Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Homebuilders +2.87% 2) Airlines +2.24% 3) Tobacco +.98%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- SRPT, OCN, BKD, NFLX, LCC, ALR, ARUN, SPW, DAL and FDO
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) DLPH 2) PCS 3) SRPT 4) LNC 5) EWY
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) JBLU 2) LCC 3) ITRI 4) STX 5) NFLX
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Merkel Emulates Kohl German Unity Turning Euro Crisis Into Votes. Three
days before East and West Germany reunited in 1990, Angela Merkel made
an acquaintance that was to put her on the path to power. An East German
scientist propelled into politics by the fall of the Berlin Wall and
the communist regime’s collapse, Merkel wangled an audience with Helmut
Kohl at a party event in Hamburg. Within four months, Kohl had ridden
German reunification to a landslide third election victory and Merkel
secured a post in his Cabinet. Just as Kohl knew what Germans on both
sides of the border wanted when they united 22 years ago today, Merkel
is tuned in to voters who balk at paying the price of the united Europe
Kohl
brought about. While her peers in France, Italy and Spain have
been voted out in the three years since the debt crisis emerged
in Greece, Merkel’s ability to channel domestic public opinion
paired with a still-expanding economy led polling company Forsa
to conclude that she looks unbeatable before 2013 elections. “The crisis makes people rally behind Merkel,” Gerd
Languth, a historian and professor of politics at the University
of Bonn whose 2005 biography of the chancellor documents her
meeting with Kohl, said by phone. “People see her as being on
top of the issues and the only one who can solve the problems.”
- European Bank Capital Results Overtaken by Tougher Global Rules. The Europe Union’s top bank regulator
will release figures today detailing how lenders met a 114.7
billion-euro ($148.5 billion) capital target, as the bloc is
criticized for failing to properly implement tougher global standards.
European banks boosted their capital reserves by 94.4 billion euros by a
June deadline, the European Banking Authority has said in July. The
increase is part of a plan to boost
investor confidence in the bloc’s financial system and protect
lenders from the decline in value of sovereign bonds.
- ADB Cuts Developing Asia’s Growth, Inflation Forecasts on China. The
Asian Development Bank cut the region’s inflation and growth forecasts
for this year and next, as Europe’s sovereign debt crisis and fiscal
contraction in the U.S. reduces expansions from China to India. The
Manila-based lender forecast Asia excluding Japan will expand 6.1
percent this year, according to the Asian Development Outlook 2012
Update report released today, compared with a July
estimate of 6.6 percent and an April prediction of 6.9 percent.
It also reduced the region’s inflation projection to 4.2 percent
from 4.4 percent. “Deceleration in the region’s two giants -- the People’s
Republic of China and India -- and in other major exporting
economies is tempering earlier optimism,” the ADB said. “The
ongoing sovereign debt crisis in the euro area and the looming
fiscal cliff in the U.S. pose major risks to the outlook.”
- Iron Ore Heads for Longest Bear Market in 20 Years: Commodities. Iron ore, the commodity most
leveraged to China’s growth and Australia’s biggest export
earner, is heading for the longest bear market in 20 years. Vale SA (VALE3), Rio Tinto Group and BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), which
control about two-thirds of seaborne iron ore supply, are
spending about $47 billion on new and bigger iron ore mines from
Brazil to Australia. The new cargoes are set to reach the global
market just as China changes gear to lower growth expectations,
following what may become its weakest performance since 1990. “We’re already seeing the beginning of the end of the
first phase of economic development in China,” Alberto Calderon, chief commercial officer of Melbourne-based BHP, which
is spending about $1 billion a month on its ore mines in
Australia, said last month at a conference in Canberra. “The
pace of demand for iron ore from China has slowed down by more
than half.”
- JPMorgan(JPM) Rivals Face Billions in Damages After MBS Case. JPMorgan
Chase & Co. (JPM)’s rivals may face government lawsuits claiming
tens of billions of dollars in damages tied to investor losses on
mortgage bonds after New York’s attorney general filed a fraud lawsuit
against the nation’s biggest bank by assets. A state-federal task
force set up this year to investigate misconduct in the bundling of
mortgage loans into securities will bring other cases, according to New
York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman. Investor losses in the JPMorgan
case alone will be “substantially more” than the $22.5 billion cited in
his complaint, he said. “We do expect this to be a matter of very
significant liability, and there are others to come that will also
reflect the same quantum of damages,” Schneiderman said in an interview
yesterday with Bloomberg Television’s Erik Schatzker. “We’re
looking at tens of billions of dollars, not just by one
institution, but by quite a few.”
- Samsung Targets iPhone 5 in Latest Patent Lawsuit. (video)
- Nickel Surplus May Expand to Five-Year High on New Mine Projects. A global nickel surplus may expand
for a third year to the highest level since 2008 as supply from
new mining projects outweighs China’s demand growth, Japan’s top
producer said. Supply will likely exceed demand by 60,000 metric tons in
2013, said Toru Higo, Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. (5713)’s general
manager of nickel sales and raw materials. Supply outstripped
demand by 40,000 tons this year and 22,000 tons in 2011, he said.
- U.S. Casinos Won’t Get Macau Licenses, Caesars CEO Says. The
government of Macau won’t issue any licenses for new U.S. companies to
operate casinos in the world’s largest gambling market, Gary Loveman,
chief executive officer of Caesars Entertainment Corp. (CZR), predicted.
Loveman, in a presentation yesterday to analysts and investors in Las
Vegas, said he has spoken at length with Chinese officials and that his
company was unlikely to obtain a
concession to operate a casino in Macau, the only part of China
where casino gambling is legal.
Wall Street Journal:
CNBC:
- China Services PMI Falls to 53.7 as New Orders Soften. China's normally robust services sector
weakened sharply in September, as slow growth in manufacturing finally
began to feed through to the rest of the economy, an official survey
showed on Wednesday. The
official purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the services sector fell
to 53.7 in September from 56.3 in August, weighed by lackluster new
orders, according to the latest survey from the National Bureau of
Statistics.
- The ‘Fiscal Cliff’—the Grinch That Steals Christmas?
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
TheBlaze:
National Journal:
- Obama, Romney Tied Among Likely Voters. President Obama and Mitt Romney are deadlocked among likely voters as
they prepare to square off in their first presidential debate, according
to the latest United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll. Obama and Romney each pulled in 47 percent support in the poll among likely voters.
Reuters:
- U.S. had early indications Libya attack tied to organized militants. Within hours of last month's
attacks on U.S. diplomatic facilities in Benghazi, Libya,
President Barack Obama's administration received about a dozen
intelligence reports suggesting militants connected to al Qaeda
were involved, three government sources said. Despite these reports, in public statements and private
meetings, top U.S. officials spent nearly two weeks highlighting
intelligence suggesting that the attacks were spontaneous
protests against an anti-Muslim film, while playing down the
involvement of organized militant groups.
MNI:
- China's
consumer sentiment declined in September from August, amid a slowing
economy and a lack of stimulus measures from govt. The index dropped for
a third consecutive month. Consumers' aggregate view of current
conditions fell to 91.3 in September from 95.0 in August.
Evening Recommendations
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 133.50 -3.0 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 114.25 unch.
- FTSE-100 futures -.07%.
- S&P 500 futures -.24%.
- NASDAQ 100 futures -.13%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (FDO)/.75
- (RPM)/.64
- (MON)/-.43
- (MAR)/.40
Economic Releases
8:15 am EST
- The ADP Employment Change for September is estimated at 140K versus 201K in August.
10:00 am EST
- ISM Non-Manufacturing for September is estimated to fall to 53.4 versus 53.7 in August.
10:30 am EST
- Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +1,500,000 barrels versus a -2,446,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate supplies are expected to fall by -400,000 barrels versus a -482,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -500,000 barrels versus a -481,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.1% versus a -1.5% decline the prior week.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The
weekly MBA mortgage applications report, Eurozone services PMI,
Eurozone Retail Sales, (HPQ) analyst day and the CSFB Credit Products
Conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian
indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial
shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher
and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The
Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
Broad Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Lower
- Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
- Volume: Below Average
- Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
- VIX 16.39 +.43%
- ISE Sentiment Index 154.0 +4.76%
- Total Put/Call .69 -20.69%
- NYSE Arms 1.31 +30.60%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 98.18 -.21%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 195.33 bps -2.73%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 145.32 -.19%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 218.45 -.07%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 14.25 +1.0 basis point
- TED Spread 26.75 -.75 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -26.75 +.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% +1 basis point
- Yield Curve 138.0 unch.
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $104.20/Metric Tonne unch.
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.90 -.1 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.48 +6 basis points
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating -13 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating -3 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my Biotech/Medical sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and covered some of my (EEM) short
- Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- Spain Prime Minister Rajoy Says Bailout Request Is Not Imminent. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said he has no plans to request a bailout soon, fending off mounting speculation that a bid was near. Asked at a press conference in Madrid today if a bailout
request was imminent, Rajoy said: “No.” Rajoy is weighing the terms of a Sept. 6 proposal by the
European Central Bank President to buy bonds of cash-strapped
nations including Spain if they make for a formal aid request from the euro region’s government-run rescue funds.
Reuters news agency yesterday reported that Spain is ready to seek a
bailout as soon as this weekend. As Rajoy faces unrest on the streets of
Madrid over budget cuts and a separatist movement in Catalonia, leaders
of the 17- nation euro area are confronting a tougher approach from the
German-led pro-austerity bloc and talks in Athens over keeping
emergency aid on track. The first of three summits in the next
three months is set for Oct. 18-19.
- Weber Says Euro Crisis to Persist as ECB Fails to Bring Calm. UBS
AG Chairman and former European Central Bank Governing Council member
Axel Weber said the euro region’s festering debt crisis will “continue
to linger” as the ECB fails to ease market disquiet and volatility.
“While many expect that the ECB’s strong action would bring stability to
financial markets, the risk is that the pattern of short-term rallies
and long-term uncertainty will stay with us for some future,” Weber said
today at an investment conference in Moscow organized by VTB Capital.
The program of unlimited bond purchases unveiled last month by ECB
President Mario Draghi has sought to stamp out the crisis by limiting
government borrowing
costs and giving debt-ridden nations the chance to fix their economies
and preserve the euro. Weber, who during his tenure at the ECB opposed
the central bank’s previous bond-buying plan, predicted the monetary
union will overcome the crisis even as there won’t be a “quick fix.” “The
underlying fundamental perspective is not great at the moment,” Weber
said. “Austerity programs which are badly needed to restore market
confidence and create fiscal room to maneuver will take a toll on the
economy. So this will be a rough patch that Europe is going through, but
it will get better.”
- Popular Defying Oliver Wyman Tests Allianz’s Spain Appetite. Banco
Popular Espanol SA (POP) is defying the findings of Spain’s bank stress
tests as it seeks new money from Allianz SE (ALV) and other investors
to plug a capital shortfall. The stress test by consultant Oliver Wyman showed Popular had a capital deficit of as much as 3.22 billion euros ($4.15
billion) and would earn 5.8 billion euros in pre-provision
profit from 2012 to 2014 or 4.2 billion euros in its worst-case
scenario. Popular, Spain’s sixth-largest lender by assets, said
yesterday it would have an operating profit of 7.2 billion euros
over that period as it unveiled plans for a share sale of as
much as 2.5 billion euros to boost capital.
- U.K. Would Benefit From Haven Flows in Euro Breakup, Bootle Says. Britain
may initially benefit from
capital flows in the event of a euro-area breakup as investors seek
safety from turmoil in the currency region, said former U.K. Treasury
adviser Roger Bootle. “We would find the U.K. being regarded as a safe haven with continued capital inflows for a while,” Bootle, founder of
Capital Economics Ltd., said in an interview at an event in
London today. “But we’re certainly not a safe haven in terms of
the real economy -- we would be one of the hardest hit of all.”
- U.S.
Hot-Rolled Steel Prices May Extend Decline Amid Weak Demand. The price
of hot-rolled coil steel in the U.S. may drop to as low as $530 a metric
ton by year-end amid weak demand as manufacturers hold off on purchases
until after the presidential election, according to Jefferies &
Co. "A lot of projects and other expenditures that were earlier planned
by companies have been put on hold because of uncertainty ahead of the
elections and the fiscal cliff," Luke Folta, an analyst at Jefferies,
said today in an interview. "Demand has weakened across all key
markets."
- Banks Face Worst Equities Trading Since 2006. Wall Street banks’ equities-trading units aren’t
getting much relief from the strongest stock rally since 2009, as
sinking volume and already thin margins threaten to make their annual
performance the worst in six years. Third-quarter
equities-trading revenue probably fell 14 percent from the same period
in 2011, the fifth straight drop of more than 8 percent, according to
estimates by Kian Abouhossein, a JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst.
Full-year revenue at the five largest U.S. investment banks may be the lowest since 2006, UBS AG’s Brennan Hawken wrote in a Sept. 19 note to clients.
- AIG(AIG) Says Oversight Panel Weighing Systemic Risk Label. American International Group Inc. (AIG) said a U.S. panel told the insurer it’s under consideration to
be labeled a potential risk to the financial system, the first
non-bank to report such notification in a process that could
lead to tighter capital rules. The Financial Stability Oversight Council informed AIG of
its status, the New York-based insurer said today in a
statement. The council said last week that it voted to advance
“certain” non-bank financial companies to a third stage of
review for possible designation as a systemically important
financial institution, without publicly identifying the firms.
Wall St. Journal:
Fox News:
-
Diplomats asked repeatedly for more security before Libya attack, lawmakers claim. U.S. diplomats in Libya repeatedly asked the Obama administration for
more security in Benghazi in the run-up to the Sept. 11 attack on the
consulate but were "denied these resources," two congressional lawmakers
said. House oversight committee Chairman Darrell Issa, R-Calif., and Rep.
Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah, pressed Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for
more information on those requests and other concerns in a letter
Tuesday. They detailed a string of attacks and other security incidents in
Benghazi starting in April, and asked the State Department what measures
it took to address the threat. They claimed officials have told the
House Oversight and Government Reform Committee of "repeated requests"
for additional security. "Based on information provided to the Committee by individuals with
direct knowledge of events in Libya, the attack that claimed the
Ambassador's life was the latest in a long line of attacks on Western
diplomats and officials in Libya in the months leading up to September
11, 2012," they wrote. "In addition, multiple U.S. federal government
officials have confirmed to the Committee that, prior to the September
11 attack, the U.S. mission in Libya made repeated requests for
increased security in Benghazi. The mission in Libya, however, was
denied these resources by officials in Washington."
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
- Spain jobless rate spikes again as tourist season ends.
Spain's jobless
rate rose further in September as services sector layoffs accelerated at
the end of a busy summer tourist season, suggesting one in four of the
country's workforce is now unemployed. Tuesday's Labour Ministry data
showed the jobless rate rose by 1.7 percent to leave 4.7 million people
out of work. "There
is a certain slowing down in the rate of increase in unemployment but
the negative side is that jobs are still disappearing," said Estefania
Ponte, head of economy at trading house Cortal Consors. The figure had
also risen in August after it fell during the summer season. She said Tuesday's monthly figures suggested the rate of unemployment in Spain - already the highest in the European Union - would likely have hit 25 percent in the third quarter.
- U.S. officials see more financial crisis cases after JPMorgan suit. Federal and state officials pledged on Tuesday to bring more cases
against misconduct that fueled the financial crisis, after New York sued
JPMorgan Chase & Co late Monday over mortgage-backed securities
packaged and sold by Bear Stearns. The case was
filed by New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman, and was the first
action to come from a federal-state working group created earlier this
year to bring such cases, roughly four years after the peak of the
crisis.
- Iran's Ahmadinejad says Syria crisis may engulf region. Iran's President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad on Tuesday warned that hostilities in Syria could
engulf the region and accused some Syrians of trying to use
their country's conflict to settle scores with Tehran.
- US gasoline demand falls in 2 weeks to Sept 28-MasterCard. U.S. retail gasoline demand
fell over the past two weeks and continued a downward
year-on-year trend, according to the bi-weekly SpendingPulse
report from MasterCard released on Tuesday. Gasoline use in the world's top oil consumer dropped 0.9
percent over the two weeks ending Sept. 28, compared with the
same period last year, MasterCard said. Demand dipped by 1.1
percent during the week to Sept. 28 and 0.8 percent in the week
to Sept. 21 when compared with year-ago levels.
- Portugal finmin likely to detail new austerity steps. Portugal's Finance Minister Vitor
Gaspar will hold a press conference on Wednesday on the
country's bailout plan, when he is expected to detail fresh
austerity measures. The centre-right government has been looking for alternative
ways to meet budget goals under the 78-billion-euro bailout
since it was forced to back down on a plan to hike social
security taxes, which sparked a backlash among many Portuguese.
- US groups fear Mexican trade war over Obama tomato move. U.S. business groups said on
Tuesday they were worried about a damaging trade war with Mexico
if President Barack Obama's administration follows through on a
preliminary decision to end a 16-year-old tomato trade
agreement. They also expressed concern that last week's Commerce
Department decision was politically motivated to sway voters in
Florida, the second largest U.S. tomato producer and one of a
handful of battleground states expected to play a decisive role
in the Nov. 6 presidential election.
- GM(GM), Ford(F) see slower truck sales as Toyota gains. General Motors Co, the
largest U.S. automaker, posted a small gain in September U.S.
sales as demand for passenger cars offset a drop in pickup
trucks, while Japanese automaker Toyota Motor Corp
reported a large sales increase.
- Iran to enrich uranium to 60 pct if nuclear talks fail - MP. Iran would enrich uranium up to 60 percent purity if negotiations with major powers over its nuclear programme fail, an Iranian lawmaker said on
Tuesday, in comments that may add to Western alarm about Iranian
intentions.
Telegraph:
Europa:
- Prime
Minister Mariano Rajoy told regional leaders from his People's Party
that he won't request a bailout for Spain this weekend.
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformer:
- 1) Restaurants -1.40% 2) Coal -1.33% 3) Steel -1.05%
Stocks Faling on Unusual Volume:
- CLB,
CMG, BTH, MRCY, ISIS, SBGI, ECYT, MSCI, GEL, UBA, SFL, FNP, PATK,
VCRA, SDT, Z, LL, TSU, AYI, RTN, MOS, CYNO, SKX, RPM, ARUN, APOG, FEIC,
MKSI, FNP, SKX and EXPR
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) CDE 2) WFR 3) DAL 4) EWJ 5) NLY
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) FITB 2) ATI 3) MOS 4) Z 5) MSCI
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Telecom +1.47% 2) Biotech +.83% 3) Oil Tankers +.62%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) CELG 2) CMCSK 3) LEAP 4) WLP 5) SYK
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) ZUMZ 2) GPN 3) JEC 4) HRS 5) VZ
Charts: