Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.25%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Coal -5.73% 2) Retail -2.01% 3) Utilities -1.83%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• P, HURN, FTNT, SRCL, VFC, MMSI, SKX, EXCU, PAH, MKTO, LHO, ADUS, EROS, WHR, N, TRIB, QLIK, SSYS, PEB, UA, SAVE, COLM, CHSP, FL, KODK, DKS, LOGM, BKE, CHSP, IPHI, RL, SYK, HPT, DSW, BCR, USG, KLXI, STT, PANW, DECK, SWN, N, SHOO, PVH, CRR, DDD, PEB, GIII, GHL, SSYS and HURN

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) XLU 2) VFC 3) IYR 4) FXI 5) TGT
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NE 2) SRCL 3) UA 4) FEYE 5) WMT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.95%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Hospitals +4.46% 2) Gaming +4.23% 3) Internet +3.72%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• NTGR, ATHN, BJRI, RLYP, SPNC, VRX, CYH, EVHC, QSII, MSFT, GIMO, QLGC, ALGN, GOOG, AMZN, SPNC, AKRX, CONN, TMH, TEN, AHS, COF, FET, LXK, ABBV, VRSN, TRN and CY

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) MDLZ 2) EVEP 3) TRN 4) HST 5) SKX
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) COF 2) QSII 3) RCL 4) SYNA 5) JNPR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +28.0% Above 100-Day Average
• 6 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 58.4% of Issues Advancing, 37.8% Declining
• 123 New 52-Week Highs, 43 New Lows
• 35.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.4
• Vix 14.5
• Total Put/Call .84
• TRIN/Arms 1.1

Friday Watch

Evening Recommendations 

Piper:

• Raised (MCD) to Overweight.

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are +.50% to +1.50% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 135.25 -4.75 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 74.25 -4.0 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.48 +.19%. 

• S&P 500 futures +.21%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.46%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

• (AAL)/2.72
• (ALV)/1.45
• (B)/.64
• (COG)/.00
• (LEA)/2.37
• (LYB)/2.57
• (PG)/.94
• (RCL)/2.71
• (STT)/1.24
• (TEN)/1.20
• (VFC)/1.12
• (WHR)/3.29

Economic Releases

9:45 am EST

• The Preliminary Markit US Manufacturing PMI for October is estimated to fall to 52.7 versus 53.1 in September. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PMI report and the China Home Price report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Tech/Restaurant Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Slightly Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.11 -9.52%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.12 -1.40%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.90 -.91%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 60.16 -3.43%

• ISE Sentiment Index 79.0 -26.85%

• Total Put/Call .93 -3.12%

• NYSE Arms 1.23 -9.26% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 80.48 -2.08%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,074.0 +.03%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 71.25 -3.39%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 19.16 -7.04%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 74.83 -4.44%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 329.33 -2.0%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 121.80 +.05%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 12.25 +1.5 basis points

• TED Spread 32.5 +1.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -28.5 -3.75 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.34 +.08%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .00% unch.

• Yield Curve 143.0 +2.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $52.18/Metric Tonne -1.16%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.30 +.3 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 8.70 -.3 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -15.40 +.2 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.48 +2.0 basis points
• # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 6.33 -.04

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +484 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +125 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +69 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• Draghi Signals ECB May Add Stimulus This Year on Weak Growth. (video) Mario Draghi said the European Central Bank will investigate fresh stimulus measures to boost the economy and that options include a further reduction in the deposit rate. The euro slid as the ECB president said the Governing Council has tasked the central bank’s committees with examining the pros and cons of different monetary-policy action. He told reporters at a press conference after the meeting in Malta on Thursday that there was a “rich discussion” about the instruments that might be used, while hinting fresh stimulus may be added before the end of the year.
• What Draghi said on QE, Policy Outlook, Global Risks and Inflation.
• The Strong U.S. Dollar Challenge for Emerging Markets. (video)
• China's Record Capital Outflows Put Tobin Tax Back on the Agenda. China has for the second time this month raised the possibility of taxing foreign-exchange transactions as record capital outflows from the world’s second-largest economy put pressure on the yuan. "We are currently studying measures including Tobin Tax, unremunerated reserve requirement and handling fees for foreign-exchange trading to suppress any abnormal and significant flows of short-term funds that seek arbitrage," Wang Xiaoyi, deputy administrator of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said Thursday at a press conference in Beijing. Central bank Deputy Governor Yi Gang called for such punitive measures to be introduced to deter currency speculators in China Finance magazine, a People’s Bank of China publication.
• Hyundai Profit Falls More Than Estimated on China Slowdown. Hyundai Motor Co. reported quarterly profit fell more than analysts’ estimates, after a slump in China deliveries overshadowed gains in SUV sales in the U.S., Europe and South Korea. Net income dropped 23 percent from a year earlier to 1.17 trillion won ($1 billion) in the three months through September, the seventh consecutive year-on-year quarterly decline, the Seoul-based company said Thursday. That compares with the 1.48 trillion won average of 21 analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Sales rose to 23.4 trillion won from 21.28 trillion won a year earlier. Hyundai’s worldwide deliveries slipped for a third straight quarter, dragged down by weak demand in China, Russia and Brazil.  
• Man Charged With Salvaging Korean Shippers Sees Gloomy Prospects. Alfred Kim, the man in charge of helping salvage South Korea’s shipping industry at the state-funded bad loan company, doesn’t sound too optimistic. “Nobody knows what the future is like as the shipping industry is still facing a tough time now,” said Alfred Kim, the fund’s project manager at Korea Asset Management Corp., based in Busan. “There’s large supply of ships, the Chinese economy isn’t doing very good. Right now, it’s very difficult to secure loans from the credit market and banks don’t want to invest more of their money on the shipping side.” 
• Draghi's Policy Update Sends European Stocks to Two-Month High. Mario Draghi gave stock investors what they wanted. European shares spiked after the European Central Bank president said the ECB will re-examine the degree of stimulus in December, adding that the quantitative-easing program will continue until beyond September 2016 if needed. The central bank also discussed lowering deposit rates, Draghi said. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 2 percent, the most since Oct. 5, to 369.99 at the close of trading in London.
• Vale(VALE) Earnings Slide as Metal Meltdown Blunts Cost Cutting. Vale SA, the world’s biggest iron-ore and nickel miner, reported a decline in quarterly earnings as slumping prices overshadowed efforts to focus on higher quality deposits and cut costs. Third-quarter adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization fell 15 percent from a year ago $1.88 billion, the Rio de Janeiro-based company said Thursday in a statement. That compared with the $1.86 billion average of 11 dollar-based estimates compiled by Bloomberg. On a net basis, Vale had a loss of $2.12 billion on currency and derivative losses.
• Gold, Silver Shine Again as Investors Add $393 Million to ETFs. Precious metals are once again enticing investors. After ignoring the assets for most of the year, investors added $393 million to U.S. exchange-traded funds backed by precious metals this month through Oct. 20, on course for the biggest monthly inflow since February. Gold and silver are gaining favor amid increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve could wait until next year to raise interest rates. Higher rates curb the appeal of precious metals because they don’t offer interest or yields. 
• Junk-Bond Default Rate May Nearly Double in a Year, UBS Says. U.S. junk-bond defaults could nearly double by the third quarter of next year, led by energy, metal and mining companies under pressure from depressed commodities prices, according to UBS Group AG. The high-yield default rate may climb as high as 4.8 percent, UBS analysts wrote in a note to clients Thursday. The default rate for speculative-grade debt in the U.S. was at 2.5 percent at the end of September, according to Moody’s Investors Service, up from 2.1 percent in the second quarter and 1.6 percent a year earlier.
• Quebec Regulator Is Watching Valeant(VRX) Situation Closely. Quebec's AMF securities regulator says allegations about Valeant are "worrisome", is watching the situation "very seriously".
• What Valeant's(VRX) Doing 'Appears to Be Illegal': Left. (video)
• Hamptons Mansions Pile Up on Market as Luxury-Home Sales Decline. New Yorkers who want to buy a high-end retreat in the Hamptons have plenty of options to choose from. Sales of luxury homes in the area, known for its beachside mansions attracting financiers and celebrities, tumbled 16 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier to 52 transactions, according to a report Thursday from appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman. The inventory of such properties -- defined as the top 10 percent of the market by price -- climbed 34 percent to 292. Wealthy buyers on Long Island’s East End are taking a pause after several years of heated sales, leading prices to fall as more houses come to the market. The median price of Hamptons deals completed at the luxury level dropped 18 percent from a year earlier to $5.3 million, in contrast to an increase for lower-cost homes.
• McDonald’s(MCD) Shares Soar as Easterbrook Turnaround Takes Hold. (video) McDonald’s Corp. shares soared the most in almost seven years after third-quarter profit topped analysts’ estimates, showing Chief Executive Officer Steve Easterbrook’s plan to turn around the world’s largest restaurant chain is gaining traction. Profit in the quarter was $1.40 a share, the Oak Brook, Illinois-based company said in a statement Thursday. Analysts estimated $1.27, on average. And while revenue fell 5.3 percent to $6.62 billion, that beat analysts’ $6.41 billion average projection.

Fox News: 

• Clinton grilled over close contact with Blumenthal, but not Stevens, on Benghazi. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton attempted to walk a swinging tightrope Thursday as Republicans on the House committee probing the Benghazi attacks hammered away at her communications with close friend Sidney Blumenthal -- suggesting she paid more attention to his emails than a barrage of unanswered pleas from murdered envoy Chris Stevens to increase security in the face of growing terrorist threats. At the Capitol Hill hearing, Clinton insisted Blumenthal, whose frequent messages to her turned up in recently released emails, was not a primary source of information or even technically "advising" her. But when she questioned what the emails have to do with the tragedy, committee Chairman Trey Gowdy, R-S.C., contrasted the frequent and direct communication with Blumenthal against Stevens' struggle to get more security. "I think it is eminently fair to ask why Sidney Blumethal had unfettered access to you, Madam Secretary ... and there's not a single solitary email to or from you, to or from Ambassador Stevens," he said.

CNBC:

• Valeant(VRX)... there's a 'lot of smoke': Bill George. (video)  Former Medtronic CEO Bill George, discusses the controversy surrounding allegation of improper accounting at Valeant Pharmaceuticals.

Zero Hedge:

• Goldman(GS) Deconstructs Draghi's Conference, Expects "Plenty Of Downside" For EUR, Reiterates 0.95 Target. (graph)
• WTI Crude Plunges Back Towards $44 Handle, Stocks Don't Care At All. (graph)
• EURUSD Crashes 200 Pips, Biggest Drop In 9 Months. (graph)
• Chart Of The Day - Italian 2Y Bond Yields Collapse Below Zero For First Time Ever. (graph)
• Valeant(VRX) Crashes Back Below $100 As Quebec Regulator Begins Investigation. (graph) 
• Deutsche Bank Warns Bonuses Will Be Slashed As Much As 30%.  
• Existing Home Sales Surge In September (Thanks To Massive Seasonal Adjustment). (graph)
• The Morning After: Valeant Default Risk Soars After Called Next "Tyco", Sellside "Analysts" Humiliated. (graph)
• US Leading Economic Indicators Tumbles Most In 30 Months. (graph)
• Americans' Outlook For The US Economy Plunges Near 2013 'Government Shutdown' Lows. (graph)
• Chicago Fed National Activity Stagnates At 20-Month Lows. (graph)
• Initial Jobless Claims Hover At 42 Year Lows - So Who Is Lying? (graph)
• Everything’s Deflating And Nobody Seems To Notice.
• Caterpillar Shares Tumble After Company Misses Across The Board, Revenues Plunge 19%, Guidance Cut. (graph)

Business Insider:

• ISIS attacks increased by 42% in the third quarter of 2015.
• Negative gross margins.
• The oil glut appears to be getting worse.