Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Disk Drive -4.66% 2) Social Media -3.4% 3) Gaming -2.66%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- SBRA, WFM, SSNI, AOL, AEGR, NVDQ, GNC, RMB, FEYE, EXAM, SFM, TFM, ZU, ATHN, TWTR, NGVC, BDC, KMPR, PRGO, SAPE, WBAI, YHOO, CG, VSI, UNFI, TRMB, WTI, QLYS, SAPE, VEEV, XON, MDSO, FNGN, FUEL, POWR, PRGO, MYGN, CNVR, TREX, THOR, SALE, WDAY, CYNO, MTDR, NOW, GWRE, IMPV, DATA, CYH, CG, FSLR, EXAM, Z, DWRE, APO, KKR, CSU, CTSH, N, VOYA, ECOM, FMC, CNQR, ISIS, QRE, SWI, CRAY, EGOV, ROC, SWFT, WYNN, MEMP, TSRA and THRX
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) FNSR 2) XBI 3) WFM 4) M 5) WYNN
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) MCD 2) TGT 3) JPM 4) KMP 5) CRUS
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) HMOs +1.85% 2) Utilities +1.09% 3) REITs +.87%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- YPF, EA, ARRS, XEC, CZR, ACAS, MDLZ, ATVI, ECA, LYV, STRA, PEGA, XEC, FRGI and PXD
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) ATVI 2) RDN 3) WFM 4) EA 5) ACAS
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) CHK 2) MDLZ 3) EA 4) HUM 5) JCP
Charts:
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 125.25 -1.25 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 87.25 -.5 basis point.
- NASDAQ 100 futures -.07%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Preliminary 1Q Non-Farm Productivity is estimated to fall -1.2% versus a +1.8% gain in 4Q.
- Preliminary 1Q Unit Labor Costs are estimated to rise +2.8% versus a -.1% decline in 4Q.
10:30 am EST
- Bloomberg
Consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of
+1,150,000 barrels versus a +1,698,000 barrel gain the prior week.
Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -40,000 barrels versus a
+1,564,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate supplies are estimated
to rise by +880,000 barrels versus a +1,936,000 barrel gain the prior
week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.37% versus
unch. the prior week.
3:00 pm EST
- Consumer Credit for March is estimated at $15.5B versus $16.489B in February.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The
Fed's Yellen speaking, German Factory Orders, Australia Unemployment
Report, $24B 10Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA mortgage applications
report, Wells Fargo Industrial/Construction Conference, Deutsche Bank
Health Care Conference, BofA Merrill Transport Conference, (IRBT)
analyst day, (WOR) investor day and the (SNDK) analyst day could impact
trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
- Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
- Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 13.78 +3.69%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.70 -.10%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.57 -2.20%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 58.05 +1.06%
- ISE Sentiment Index 91.0 -19.47%
- Total Put/Call .89 +3.49%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 65.55 +1.67%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 78.71 +.69%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 33.60 -1.57%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 87.37 -.58%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 281.21 -.16%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 352.88 +.45%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 13.75 -.25 basis point
- TED Spread 20.5 -.25 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.
- Yield Curve 217.0 -2.0 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $106.0/Metric Tonne +.09%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -12.0 +.6 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -29.10 +.1 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.16 -2.0 basis points
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating -230 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating -16 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/tech/retail sector longs and emerging markets shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- Ukraine Names New Ground Forces Head as Eastern Death Toll Rises. Ukraine
should postpone a May 25 presidential election until it changes its
constitution, Russia said, as the government in Kiev continued a deadly
military push to stamp out separatists in the country’s east and south.
Ukraine’s acting President Oleksandr Turchynov named a new commander of
ground forces following fighting that killed four government servicemen
and more than 30 rebels. In Vienna, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei
Lavrov and European Union officials discussed a new meeting following
the unraveling of a deal aimed at solving the crisis agreed to in Geneva
last month. In their worst standoff with Russia since the Cold War, the
U.S. and EU have slapped sanctions on people and companies close to
President Vladimir Putin and say he’s supporting separatism in Ukraine
ahead of the presidential ballot. French President Francois Hollande
warned Putin that Europe would continue to pressure him to allow the
vote happen, because thwarting it would produce “chaos and a risk of
war.”
- China Property Slump Adds Danger to Local Finances. China’s weakening property market poses an increasing danger to local governments, threatening to strain their finances and intensify an economic slowdown. Land sales in 20 major cities fell 5 percent in March from
a year earlier, the biggest drop in at least a year, according
to China Real Estate Information Corp. data compiled by
Bloomberg. The value of land sales in third-tier cities declined
27 percent last month, according to SouFun Holdings Ltd., the
nation’s biggest real-estate website owner. Failure to find other revenue sources increases the risk of
defaults and financial turmoil that curb economic expansion
already projected this year at the slowest pace since 1990.
- China’s PBOC to Boost Property, LGFV Credit Supervision. China will strengthen monitoring of credit extended to local government financing vehicles, real estate developers and industries facing overcapacity, the nation’s central bank said. The People’s Bank of China is taking steps to minimize potential contagion to the entire financial system from risks in those areas, according to a quarterly monetary-policy report posted on its website yesterday. China will also strictly control lending to high-emission industries and those with overcapacity,the PBOC said in
yesterday’s report.
- OECD Trims Global Growth Forecast as Emerging Markets Cool. The Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development cut its global growth forecast as
expansions in China and other emerging markets slow. The world economy will expand 3.4 percent this year instead
of the 3.6 percent predicted in November, the Paris-based
organization said in a semi-annual report today. China will grow
7.4 percent, down from a previous projection of 8.2 percent.
- European Stocks Drop for Third Day as Barclays Retreats.
European stocks fell for a third day, the longest streak since March,
with Barclays Plc (BARC) helping push shares lower, while tension in
Ukraine escalated. Barclays fell the most since July after reporting that
pretax profit dropped. Balfour Beatty Plc sank 20 percent after
its chief executive officer quit and the company cut its
earnings forecast. Deutsche Lufthansa AG rose 3 percent after
saying its first-quarter loss narrowed. PostNL NV rallied the most since October. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 0.3 percent to 336.04 at
the close of trading, after earlier gaining as much as 0.3
percent.
- Junk Bonds Pricier Than Stocks Mean High-Yield Getting Expensive. Get ready to pay more to earn less
relative to stocks if you’re looking to jump into the high-yield debt market. Junk-bond
investors are accepting yields that are 0.74 percentage point lower
than the earnings yield on the Standard & Poor’s 500 index, a
measure of profit as a percentage of equity prices. Historically, debt
rated below investment grade has yielded an average 4.2 percentage
points more than stocks since March
1995. That relationship has been turned on its head. Does this mean stocks are cheap or bonds too expensive? Junk debt may be the loser here.
Wall Street Journal:
- Deadly Ukraine Fire Likely Sparked by Rebels, Government Says. Rebels Accidentally Dropped Molotov Cocktails on Roof, According to Preliminary Investigation. A horrific fire that killed dozens in a hulking Odessa building where
pro-Russian protesters had taken cover was likely sparked by rebels on
the roof who accidentally dropped Molotov cocktails, according to a
preliminary investigation by the government.
- China’s Property Bubble Has Already Popped, Report Says. China’s great real-estate bust has begun, says Nomura.
A combination of a huge oversupply of housing and a shortage of
developer financing is producing a housing market downturn that could
drive China’s GDP to less than 6% this year.
MarketWatch:
- Einhorn on quizzing Bernanke: Answers weren’t any better than I thought they would be. (video) On Bloomberg Television, he regaled what went down in a recent dinner
he had with the former Federal Reserve chairman — and the hedge-fund
manager didn’t come away impressed.
“The answers weren’t any better than I thought they would be,” Einhorn said. First, he was unsettled by Bernanke’s conviction that there would not be hyperinflation as a result of quantitative easing.
CNBC:
ZeroHedge:
Business Insider:
Washington Post:
CBS:
BBC:
@MiddleEast_BRK:
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Social Media -3.41% 2) Homebuilders -2.51% 3) Biotech -1.55%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- KODK, ININ, TWTR, AEIS, FN, ATHN, RWT, DISCK, HGR, TREX, SUSS, FLDM, ECOM, SALE, SGY, EXLP, SZYM, RLGY, DISCA, YY, MED, FMS, VECO, AIG, TGT, DISCA, RLGY, ROSE, AIG, AXLL, VECO, TW, MNTA, SGY and ECOM
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) APA 2) AIG 3) TGT 4) EWW 5) TOL
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) TWTR 2) GM 3) MOS 4) BK 5) KBR
Charts:
