Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Gaming +2.55% 2) Networking +2.54% 3) Hospitals +2.42%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- TSLA, TTM, INFN, VRX, YY, PCRX, TIF, AMBA, MAKO, HMA and AMTD
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) AVP 2) TIF 3) UUP 4) CLSN 5) HTZ
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) BK 2) TXN 3) LLY 4) MAKO 5) LMT
Charts:
Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Asian Stocks Pare Loss as Yen Falls, Boosting Exporters.
Asian stocks pared losses, with volatility in Japanese shares reaching
the highest in more than two years, as a weakening yen boosted the
earnings outlook for exporters. Woolworths Ltd. (WOW) sank 1.1 percent, a
fifth day of declines for Australia’s largest retailer. Toho Holdings
Co. lost 5.3 percent as the maker of medical equipment said it will
raise funds to reinvestment in capital. Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s
biggest carmaker, climbed 3.2 percent as a weakening yen boosted the
earnings outlook for Japanese exporters. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.1 percent to 136.77 as of 11:05 a.m. in Hong Kong, with about three stocks rising for
every two that fell.
Business Insider:
Welt:
- German Anti-Euro Party Says Euro Breakup Matter of Time. Bernd
Lucke, the Alternative for Germany party's leader, comments in an
interview. The government is delaying a breakup of the currency through
cash payments, increasing the amount German citizens will have to pay in
the end, Lucke said. Lucke says he fears the breakup, which will be
"completely out of control" when it happens, will lead to "major
disruptions," including not being able to pay social benefits and
pensions.
Sueddeutsche Zeitung:
- Munich Re CEO Says Some EU States Worry Him, Nikolaus von Bomhard
says France is causing him "big concern" as the country is missing
"important first steps" in reforms, citing interview.
People's Daily:
- China Shouldn't Rely on Economic Stimulus. China should not rely
on issuing stimulus policies similar to the ones introduced in the past
for its economic growth, citing Li Xuesong, a researcher at the Chinese
Academy of Social Sciences. Since China's GDP continues to grow, the
size of the stimulus needed will get larger, therefore using stimulus is
not sustainable, the report cites Li as saying. China will not
introduce a new 4t yuan stimulus plan, the report says.
Night Trading
- Asian indices are unch. to +.50% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 109.50 +3.5 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 93.75 +2.0 basis points.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.48%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
9:00 am EST
- The S&P/CS 20 City MoM% SA for March is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +1.24% gain in February.
10:00 am EST
- The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for May is estimated to rise to -4 versus -6 in April.
- Consumer Confidence for May is estimated to rise to 71.0 versus 68.1 in April.
10:30 am EST
- The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for May is estimated to rise to -10.0 versus -15.6 in April.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The Italian 10Y auction, Eurozone retail sales data, BoJ's Kuroda speaking, 2Y T-Note auction and the (LSTR) Mid-Quarter Update could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by automaker and consumer staple shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Tuesday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.
BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on rising global growth fears, more Mideast unrest, Eurozone debt angst, profit-taking, more shorting and technical selling. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.
S&P 500 1,649.60 -1.07%*
The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
*5-Day Change
Indices
- Russell 2000 984.28 -1.20%
- S&P 500 High Beta 25.53 -1.77%
- Value Line Geometric(broad market) 426.16 -1.08%
- Russell 1000 Growth 753.90 -1.31%
- Russell 1000 Value 837.57 -1.02%
- Morgan Stanley Consumer 1,019.37 -1.27%
- Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,220.95 -1.26%
- Morgan Stanley Technology 759.88 -1.79%
- Transports 6,395.70 -2.34%
- Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 96.74 -4.24%
- MSCI Emerging Markets 42.54 -1.76%
- HFRX Equity Hedge 1,124.43 -.24%
- HFRX Equity Market Neutral 938.97 +.07%
Sentiment/Internals
- NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 191,103 -.09%
- Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -76 -685
- Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 21.88 +9.40%
- CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 268,944 +15.63%
- CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,742,051 -.95%
- Total Put/Call 1.27 +58.75%
- ISE Sentiment 70.0 -22.22%
- Volatility(VIX) 13.99 +12.37%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 53.74 -5.29%
- G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.98 +.40%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.49 +6.5%
- Smart Money Flow Index 12,165.66 +.22%
- Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.601 Trillion +.80%
Futures Spot Prices
- Reformulated Gasoline 283.90 -2.1%
- Heating Oil 285.69 -2.81%
- Bloomberg Base Metals Index 191.44 -.71%
- US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 349.33 USD/Ton unch.
- China Iron Ore Spot 123.20 USD/Ton +.08%
- UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,478.69 +.54%
Economy
- ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 6.8% -20 basis points
- Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.3206 +9.61%
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 115.72 +.14%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -15.30 +2.2 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -51.0 -3.6 points
- Fed Fund Futures imply 46.0% chance of no change, 54.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 6/19
- US Dollar Index 83.70 -.60%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.61 -1.13%
- Yield Curve 176.0 +5 basis points
- 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.01% +6 basis points
- Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.356 Trillion +1.35%
- U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 30.26 +1.49%
- Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 119.0 +1.71%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 81.59 -4.57%
- Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 188.09 +6.41%
- Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 117.12 -4.0%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 408.0 +8 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25% -1 basis point
- TED Spread 23.75 -.5 basis point
- 2-Year Swap Spread 16.0 +1.5 basis points
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.0 +3.25 basis points
- N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 75.49 +7.54%
- European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 142.35 +8.81%
- Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 259.92 +5.44%
- CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 106.0 +8 basis points
- M1 Money Supply $2.520 Trillion +.13%
- Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,033.40 +2.0%
- 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 339,500 +200
- Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.3% unch.
- Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.59% +8 basis points
- Weekly Mortgage Applications 791.0 -9.77%
- Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -29.4 +.8 point
- Weekly Retail Sales +2.60% -20 basis points
- Nationwide Gas $3.65/gallon +.03/gallon
- Baltic Dry Index 828.0 -2.59%
- China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,057.92 -1.13%
- Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 30.0 +33.3%
- Rail Freight Carloads 250,156 +.76%
Best Performing Style
Worst Performing Style
Leading Sectors
Lagging Sectors
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (12)
- SKS, WBSN, RUE, SSNI, BAH, CBST, LPS, DY, PNX, SGNT, SCTY and MNRO
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (14)
- CCL, ARRS, RPAI, MDCO, FPO, HGG, DXM, HR, IRWD, UNXL, OSIS, IGTE, TISI and GME
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change
Today's Market Take:
Broad Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
- Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
- Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- ISE Sentiment Index 78.0 -10.34%
- Total Put/Call 1.23 +23.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 75.64 +3.27%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 142.35 +4.70%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 78.66 -1.26%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 259.92 +1.24%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 16.0 +.5 bp
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.0 +.5 bp
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $123.20/Metric Tonne n/a
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -15.30 +2.5 points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25 unch.
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating -342 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +13 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical sector longs and emerging markets shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my to (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
- Market Exposure: 50% Net Long