Thursday, May 08, 2014

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value +.14%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Education -1.71% 2) Gaming -1.53% 3) Utilities -1.26%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • TSLA, NICE, GPOR, LQDT, TDC, GEOS, AMCX, TROX, IILG, BDBD, CIE, PMT, ANDE, HMHC, LXFR, WMC, RGP, NPSP, DST, QRE, BRSS, KERX, NKA, ICE, AEGR, NVDA, BRDR, ICE, ARP, NLY, PHH, UNT, CVRR, RGP, DF, RNG, CLR, PODD, TXTR, WMC, GEOS, VNDA and ISBC
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) MCP 2) HES 3) MMM 4) HD 5) NUAN
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CVX 2) TDC 3) PSA 4) CLF 5) ACI
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value +.27%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Social Media +2.71% 2) Semis +1.71% 3) Retail +1.54%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CTL, BCS, TWTR, AVG, WAC, FOX, EXPD, GMCR, SCTY, WWAV, CSLT, STE, Z, GIMO, NSM, HAIN, FUEL, BRKR, FOXA, YELP, SONC, CTL, SFM, LB, SSNI, LNKD and PENN
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) CTL 2) CHTP 3) END 4) KERX 5) ODP
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) PCLN 2) TWTR 3) FEYE 4) LMT 5) F
Charts:
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 125.0 -.25 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 86.0 -1.25 basis points.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.15%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.01%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures  +.08%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (PCP)/3.20
  • (HAIN)/.86
  • (REGN)/2.27
  • (ICE)/2.61
  • (DF)/.00
  • (CBS).74
  • (LPX)/-.06
  • (DISH)/.43
  • (CVC)/.05
  • (WEN)/.05
  • (CECO)/-.39
  • (PCLN)/6.90
  • (APA)/1.60
  • (CSC)/1.04
  • (SYMC)/.42
  • (NWSA)/.43
  • (JAZZ)/1.87
  • (MNST)/.49
  • (JOE)/-.01
  • (ANDE)/1.03
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 325K versus 344K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2758K versus 2771K prior. 
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Yellen speaking, Fed's Plosser speaking, Fed's Evans speaking, Fed's Bullard speaking, Fed's Taruillo speaking, ECB rate decision, BoE decision, ECB's Draghi speaking, China CPI/Trade Balance, $16B 30Y bond auction, Bloomberg US Economic Survey for May, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (THC) annual meeting and the (BSX) investor day could impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Wednesday, May 07, 2014

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Central Bank Hopes, Yen Weakness, Short-Covering, Healthcare/Utility Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.71 -.65%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.74 -.04%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.54 -.40%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 58.04 +.73%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 79.0 -10.23%
  • Total Put/Call .87 -3.33% 
  • NYSE Arms 1.0 -30.30% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 65.20 -.78%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 75.57 -3.98%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 33.01 -1.77%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 86.87 -.45%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 270.43 -3.93%
  • China Blended Corporate Spread Index 355.26 +.67%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 13.75 unch.
  • TED Spread 19.75 -.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% +1 basis point
  • Yield Curve 218.0 +1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $105.10/Metric Tonne -.85%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -11.20 +.8 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -27.70 +1.4 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.16 unch.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +89 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +12 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/tech/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth -1.10%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Disk Drive -4.66% 2) Social Media -3.4% 3) Gaming -2.66%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • SBRA, WFM, SSNI, AOL, AEGR, NVDQ, GNC, RMB, FEYE, EXAM, SFM, TFM, ZU, ATHN, TWTR, NGVC, BDC, KMPR, PRGO, SAPE, WBAI, YHOO, CG, VSI, UNFI, TRMB, WTI, QLYS, SAPE, VEEV, XON, MDSO, FNGN, FUEL, POWR, PRGO, MYGN, CNVR, TREX, THOR, SALE, WDAY, CYNO, MTDR, NOW, GWRE, IMPV, DATA, CYH, CG, FSLR, EXAM, Z, DWRE, APO, KKR, CSU, CTSH, N, VOYA, ECOM, FMC, CNQR, ISIS, QRE, SWI, CRAY, EGOV, ROC, SWFT, WYNN, MEMP, TSRA and THRX
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) FNSR 2) XBI 3) WFM 4) M 5) WYNN
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) MCD 2) TGT 3) JPM 4) KMP 5) CRUS
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value +.27%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) HMOs +1.85% 2) Utilities +1.09% 3) REITs +.87%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • YPF, EA, ARRS, XEC, CZR, ACAS, MDLZ, ATVI, ECA, LYV, STRA, PEGA, XEC, FRGI and PXD
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) ATVI 2) RDN 3) WFM 4) EA 5) ACAS
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) CHK 2) MDLZ 3) EA 4) HUM 5) JCP
Charts: