the hazardous waste project. In his letter to the Environmental Protection Agency, the Michigan Democrat, chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, said many things had changed in favor of the project since he stood in opposition along with fellow Michigan congressman, Rep. John D. Dingell, in 2003.

- Republican lawmakers, coming off a loss Friday in their attempt to block passage of a massive climate bill, have seized on a global warming memo they say was suppressed by the Obama administration. The memo, drafted by two environmental economists, is highly critical of the science behind an Environmental Protection Agency memo that found carbon dioxide to be a greenhouse gas. Sen. James M. Inhofe of Oklahoma, the ranking Republican on the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, and Sen. John Barrasso, Wyoming Republican, said the memo shows that the EPA did not have accurate information when it completed its finding.

Reuters:
- China has asked to debate proposals for a new global reserve currency at next week's Group of Eight summit in Italy and the issue could be referred to briefly in the summit statement, G8 sources said on Wednesday. One G8 source who was involved in the negotiations said China made the request during preparatory talks about a joint statement to be issued on the second day of the summit in L'Aquila by the G8 plus the G5 (Brazil, India, China, Mexico and South Africa) and also Egypt. This forum, the so-called "G14", meets on July 9 to discuss the financial crisis, trade and climate change and for the first time a G8 summit will also produce a joint G14 statement.

- The Baltic Exchange said on Wednesday it had changed the way its chief sea freight index .BADI was calculated in a move aimed at boosting freight derivatives trading. The daily index, which gauges the cost of shipping resources including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertilizer, is compiled from data provided by members of the exchange from international ship broking companies.

- Oil fell on Wednesday after government data showed a build in U.S. gasoline inventories ahead of the Independence Day holiday, traditionally the peak of the summer driving season. Gasoline stockpiles in the world's top consumer rose by 2.3 million barrels last week, above analysts forecasts, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed. "The fact that gasoline stocks are up 2.3 million barrels ahead of the Fourth of July weekend is huge," said Stephen Schork, editor of The Schork Report, adding, "Demand is low." Total U.S. product demand fell 5.8 percent over the four weeks to June 26 compared to year-ago levels, according to the EIA report. Further pressure on crude came after a Reuters survey showed OPEC output rose in June, with members' compliance with agreed cuts at 72 percent last month, a fall from 75 percent in May.

- General Motors Corp n Wednesday reported a 34 percent drop in monthly U.S. sales or June, its first sales results since it filed for bankruptcy n a restructuring funded by the Obama administration.

DigiTimes:

- The supply of Intel's(INTC) entry-level G31 IGP chipset, which currently accounts for 50% in Intel's total shipments to the channel, has fallen far short of demand, according to sources at motherboard makers.

Lusa:

- Macau’s casino revenue fell 17% in June from a year earlier, citing data from casino operators. For the first six months of this year, revenue declined 12% from the year-earlier period.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
Mid-cap Growth (+.42%)

Sector Underperformers:
Education (-2.08%), Biotech (-.47%) and Banks (-.25%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
ADY, FSLR, MAR, HOT, MYGN, ACOR, LEAP, CBST, BOOM and ALXN

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
1) USU 2) KFT 3) SLM 4) OSK 5) NDAQ

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
Small-cap Value (+2.53%)

Sector Outperformers:
Airlines (+3.05%), Networking (+2.64%) and Restaurants (+2.44%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
AIG, BLKB, KTC, FCX, BBL, E, PTR, IBKC, AMAG, FELE, FUQI, PRAA, SCHN, VECO, PWRD, RDEA, STEC, WERN, PLCE, CRMT, BIIB, CYOU, ADTN, HURN, ZRAN, CENT, UFCS, TPL, SNX, OSK, EVY, LNN, UNF, SNY, SWM, DTG, WHI, STZ, AXE, FCN and GIS

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
1) KLAC 2) NVLS 3) SLE 4) OSK 5) UTX

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