Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Wednesday Watch


Evening Headlin
es
Bloomb
erg:
  • EU Recruits ECB to Lead National Regulators in Bank-Crisis Fight. The European Union today will unveil proposals for euro-area bank oversight that require unprecedented cooperation between the European Central Bank and national regulators. The Frankfurt-based ECB should expand its role as financial-system guardian by becoming the top-level supervisor of every lender in the 17-nation currency region, EU officials said in interviews. At the same time, the central bank would depend on national regulators for day-to-day supervision and ensuring that banks comply with European rules, according to the proposals. Safeguards for the U.K. and the other 9 nations that don’t use the euro are included, to protect them from being drowned out by their neighbors during rulemaking. Today’s plans aim to phase in the new system by Jan. 1, 2014, and all 27 EU members will need to sign off.
  • Stimulus to Reverse Commodity Bull-to-Bear Fastest Since 2008. Commodities surged from a bear to a bull market in anticipation of economic stimulus measures from the Federal Reserve, completing the fastest turnaround since the depths of the financial crisis starting in 2008. Within 11 weeks the Standard & Poor’s GSCI spot index rose 22 percent from its 2012 low.
  • U.S. State Pension Funding Ratios Declined in 2011, Loop Says. Public pension funds in 16 states and the District of Columbia last year had assets of 80 percent or more of what is need to pay promised benefits to retirees, down from 18 in 2010, Loop Capital Markets said. The median ratio of assets to liabilities for 149 state- level pensions dropped to 73 percent in 2011 from 76 percent the year before as a slowing global economy and the European debt crisis damped investment returns and more states failed to meet annual contribution requirements, Loop said today in a report. Eighty percent is a common threshold of sustainability for retirement plans, according to Loop. Illinois was the lowest- funded state, at 44 percent. “State and local government pension plans’ fiscal health continued to deteriorate slightly over the last year, although the falloff is not significant for the vast majority of plans,” Loop said in the report.
  • U.S. Said Set to Target First Non-Bank Firms for Scrutiny. Regulators are poised to choose the first U.S. non-bank companies that are likely to be branded potential risks to the financial system, according to two people with knowledge of the plans. The Financial Stability Oversight Council plans to request confidential data from as many as five firms at a meeting this month, said the people, who declined to be identified because the plans aren’t public. The request is a step toward deciding whether the companies should be subject to Federal Reserve supervision, including stress tests, higher capital levels and tougher liquidity requirements.
  • Zuckerberg on Facebook’s(FB) Stock, Mobile, and Morale. For the first time since his company’s disastrous initial public offering on May 18, Facebook Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg spoke publicly about the social network’s rocky path to the market, saying that the stock’s performance has been “obviously disappointing.” He also argued that investors may be underestimating the traction Facebook is getting on mobile phones, comments that helped the stock gain more than 3 percent on Tuesday.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Obama to Israel: You're On Your Own. No 'red lines' for Iran and no time to meet Netanyahu. Does President Obama want Israel to bomb Iran before the election? If we had more faith in this Administration's competence, we'd be tempted to think so. Both publicly and behind the scenes, Administration officials have insisted they oppose a unilateral Israeli strike for many reasons: Diplomacy and sanctions still need time to work; an Israeli attack could destabilize the region; Israel doesn't have the military means to do the job thoroughly; and so on. It's no secret the Israelis don't want to strike Iran either, provided the U.S. is serious about keeping a bomb out of the mullahs' hands. But Israel's confidence in Mr. Obama's seriousness is fading fast. This week, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told Bloomberg Radio that "we're not setting deadlines" for Iran to halt its program.
  • Exchanges Plot Fixes for Their Glitches. The biggest U.S. stock exchanges are meeting with some of their largest customers to hatch a plan they hope will convince regulators that the industry can prevent the kind of technology snafus that have dogged the stock market this year, say people involved with the discussions.
  • In Chicago, Standoff Built Over Two Years. A teachers strike that shut down the nation's third-largest school district for a second day Tuesday had its roots in the election two years ago of union head Karen Lewis, who harnessed growing teacher anger over school reform efforts here that were targeting teachers' performance and closing poor-performing schools.
  • Legg Mason(LM) CEO to Leave Amid Pressure. Facing pressure from activist investor Nelson Peltz's Trian Fund Management LP and battling investor outflows, Legg Mason Inc. said Chairman and Chief Executive Mark Fetting will step down Oct. 1. The Baltimore-based money manager faces a Nov. 30 deadline after which Trian, Legg Mason's largest shareholder, will be free to raise its 10.5% stake in the firm, potentially giving Mr. Peltz more influence.
  • Syria's War Animates Zealots in Iraq. The Syrian war is fanning a sectarian backlash in neighboring Iraq, as rising violence attributed to al Qaeda on both sides of the border pushes the government in Baghdad closer to its counterpart in Damascus. The tensions can be seen in and around Al-Qaim, a desert border town in Iraq's Anbar province, where U.S. forces led a campaign six years ago that mostly halted al Qaeda's sway.

Fox News:

  • State Department officer killed in attack on US Consulate in Libya, following Egyptian protest at US embassy. Protesters angered over a film that ridiculed Islam's Prophet Muhammad fired gunshots and burned down the U.S. consulate in the eastern Libyan city of Benghazi, killing one American diplomat, witnesses and the State Department said. In Egypt, protesters scaled the walls of the U.S. embassy in Cairo and replaced an American flag with an Islamic banner. It was the first such assaults on U.S. diplomatic facilities in either country, at a time when both Libya and Egypt are struggling to overcome the turmoil following the ouster of their longtime leaders, Muammar Qaddafi and Hosni Mubarak in uprisings last year.

Business Insider:

Zero Hedge:

CNBC:

  • Recalling ‘Tortilla Riots,’ Mexico President Warns About Food Crisis. World leaders must take swift action to avert a possible food price shock in 2013, Mexico’s President Felipe Calderon says, warning unchecked price volatility in staple food items could trigger an escalation in poverty to crisis levels. “I'm afraid that this new phenomenon of rising of prices of food around the world will provide a new round of crisis related with poverty,” Calderon told CNBC in an exclusive interview on Tuesday. “The problems in Africa, even the Arab spring, in my opinion are some way or another related to the price of food,” Calderon said, adding that next year could mark “a new round of very high prices.” “All the countries should do something and quickly in order to avoid any social and political turmoil around the world,” he added.
  • Leaders Remain Far Apart on ‘Fiscal Cliff’ Fix.
  • Draghi Alone Cannot Save the Euro. A more aggressive monetary policy would confirm German fears that the ECB was becoming the Banca d’Italia. The difficulty for the ECB is that relevant and appropriate measures are viewed, in Germany, as a giant step on the dismal path to hyperinflationary ruin. So long as this is the case, the ECB cannot make the euro look irreversible. That fact will undermine markets. That would force the ECB to buy more, so making the policy still less credible. The ECB has done what it can, given the politics. The decision of the German constitutional court and the result of the Dutch election may help. But the risks of a breakup cannot be eliminated. If these are to disappear, citizens of debtor countries must see a credible path to growth, while citizens of creditor countries must believe they are not throwing money down a bottomless pit. What the ECB has done is win some time. It has not won the game.

AEI:

Reuters:
  • Romney criticizes Obama response to Libya, Egypt attacks. Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney on Tuesday criticized the Obama administration's initial response to violent attacks at U.S. diplomatic missions in Egypt and Libya as a campaign centered on the U.S. economy took a detour into foreign policy. "I'm outraged by the attacks on American diplomatic missions in Libya and Egypt and by the death of an American consulate worker in Benghazi," Romney said in a statement. "It's disgraceful that the Obama administration's first response was not to condemn attacks on our diplomatic missions, but to sympathize with those who waged the attacks," he said. Romney was also likely to weigh in soon on U.S. relations with Israel.
  • Texas Instruments(TXN) warns of weakening chip demand. Texas Instruments Inc said on Tuesday that chip demand this quarter would be at the low end of its expectations due to weak markets such as Europe, realizing investor fears. The maker of chips for products ranging from cellphones to cars was able to maintain its financial targets for the quarter only due to an insurance payment, cost cuts and better than expected sales in its declining wireless business. But in reality, TI said that demand in most areas of its chip business was weaker than expected as customers kept product stockpiles low due to concerns about the global economy. TI saw some customers push back orders made in July and August to September, according to Ron Slaymaker, TI's head of investor relations. And on top of this, "overall product demand for the quarter has also declined a little" to the lower end of TI's previous expectation, he told analysts on a call.
  • German court seen okaying EU bailout fund, strings attached. Germany's Constitutional Court is expected to give its approval on Wednesday to the euro zone's new bailout fund while insisting on guarantees to safeguard German parliamentary sovereignty and limit Berlin's financial exposure. Chancellor Angela Merkel remained tactfully quiet as the court kept policymakers and markets on tenterhooks for months, delaying the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and fiscal compact to check that they comply with German democratic rules. But Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble blurted out last week he was "sure" of victory over the 37,000-odd plaintiffs, who include eurosceptics from Merkel's centre-right coalition and Left Party hardliners opposed to European integration.
  • NBC skips 9/11 moment of silence, keeps up with Kardashians. For NBC's "Today" show, keeping up with the Kardashians on Tuesday trumped observing a moment of silence marking the attacks of Sept. 11, an American television news tradition observed by every other U.S. broadcast network. At 8:46 a.m., ABC, CBS and Fox all aired live silent footage of grim-faced firefighters and somber families from various memorials, marking the minute 11 years ago when the first of two hijacked airplanes struck New York's Twin Towers. NBC's "Today" morning program at the same moment broadcast an interview with Kris Jenner, the mother of Kim Kardashian and a cast member of the popular reality show "Keeping Up with the Kardashians."
  • Moody's warning on U.S. rating extends to some munis. If Moody's Investors Service strips the United States of its triple-A credit rating, a possibility the rating agency warned of on Tuesday, the ratings of three states and dozens of local governments could also be affected. Moody's put federal officials on notice that unless they agree on a plan to tame the nation's debt load, the U.S.'s rating could be downgraded a notch to Aa1 next year.
  • Vast crowds demand Catalan autonomy from crisis-hit Spain. Hundreds of thousands of Catalans took to the streets of Barcelona on Tuesday in an unprecedented show of mass support for autonomy from Madrid, blaming Spain's economic crisis for dragging their wealthy region down. Surging unemployment and financial disarray have stoked a fever of separatism in Catalonia, a comparatively prosperous part of Spain whose leaders say their wealth is being sucked dry by the central government. Crowds waved red and yellow striped Catalan flags - one of the oldest still in use in Europe - and sang the Catalan anthem on a national day marking the conquest of Catalonia by Spain's King Philip V in 1714 after a 13 month siege of Barcelona. The central government said the crowd was 600,000 strong. Catalan police gave figures as high as 1.5 million.

Telegraph:

Xinhua:

  • China CPPCC Suggests Imposing Tax on Large Stock Sales. The Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference's economic committee suggested imposing taxes on income from large stock sales as the nation cuts stock trading stamp tax and taxes on dividends to bolster revenues, citing Liu Kegu, a member of the CPPPC.
China Securities Journal:
  • Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China and several other Chinese banks cut discounts on loans to first-home buyers in Beijing and stopped offering a 15% reduction off the benchmark rate, citing unidentified real estate agents.
Evening Recommendations
Piper Jaffray:
  • Rated (DG) Overweight, target $61.
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +1.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.50 -2.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 107.0 -1.5 basis points.
  • FTSE-100 futures -.11%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.23%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.36%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (PLL)/.77
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Import Price Index for August is estimated to rise +1.5% versus a -.6% decline in July.

10:00 am EST

  • Wholesale Inventories for July are estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.2% decline in June.

10:30 am EST

  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,900,000 barrels versus a -7,426,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -500,000 barrels versus a +993,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,700,000 barrels versus a -2,334,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +1.0% versus a -5.1% decline the prior week.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

  • The Dutch elections, Eurozone inflation data, Eurozone Industrial Production, German Court Ruling on ESM, EU Bank Union Proposal, Apple's(AAPL) iPhone 5 unveiling, weekly MBA mortgage applications report, USDA Crop Report, 10Y T-Note auction, BofA Merrill Real Estate Conference, BofA Merrill Media/Communications/Entertainment Conference, ThinkEquity Growth Conference, Goldman Natural Resources Conference and the CSFB Capital Goods Conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Less Eurozone Debt Angst, Global Central Bank Hopes, Short-Covering, Commodity Sector Strength


Broad Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 16.21 -.43%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 123.0 +5.13%
  • Total Put/Call .75 -3.85%
  • NYSE Arms .85 -40.41%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 93.63 bps -1.5%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 208.63 bps -2.31%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 189.79 -1.57%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 211.68 -3.44%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 15.0 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 30.25 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.0 +2.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .10% unch.
  • Yield Curve 144.0 +1 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $100.20/Metric Tonne +5.47%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.10 +6.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 +1 basis point
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +9 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -15 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my Tech/Medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines


Bloomberg:
  • U.S. Rating May Be Cut by Moody’s If Debt-to-GDP Not Reduced. The U.S. may lose its top credit rating from Moody’s Investors Service unless lawmakers are able to reduce the percentage of debt to gross domestic product during budget negotiations next year. Moody’s, which placed a negative outlook on the U.S.’s Aaa grade in August, said in a statement today that the rating would likely be cut to Aa1 if negotiations fail to produce such policies. Plans that produce a stabilization and then downward trend in the ratio over the medium term will likely lead to an affirmation of the rating. The U.S. is on course for a so-called fiscal cliff in which tax cuts enacted under President George W. Bush to expire at the end of this year and for more than $1 trillion of automatic spending reductions to take effect in January.
  • ESM Ruling Won’t Be Delayed, Germany’s Top Court Says. Germany’s top constitutional court rejected a last-minute bid to delay a case over the European Stability Mechanism, clearing the way for a ruling on the 500 billion-euro ($640 billion) bailout plan tomorrow. The Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe said today it would issue its ruling on the ESM as scheduled at 10 a.m. tomorrow, without further comment on the bid to delay the case by lawmaker Peter Gauweiler. He argued the court should delay the ruling after the European Central Bank pledged unlimited funds to buy government bonds.
  • Deutsche Bank(DB) to Increase Job Cuts, Lower Pay to Reach Goal. Deutsche Bank AG (DBK), Europe’s biggest bank by assets, will cut jobs and review its pay practices to help boost profitability as capital requirements rise and Europe’s debt crisis drags on.
  • Baltic Dry Index Falls for 10th Day as Ore-Carrier Rates Slide. The Baltic Dry Index fell for a 10th day as rates for the largest iron-ore carriers declined on a surplus of available ships. The index lost .6% to 662, according to Baltic Exchange data. "The oversupply of vessels is no longer just Capesizes, it's the entire market, putting great pressure on rates," Jeffrey Landsberg, president of Commodore Research & Consulting, a NY-based adviser to ship owners, said today.
  • Trade Deficit in U.S. Widens as Exports Start to Wane: Economy. The U.S. trade deficit widened in July for the first time in four months as the global economic slowdown took a toll on American exports. The gap grew to $42 billion from a revised $41.9 billion in June, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The deficit with China climbed to a record, and it was the widest in almost five years with the European Union. Another report showed job openings in July declined. A stagnant Europe and cooling emerging markets may further limit shipments from America’s shores, removing a source of strength for the three-year expansion. The figures coincide with a recent deceleration in U.S. manufacturing and indicate the economy will rely on consumer spending, business investment and housing to pick up the slack. “Global demand is weakening,” said Carl Riccadonna, a senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York. “The second-half outlook is going to depend a lot on the consumers, and that means more than ever we have to stay focused on the labor data and also the confidence numbers.
  • Burberry Rattles Luxury-Goods Sector as Revenue Growth Slows. Burberry Group Plc (BRBY), the U.K.’s largest luxury-goods maker, said full-year profit will disappoint after sales growth slowed globally, sending the shares down the most ever and rattling those of peers. “We know we are not alone in terms of what we’ve seen in the last couple of weeks,” Chief Financial Officer Stacey Cartwright said today in a phone interview, citing conversations with other luxury-goods makers. “Traffic is down.” Burberry fell as much as 20 percent, the steepest drop since the company’s 2002 initial public offering, while LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA (MC), Cie. Financiere Richemont (CFR) SA and PPR SA also slumped. “I’m not necessarily convinced that it’s just Burberry specific,” John Guy, a consumer-goods analyst at Berenberg Bank in London, said in a phone interview. Few competitors have yet to report sales for the period, he said. “We would not be surprised if other luxury players are seeing similar trends” to Burberry, Kate Calvert, an analyst at Seymour Pierce in London, wrote today in a note, cutting her recommendation on the stock to hold from buy. In China, where a boom in demand for watches and jewelry has spurred sales gains for luxury-goods companies, revenue has slowed ahead of a once-a-decade leadership transition by the Communist Party later this year, Cartwright said. There has also been a slowdown in gift-giving, the executive said. Sales at stores open at least a year were unchanged in the 10 weeks ended Sept. 8, with a “deceleration in recent weeks,” Burberry said in today’s statement. “We started the quarter at low- to mid-single digits and we’ve ended up flat,” Cartwright said. “That says that the last couple of weeks have turned negative,” she said, calling the slowdown “broad-based in all of the regions.”
  • Oil Rises for Fifth Day on Speculation of Fed Stimulus. Prices headed for the longest streak of gains since July before a two-day Fed meeting starting tomorrow. Oil also advanced as the dollar weakened against the euro after Moody’s Investors Service said it may lower the U.S. credit rating. “People are anticipating that there will be some stimulus plans” that should increase oil demand, said Chris Barber, a senior analyst at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. “The Moody’s announcement points to a weaker dollar, which tends to raise commodity prices.” Crude for October delivery gained 22 cents to $96.76 a barrel at 1:09 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The five-day increase would be the longest since July 19. Brent oil for October settlement slid 12 cents to $114.69 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
  • Gold Advances on Outlook for Further Stimulus From Fed. Gold rose for the third time in four sessions as prospects for more stimulus from the Federal Reserve spurred demand for the metal as a store of value. The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee may consider asset purchases at its Sept. 12-13 meeting. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled last month that a third round of so- called quantitative easing may be needed to reduce joblessness. Gold futures for December delivery climbed 0.4 percent to $1,738.40 an ounce at 9:32 a.m. on the Comex in New York. Bullion touched a six-month high on Sept. 7 after U.S. job growth in August trailed estimates, adding to speculation that the Fed will announce more stimulus measures this week.
  • UBS Whistle-Blower Secures $104 Million Award From IRS. Bradley Birkenfeld, the former UBS AG (UBSN) banker who told the Internal Revenue Service how the bank helped thousands of Americans evade taxes, secured an IRS award of $104 million, an amount his lawyers said may be the largest ever for a U.S. whistle-blower. He pleaded guilty to conspiracy in 2008, a year after reporting the bank’s conduct to the Justice Department, U.S. Senate, IRS and Securities and Exchange Commission. He was released from prison Aug. 1. He began serving a 40-month sentence in January 2010 at Schuylkill Federal Correctional Institution in Minersville, Pennsylvania. He received good-time credit that reduced his term, according to his lawyers. After leaving prison, he moved to a halfway house in New Hampshire, Kohn said.
  • ObamaCare Means IRS Quagmire, Former Commissioner Says. The U.S. health care law’s process for providing insurance subsidies to middle-income families will produce a “needless administrative and compliance quagmire,” a former Internal Revenue Service commissioner will tell a congressional committee today. The subsidies, structured as tax credits, are the main method in the 2010 law of helping Americans obtain health insurance. They will be delivered through exchanges -- government-run markets that will connect people with insurance and cover part of the cost through federal payments to insurers. The exchanges will be operated by states and the Department of Health and Human Services. Such exchanges “will be starting from scratch -- with no experienced workforce, no tested technology and no history of dealing properly with confidential taxpayer information,” former IRS Commissioner Fred Goldberg will say, according to his written testimony to a panel of the House Ways and Means Committee. “It’s a safe bet that they will not have anything like the resources they need to do the job the way it should be done,” he will say.
  • Poll Shows Obama in Virtual Tie With Romney Among Likely Voters. The poll gave Obama 49 percent and Romney 48 percent among the likely voters, showing little movement from a survey taken before the party gatherings, which had Romney ahead by 2 points. Both of those results were within the margins of error for the surveys.
  • China Sends Patrol to Islands at Center of Japan Dispute. China deployed patrol boats near a disputed island chain after Japan strengthened its assertion of control over them, escalating a standoff between the world’s second and third-largest economies.
Wall Street Journal:
  • For 11th Anniversary, a Simpler Ceremony. New York marked the 11th anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks Tuesday with a simpler ceremony than in years past, marking a shift in the way the city remembers the 2,977 people lost that day.
  • Israeli Leader Ratchets Up Feud With U.S. Israel's prime minister expressed dissatisfaction with Washington's refusal to spell out what would provoke a U.S.-led military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities, escalating the open rift between the leadership in both countries.
  • Schäuble Says Germany Is Fiscal Role Model. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble told the country's parliament that German economic growth is hampered by the global economic slowdown but there is little reason to worry. "We are, in all humility, a role model for many European countries," Mr. Schäuble said in the Bundestag Tuesday. "Growth and deficit reduction aren't mutually exclusive." The minister was driving home a strategy that Ms. Merkel's government has tried to force struggling European countries to follow. The minister said conservative fiscal and economic policy reform, rather than the European Central Bank's printing press, will lead Europe out of its massive fiscal crisis.
MarketWatch:
CNBC.com:
  • Health Care Premiums Will Likely Soar in 2013. Rising Health-Care Premiums Hit Middle Class. U.S. health insurance premiums have climbed faster than wages and inflation this year, and look poised to accelerate in 2013, adding to voter concerns about soaring health-care costs ahead of November elections. A study released on Tuesday showed premiums for employer-sponsored health plans, which cover about 149 million Americans, grew a modest 4 percent to $15,745 in 2012. It was a substantially slower rate of growth than in past years, including 2011, when premiums jumped 9 percent. But the study's authors at the nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation and the Health Research and Educational Trust, said higher costs still took a bigger bite from the income of middle-class employees, whose wages advanced only 1.7 percent, as employers shifted more health-care costs to their workers. (Read more: Are You Better Off?) This year's 4 percent increase eclipsed a general inflation rate of 2.3 percent. Some employers told researchers that insurers plan to push premiums up another 7 percent in 2013, the study said.

Business Insider:

Zero Hedge:

USA Today:

  • Cairo Protesters Scale U.S. Embassy Wall, Remove American Flag. (pic) The news agency's reporter also says that the protesters tried to raise a black flag carrying the slogan: "There is no god but Allah and Mohammad is his messenger." Reuters said about 2,000 protesters have gathered outside the embassy and about 20 have scaled the walls. The Associated Press says the protesters were largely ultra conservative Islamists. The dozens of protesters who climbed the embassy wall tried to tear the American flag apart after failing to burn it.

CounterPunch:

  • Canada’s Housing Bubble Set to Burst. Canada’s housing bubble is about to burst, and when it does, hundreds of billions of dollars in equity will be wiped out, unemployment will spike, and the economy will sink into a protracted slump. We know this will happen, because the same scenario unfolded in the US, Japan, Ireland and Spain. Housing bubbles always end badly.

Real Clear Politics:

Reuters:

  • Obama won't meet Netanyahu over Iran row -Israeli official. The White House has rejected a request by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to meet President Barack Obama in the United States this month, an Israeli official said on Tuesday, after a row erupted between the allies over Iran's nuclear programme. An Israeli official told Reuters on condition of anonymity that Netanyahu's aides had asked for a meeting when he visits the United Nations this month, and "the White House has got back to us and said it appears a meeting is not possible. It said that the president's schedule will not permit that".
  • Canada's Flaherty cites U.S. fiscal woes as potential threat. Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said on Tuesday there is growing concern about the capacity of the United States to tighten its budget as needed while continuing to grow, and said this and the European debt crisis could seriously harm Canada. "While we are not currently facing the depths of the downturn of a few years ago, the global economy remains stubbornly fragile. Any potential offshore setbacks could generate serious adverse impacts on Canada," Flaherty said in a speech in St. John's, Newfoundland. "For example, growth in a number of emerging-market economies is slowing, and concerns are growing about the capacity of the U.S. to balance the necessary fiscal consolidation while sustaining economic growth," he said, adding that the most immediate threat is the banking crisis in Europe.

Telegraph:

  • The UK is already taxed to death - a levy on wealth would be the last straw. There was a time, not so long ago, when only cranks or embittered class warriors would have backed a wealth tax, an idea that has failed spectacularly in every country in which it has been tried. No longer.
  • Only the German people can renounce their sovereignty. Germany's leaders do not have the constitutional authority to take such a step. They are trustees only. And finally, when asked if the judges would say yes because to act otherwise means the "death of the euro the next day", he replied: "The judges will guard the constitution, but will also calculate the consequences of their decision. But are we certain that the euro will collapse if determined efforts to stabilize the markets turns out not be viable? Sounds to me as if he rejects the premise.

Kathimerini:

  • The so-called troika of inspectors from the euro area, ECB and IMF are questioning 5.6 billion euros of 11.6 billion euros of spending cuts proposed by the Greek government. About 2.5 billion euros of measures were rejected outright while the troika requested more information on an additional 3 billion euros of planned cuts for 2013 and 2014.

MacauBusiness.com:

  • Macau Sees Single-Digit Tourism Growth in 2012. The Macau Government Tourist Office director João Manuel Costa Antunes forecasts a single-digit growth rate for tourism arrivals this year. According to Portuguese-language newspaper Jornal Tribuna de Macau, Mr Antunes said again that the city would welcome a total of 30 million tourists in 2012. That would be up by 7 percent in comparison with last year’s record 28 million visitors. In 2011, tourism arrivals increased by 12.2 percent year-on-year. Previously, Mr Antunes had forecast that the number of tourist arrivals in 2012 would increase by at least 10 percent. From January to July, visitor arrivals totalled 16 million, up 1.4 percent year-on-year.

Bear Radar


Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +.05%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Internet -.16% 2) Hospitals -.14% 3) Retail -.10%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • HOTT, VRA, RL, BID, CLMT, TGA, VQ, EPB, SUI, CENT, UNFI, MTSI, SHFL, TIBX, CENTA, LRN, SON, GGP, TGH, COH, URBN, SBS, BSAC, VOC, HCII, RKT, COF, AMRN, ABAX, ABC, AAN, INWK, BCOV, FIVE and PANW
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) NAVB 2) UUP 3) CCL 4) MWW 5) DB
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) TIBX 2) ABC 3) KWR 4) AIG 5) BAC
Charts:

Bull Radar


Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value +.59%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Coal +2.78% 2) Steel +2.46% 3) Eduction +2.24%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • BCS, DB, COG, QIHU, JAZZ, CLF, LM, FSLR, RRC and GCI
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) MTG 2) NAVB 3) TIBX 4) RDN 5) LNG
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) MCD 2) HP 3) JAZZ 4) TXN 5) T
Charts:

Tuesday Watch


Evening Headlin
es
Bloomb
erg:
  • China’s Stocks Drop Most This Month on Concerns About Economy. China’s stocks fell, dragging down the benchmark index by the most this month, on concern the economic slowdown is deepening after auto sales missed analysts’ estimates and Macquarie Group Ltd. (MQG) cut its growth estimates. Anhui Conch Cement Co. (600585) and Sany Heavy Industry Co. led declines for infrastructure-related companies on speculation the shares are overvalued after both companies rallied 16 percent in three days. FAW Car Co., which makes passenger cars in China with Volkswagen AG, sank 2.2 percent after passenger-vehicle sales trailed analysts’ estimates for a second month in August and the government increased gasoline and diesel prices for the second time in about a month. The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) dropped 0.9 percent to 2,115.39 at the 11:30 a.m. local-time break, heading for the biggest decline since Aug. 29.
  • Euro Weakens From 3-Month High as Crisis Optimism Wanes. “We had a fairly sizable rally in the euro late last week,” Vassili Serebriakov, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo & Co. in New York, said in a telephone interview. “There’s still significant event risk this week, and markets are understandably in a more cautious mode.”
  • Billionaire Arnault’s Belgian Kerfuffle Boosts Hollande Tax Plan. The decision by France’s richest man, Bernard Arnault, to seek Belgian citizenship has created a media frenzy over tax exiles, giving the increasingly unpopular Socialist President Francois Hollande a chance to grandstand. Arnault, the chief executive officer of LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA (MC), the world’s biggest luxury-goods company, said his “personal action” is not aimed at sending a political message or escaping Hollande’s 75 percent tax on earnings of more than 1 million euros ($1.28 million). Still, Liberation newspaper yesterday ran a front-page headline that said “Get lost, rich bastard,” and Hollande in a televised interview on Sept. 9 said it’s patriotic to pay taxes.
  • Big Banks Hide Risk Changing Collateral for Traders. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Bank of America Corp. (BAC) are helping clients find an extra $2.6 trillion to back derivatives trades amid signs that a shortage of quality collateral will erode efforts to safeguard the financial system. Starting next year, new rules designed to prevent another meltdown will force traders to post U.S. Treasury bonds or other top-rated holdings to guarantee more of their bets. The change takes effect as the $10.8 trillion market for Treasuries is already stretched thin by banks rebuilding balance sheets and investors seeking safety, leaving fewer bonds available to backstop the $648 trillion derivatives market. The solution: At least seven banks plan to let customers swap lower-rated securities that don’t meet standards in return for a loan of Treasuries or similar holdings that do qualify, a process dubbed “collateral transformation.” That’s raising concerns among investors, bank executives and academics that measures intended to avert risk are hiding it instead. “The dealers look after their own interests, and they won’t necessarily look after the systemic risks that are associated with this,” said Darrell Duffie, a finance professor at Stanford University who has studied the derivatives and securities-lending markets. “Regulators are probably going to become aware of it once the practice gets big enough.
  • Consumer Credit in U.S. Unexpectedly Falls $3.28 Billion. Consumer borrowing in the U.S. unexpectedly decreased in July for the first time in almost a year, restrained by a second straight decline in credit-card debt. The $3.28 billion drop followed a revised $9.8 billion jump the previous month that was bigger than first estimated, the Federal Reserve said today in Washington. Economists projected a $9.2 billion rise, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Revolving credit, which includes credit card spending, decreased $4.82 billion, the most since April 2011. The drop in credit-card borrowing coincides with a slowdown in hiring this year and a rise in consumer pessimism that indicate households are wary of taking on debt. Employers added fewer workers to payrolls than forecast in August, while a gain in average hourly earnings from a year earlier matched the smallest increase since records began in 2007. “Households are definitely still in deleveraging mode, they’re hesitant to take on new debt,” said Ryan Wang, an economist at HSBC Securities USA Inc. in New York. “I think credit card debt is going to be flat to up slightly, and mortgage balances are still falling.”
  • Harrisburg Plans to Skip Payment for Second Bond Default. Harrisburg, Pennsylvania’s insolvent capital, says it will miss general-obligation bond payments for the second time this year, preserving cash to cover workers’ salaries. The city will miss $3.4 million in payments due Sept. 15 on $51.5 million of bonds issued in 1997, William B. Lynch, Harrisburg’s receiver, said today by telephone. It skipped paying $5.27 million that was due March 15 on the same bonds. “We don’t have enough money to make the payment,” he said. “High finance.”
  • Japan Banking Minister Matsushita Found Dead at His Home. Japanese Financial Services Minister Tadahiro Matsushita, who since taking the post in June led a crackdown on insider trading that triggered resignations of the top two executives at Nomura Holdings Inc. (8604), has died. He was 73.
Wall Street Journal:

MarketWatch:

  • U.S. to mark somber anniversary of 9/11. The nation will remember those killed by the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon on Tuesday, an event never far from the minds of New Yorkers, Washingtonians and all Americans.

Business Insider:

Zero Hedge:

CNBC:

  • Ad Growth Slows Dramatically in Second Quarter. The ad market screeched and skidded in the second quarter — U.S. ad spending grew just .9 percent from April to June compared to a year earlier.
  • Documents Show Former SEC Official Aided Former Targets. A former regional enforcement official at the Securities and Exchange Commission who was sanctioned in May over alleged conflicts of interest in the multi-billion dollar Allen Stanford Ponzi case has a history of such allegations, according to documents obtained by CNBC.
  • No Need to Import OPEC Oil: Pickens. The U.S. has the natural resources to one day stop importing OPEC crude oil, Boone Pickens, founder of BP Capital, told CNBC’s "Street Signs" on Monday. “There are 30 U.S. states producing oil and gas, the highest we’ve ever had,” Pickens said. Interestingly, many of these are the very swing states that could help decide the upcoming presidential election, he noted.
  • Kudlow: Fiscal Cliff Won’t Resolve for Months After Election. CNBC’s Larry Kudlow and his Washington colleagues are all hearing that lawmakers won’t attempt to seriously bridge this pressing issue until after the election.

NY Times:

  • In Rush to Build, Property Stumbles. At least 10 percent of China’s gross domestic product comes directly from the construction and real estate sectors — far more when the industries that supply them and the consumption linked to the purchase of homes are taken into account, analysts at GK Dragonomics, a research firm in Beijing, wrote in a recent report. Internationally, they added, construction in China has accounted for more than 40 percent of the growth in global demand for steel and 10 percent for copper. No wonder, then, that any signs of weakness in the sector send shivers down the backs of analysts, industry executives and policy makers alike. “The property sector is a pillar industry for the Chinese economy,” said Li-Gang Liu, an economist in Hong Kong for Australia & New Zealand Banking Group. But now, he added, it is “the weakest link in the Chinese economy.


Read more here: http://blogs.sacbee.com/capitolalertlatest/2012/08/fiscal-analyst-hundreds-of-millions-at-risk-from-facebook-slide.html#storylink=cpy
Reuters:
  • Palo Alto Networks'(PANW) Q4 beats Street amid slower growth. Security software maker Palo Alto Networks, which went public in July, promised shareholders continued revenue growth after it beat fourth-quarter revenue and earnings estimates on rising demand for protection against network security attacks. Despite beating fourth-quarter expectations, company shares fell 6.7 percent in after-hours trading after they closed with a gain of 1.43 percent to $71.75 on Monday. Some analysts noted that while revenue growth was strong, the company had not doubled revenue as it had in the past quarters.
  • U.S. burger chains aim to scoop up patrons with boozy milkshakes. Gourmet hamburger chains are spiking milkshakes with everything from beer to red wine in a bid to steal customers from "dry" rivals like McDonald's Corp . Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc on Tuesday will debut a Samuel Adams Octoberfest milkshake, made with vanilla ice cream, beer and caramel, at its roughly 460 restaurants around the country.
Financial Times:
  • For True Stimulus, Fed Should Drop QE3. The first two rounds of quantitative easing fuelled a commodity bubble, increased income inequality and set a bad example for the rest of the world. During the 16 months of round one, up to March 2010, the CRB commodity price index rose 36 per cent, while food prices rose 20 per cent and oil prices surged 59 per cent. During round two, in the eight months up to June last year, the CRB rose 10 per cent, with food up 15 per cent, while oil prices rose a further 30 per cent.
  • China in transition: Ascent of the bureaucrat. The incoming leadership appears more focused on factionalism than on much-needed reform.

Telegraph:

Passauer Neue Presse:
  • German Lawmaker Says ESM Brings Risks to German Budget. Peter Gauweiler, a conservative lawmaker from Merkel's CDU, calls for new deliberations of Germany's Federal Constitutional Court on the ESM, Europe's permanent rescue fund, citing Gauweiler.

Jerusalem Post:
  • Lieberman to 'Post': Obama should define how to stop Iran. US Senator Joseph Lieberman encouraged President Barack Obama on Monday to clearly define America's red lines when it comes to dealing with Iran's nuclear program."I hope he can find a way to really spell out with just a little more detail" what the US is willing to do to prevent Iran from become a nuclear power, Lieberman told The Jerusalem Post following an appearance at a B'nai B'rith conference.
Evening Recommendations
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -1.0% to -.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 132.50 -1.0 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 108.50 -6.0 basis points.
  • FTSE-100 futures -.60%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.23%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.17%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (UNFI)/.51
Economic Releases
7:30 am EST
  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for August is estimated to rise to 91.4 versus 91.2 in July.

8:30 am EST

  • The Trade deficit for July is estimated to widen to -$44.0B versus -$42.9B in June.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

  • The weekly retail sales reports, JOLTs Job Openings report for July, 3Y T-Note auction, EU commissioner speaking on banking union, (TXN) Mid-Quarter Update, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for Sept, BofA Merrill Healthcare Conference, CSFB Chemical/Ag Science Conference, RBC Industrials Conference, BMO Media/Telecom Conference, Intel Developer Forum and the Deutsche Bank Tech Conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.