Thursday, March 03, 2016

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
 

  • Hot Money Rolling Into China Property Seen Deflating Bond Bubble. China’s ball of hot money, which rolled from property to stocks to bonds leaving a trail of unprecedented gains and losses, looks set to come full circle. Home prices in Shenzhen, China’s southern business hub, have jumped 52 percent over the past year, while those in Shanghai surged 18 percent, prompting the official Xinhua News Agency to warn against “panic” buying. The yield premium on top-rated five-year corporate bonds over government securities has risen to 70 basis points after slumping to an eight-year low of 54 in January. “The heating up of property will hurt the bond market,” said Ji Weijie, credit analyst at China Securities Co. “Money that goes into property will not come out easily because it’s usually a long-term investment.” Global brokerages are warning China’s bond “bubble” risks a collapse similar to last summer’s Shanghai stock rout and foreign funds are heading for the exit in record numbers. While surging local demand has helped sustain a 105 percent surge in Chinese note issuance this year, investors’ shift into property assets could make refinancing harder for firms facing a record 4.8 trillion yuan ($735 billion) in onshore debt coming due this year.
  • Kuroda Says BOJ Not Currently Considering Lowering Rates Further. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said Friday that he’s not considering lowering the central bank’s benchmark interest rates deeper into negative territory at this time. Kuroda, speaking to lawmakers in Tokyo, also said he would use the “three dimensions” of qualitative and quantitative easing and negative rates as necessary to ensure that the BOJ’s 2 percent inflation target is met soon. He reiterated that the BOJ is always monitoring risks, and won’t hesitate to take action as needed. He also said Japan’s banks have ample capital and extremely good profits. The BOJ has faced a backlash against the Jan. 29 decision to charge commercial banks on a share of the cash they park at the central bank. The reaction to the policy has cast a cloud over the BOJ’s next policy meeting, scheduled for March 14-15.
  • China’s Stocks Pare Weekly Gain as Property Developers Retreat. China’s stocks pared a weekly advance before the start of a gathering of the nation’s leaders on Saturday, as real estate and financial companies declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell for the first time in four days, erasing early gains. A gauge of Chinese shares traded in Hong Kong was poised for its biggest weekly advance in nearly two months. Property developers retreated as an official at a government think tank warned about the urgent need to prevent a slump in home prices after a recent rally. Chinese stocks have advanced this week on continued optimism that policy makers will take measures to boost the country’s economic growth at the National People’s Congress. Yin Zhongli, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, wrote in the 21st Century Business Herald that home prices in four of the nation’s biggest cities have run out of control.
  • Asian Stocks, Oil Climb to Eight-Week Highs; Won, Rupiah Advance. Asian stocks and oil both rose to eight-week highs and emerging-market currencies strengthened ahead of key U.S. jobs data and the start of the Chinese national legislature’s annual gathering. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares and crude were both headed for weekly gains of at least 5 percent. The Bloomberg JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index, which tracks the region’s 10 most-used currencies excluding the yen, climbed for a fifth day as Indonesia’s rupiah advanced to a nine-month high. China’s yuan strengthened after the central bank raised its daily fixing. Gold fell 0.6 percent, after entering a bull market on Thursday, and copper advanced. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2 percent as of 11:09 a.m. Tokyo time, headed for the highest close since Jan. 6.
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
  • Personal attacks fly between Trump, Rubio as Kasich defends continuing campaign. (video) Sparks flew between Donald Trump and Marco Rubio at the Fox News Republican debate in Detroit Thursday, with Rubio going after his business record and Trump calling the Florida senator a liar. “He has spent a career convincing Americans he’s something that he’s not in exchange for their money," Rubio said.
MarketWatch:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Breaking911:
Politico: 
  • Trump: I won't release off-record remarks to New York Times. Under pressure from his rivals to release his off-the-record comments to the New York Times, Donald Trump said he wants to reintroduce compromise to the Republican Party. During Thursday's debate, Trump said that in terms of immigration and "almost anything else" in politics, there needs to be give and take. "There always has to be some, you know, tug and pull and deal," Trump said. "There is always negotiation. And the best negotiator that knows what he is doing will make a great deal. But we need give and take in government. If you don't have give and take you are never going to agree on anything." Trump said he wouldn't let the New York Times release the transcript of his comments to the paper, saying he had too much respect for the commitment to keep remarks off the record. Marco Rubio immediately attacked him on that point, saying it was up to him, not the Times, to allow the comments to go public.
Reuters:
  • Forever blowing bubbles, Chinese investors pump Shanghai property. Frenzied property buying in Shanghai has set alarm bells ringing that a new bubble is forming, just months after China's frothy stock markets crashed, raising fears about a replay of the real estate bust that has hit the country's growth since 2012. Home prices in the city, China's biggest financial hub, climbed 3.6 percent in February from the previous month, according to a survey by CRIC, extending the 17.5 percent annual gain it recorded in January, which was seven times faster than the country as a whole. "The (property) market seems crazy again. I have no idea why it's crazy, but it should be the right time to buy," said Wang Zhongcai, a 50-year-old clerk, who was queuing, among many others, to register ownership of a small investment apartment he had bought.
  • Snapchat raises $175 mln from Fidelity in latest funding round -source. Snapchat has raised $175 million in fresh funding from Fidelity Investments and other investors, according to a source familiar with the matter. The investment is an extension of Snapchat's Series F financing round, which the company began raising last year, the person told Reuters.
  • U.S. tech companies unite behind Apple ahead of iPhone encryption ruling. Tech industry leaders including Alphabet Inc's Google, Facebook Inc, Microsoft Corp , AT&T and more than two dozen other Internet and technology companies filed legal briefs on Thursday asking a judge to support Apple Inc in its encryption battle with the U.S. government.
Financial Times:
  • Oil crash takes heavy toll on midstream energy companies. This week the Cushing Marketlink pipeline, a central artery in the North American oil market, dropped its already-discounted rate for shipping light crude by a further 10 per cent to $2.50 a barrel. But this wasn’t the real bargain. As the pipeline lowered the official rate, shippers were subletting space on Marketlink for just $0.50 a barrel, industry executives say.
21st Century Business Herald:
  • Shanghai Asks Banks to Avoid Competition on Mortgage Rates. Shanghai regulator held meeting with banks on Wednesday to learn about their home mortgage lending plans and cooperation with property agents, citing people familiar with the matter. Many first-time home buyers in Beijing and Shanghai can get 15% discount on mortgage rates; some banks offer discounts of 17% or more. Multiple bank officials said they will pay more attention to mortgage applications backed by falsified home purchases, leveraged financing for down payments.  
  • China Researcher Warns Risks in Housing Market. China faces urgent task to prevent home prices from steep decline after surges in tier-1 cities, Yin Zhongli, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, writes. Home prices in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou have run out of control, Yin said. Similarities in movements of home prices and stock prices year ago warrant close attention from authorities, he said. 
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 148.0 -1.25 basis points. 
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 70.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.69 +.1%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.09%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.14%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate 

  • (BIG)/1.98
  • (SPLS)/.28
Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST
  • The Trade Deficit for January is estimated at -$44.0B versus -$43.36B in December.
  • The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for February is estimated to rise to 195K versus 151K in January.
  • The Unemployment Rate for February is estimated at 4.9% versus 4.9% in January. 
  • Average Hourly Earnings for February are estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.5% gain in January.
Upcoming Splits 
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone retail sales report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Short-Covering, Less European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Commodity/Gaming Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.32 -4.51%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.07 +.92%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.47 -.09%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.81 -2.5%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 100.0 -5.66%
  • Total Put/Call .78 -2.5%
  • NYSE Arms .70 +70.66
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 98.43 -1.60%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 2,148.0 +32.44%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 100.44 -1.05%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 30.62 -5.22%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 70.19 -3.83%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 345.99 -2.29%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 124.32 +.16%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 4.25 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 32.25 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -31.0 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.63 +.51%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .26% -5.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 98.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $51.20/Metric Tonne -2.48%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -12.30 -2.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -62.90 +4.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.20 -.1 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.54% +2.0 basis points
  • 19.0% chance of Fed rate hike at April 27 meeting, 35.2% chance at June 15 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -135 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -11 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +23 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Yuan Stability Seen as Key Party Line as China’s Leaders Meet. (video)
  • Credit Outlook for Chinese State-Owned Enterprises Cut. (video)
  • Macau's Economy Shrinks 20% in 2015 Amid Casino Gaming Slump. Macau’s economic output contracted 20.3 percent in 2015 as the world’s largest center of gambling was hurt by falling casino revenue and fewer visitors amid China’s anti-corruption campaign and slowing economy. The Chinese city’s economy shrank 14.4 percent in the fourth quarter due to the continued decline in exports of tourism and gaming services, the local statistics bureau said in an e-mailed statement, easing from a fall of 24.2 percent drop in the three months through September.
  • Europe Stock Investors Fail to Buy Emerging-Market Optimism. Investors in European companies reliant on developing nations for revenue are proving less bullish in the prospects for a rebound in emerging markets than firms including Citigroup Inc. and Fidelity Investment Management. The region’s shares with the highest exposure to developing countries trade near record lows relative to those reliant on Europe and the U.S., according to Morgan Stanley indexes. Despite a rebound since last month’s low, concern lingers that China’s economy will continue to slow, while a slide in emerging-market currencies may curb sales for companies dependent on those nations. The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.4 percent at 9:37 a.m. in London. “On the one hand, you see the recovery starting and brokers becoming more constructive on emerging markets, but it probably needs more before investors jump on this wagon and adjust European portfolios accordingly,” said Christoph Riniker, Zurich-based head of strategy research at Julius Baer Group Ltd. His firm manages the equivalent of $301 billion. “There’s still uncertainty whether this is just a bullish phase within a downtrend or a trend upwards.”
  • Two Hundred Small-Business Leaders Sign Up for `Brexit'. More than 200 small-business leaders signed an open letter calling for British withdrawal from the European Union, highlighting a division with large companies over membership of the bloc. The letter, published in the Daily Telegraph newspaper Thursday, said voters in the June 23 referendum need to hear from “the incubators for tomorrow’s success stories,” not just “a minority of managers from Britain’s largest companies.” “Our businesses thrive because we instinctively understand that flexibility and adaptability are key to our long-term success,” the signatories said. “We employ the majority of the U.K.’s workforce. As entrepreneurs, we deal with the EU’s constant diet of unnecessary regulations which add to our cost base, reduce our bottom line, and raise prices for our customers for no return.
  • The British Economy Is Having a Terrible Week. And you think you're having a bad week? Global gloom is catching up with the U.K. While economic growth came in at 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter, a recent bad run of numbers is threatening that pace. Markit Economics sees 0.3 percent — at best — this quarter, and says its indexes are back at a level that in the past has been consistent with more Bank of England stimulus. Manufacturing, highly dependent on exports, has been struggling against global headwinds. But services, the biggest part of the economy, was apparently faring well — until this morning. Here's Markit's index of activity in services. Now at the lowest in almost three years.
  • Euro area companies cut prices as recovery loses momentum. Deflationary pressures in the euro area intensified in February, raising the pressure on European Central Bank President Mario Draghi to increase stimulus this month. Markit Economics’ composite Purchasing Managers Index fell to 53 from 53.6 in January. While that’s above the initial estimate, it’s still the lowest in 13 months. Markit’s measure of output prices across manufacturing and services fell further below the key 50 level.
  • Iran to Get Luxury Hotel Along Caspian Sea as Tourism Thaws. Iran, where beaches are segregated by gender and alcohol is banned, is getting its first foreign-branded seaside hotel, complete with swimming pools, bars and a spa. Melia Hotels International SA plans to open the five-star property in a 130-meter (427-feet) tower on the Caspian Sea as early as next year, the Spanish hotel operator said in a statement on Wednesday. The announcement comes after a slew of trade sanctions on the Islamic republic were lifted in January. "We firmly believe in Iran’s tourism potential," Chief Executive Officer Gabriel Escarrer said in a statement, which didn’t say whether alcohol will be served at the bars. "We have always been pioneers in the development of new markets."
  • Exxon(XOM) Sees No Oil-Market Rebound Any Time Soon as Glut Persists. Exxon Mobil Corp. scaled back production targets and said drilling budgets will continue to drop through the end of next year as the oil market shows no signs of a recovery. Exxon said output from its 45,000 wells will hover at the equivalent of 4 million to 4.2 million barrels a day through 2020, rather than hitting the old target of 4.3 million as soon as next year, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Rex Tillerson told analysts at the company’s annual strategy session in New York on Wednesday. Capital spending will fall about 25 percent this year to $23.2 billion and will decline again in 2017 because it makes no sense to drill money-losing wells at current prices, he said. “We’re still oversupplying a market that doesn’t need it, doesn’t want it,” Tillerson told analysts at the New York Stock Exchange on Wednesday. “Global economic conditions are not inspiring. I don’t think we can look to the demand side of this market to solve this problem for us.”
  • Gross Says Banks ‘Permanently Damaged’ as Credit Expansion Ends. Financial cos. will be hard-pressed to meet long-term growth expectations as decades of credit expansion come to an end and central-bank policies and tighter regulations squeeze profits, writes Janus’s Bill Gross in monthly outlook. Citigroup, Bank of America, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs trading far below their pre-crisis highs as credit growth that has fueled global economic expansion appears to near its end. Banking “either a screaming sector ready to be bought or a permanently damaged victim of write-offs, tighter regulation and significantly lower future margins”. Selloff in global bank stocks shows investors recognize. 
  • Romney Calls Dishonesty ‘Trump's Hallmark’ in Speech Eviscerating Front-runner. (video) Mitt Romney, the Republican Party's most recent presidential nominee, took the unusual step of criticizing the odds-on favorite to be the party's next nominee in a blistering speech that labeled Donald Trump a fraud who is playing the American public for suckers. “Dishonesty is Trump's hallmark,” Romney said Thursday. “Let me put it plainly, if we Republicans choose Donald Trump as our nominee, the prospects for a safe and prosperous future are greatly diminished,” Romney said at the start of his remarks in Salt Lake City. He is the chairman of Lexington, Massachusetts-based Solamere Capital. Romney said he was not announcing his own candidacy and would not make an endorsement of any single candidate. He cited all three of Trump's remaining rivals -- Florida Senator Marco Rubio, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, and Ohio Governor John Kasich. “One of these men should be our nominee,” Romney said. “After all, this is an individual who mocked a disabled reporter, who attributed a reporter's questions to her menstrual cycle, who mocked a brilliant rival who happened to be a woman due to her appearance, who bragged about his marital affairs, and who laces his public speeches with vulgarity,” Romney said. “There is dark irony in his boasts of his sexual exploits during the Vietnam War while John McCain, whom he has mocked, was imprisoned and tortured.” “One of the most disgusting things to me is his refusal to denounce the KKK,” said Nick Clayson, 21, a political science student at Utah State University and registered Republican. “That's a huge issue for me. If it came down to Clinton or Trump I would want a third party candidate to enter the race.” “Trump tells it like it is, he's not politically correct -- he says what people want to hear and doesn't hold anything back,” said John Greene, 47, who owns a real estate business in Salt Lake City. “With his lack of foreign policy experience he could run this country into the ground.” Others in the queue flew in from out of town the night before and were undecided about who they would support in their state's upcoming primary election. “I came to see if he can change the tide of the winds,” said Rachel Walston, a financial adviser from North Carolina and registered Republican who turns 37 today. “For the first time in my life I might vote for a Democrat if it comes down to Trump.”
Fox News:
CNBC:
  • I see bubbles bursting everywhere: Top academic. (video) Deflationary tides are lapping the shores of countries across the world and financial bubbles are set to burst everywhere, Vikram Mansharamani, a lecturer at Yale University, told CNBC on Thursday. "I think it all started with the China investment bubble that has burst and that brought with it commodities and that pushed deflation around the world and those ripples are landing on the shore of countries literally everywhere," the high-profile author and academic said at the Global Financial Markets Forum in Abu Dhabi. On Thusday, Mansharamani said that financial bubbles had been fueled by "cheap money" created by highly accommodative monetary policy across developed economies. "I mean, we've got a bubble bursting, I would argue, in Australian housing markets — that is beginning to crack; South Africa — the whole economy; Canada — housing and the economy; Brazil. We can keep going on and on," the academic told CNBC. 
  • Home flipping reached 10-year high: Can you say froth? (video)
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
PBS: 
Vox: 
  • Trump University, explained. Before Donald Trump was knocking on the door of the Republican nomination for president, he charged thousands of dollars for an education at "Trump University," promising to share the secrets of his real estate investing success. The only problem: Trump University wasn't anything close to a university. It was a multilevel marketing scheme.
Telegraph:
  • Bank boss warns property lenders are getting reckless. Some banks are recklessly offering large loans without paying sufficient attention to the borrower’s ability to make repayments if interest rates go up and house prices wobble, according to the boss of Shawbrook Bank. The challenger bank offers mortgages but says it takes precautions to ensure both it and its customers can cope if the economy takes a turn for the worse.
  • Moody’s downgrades BHP Billiton on gloomy commodities outlook. The agency lowered BHP’s rating to A3 from A1, and kept its outlook as negative. Matthew Moore of Moody’s said the current slump in commodities was a “fundamental shift” that went beyond “a normal cyclical downturn”. “Moody's expects BHP Billiton's credit metrics to remain substantially weaker over the next 12-24 months than historical levels,” he said.
Vedomosti:
  • Russia Sees Oil Averaging $35/barrel in 2016. Russia's Economy Ministry base case sees oil averaging $35/barrel in 2016, $40/barrel and $45/barrel for next two years, citing obtained updated estimates, which is not final forecast. Ministry forecasts $35b capital outflow in 2016.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth unch.
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Networking -2.7% 2) Biotech -1.5% 3) Drugs -1.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • TSLX, BANC, HABT, CIEN, PRAH, KR, KONA, HLF, AERI, AWK, BURL, PSTG, ERJ, NGG, USCR, DATA, WK, DTSI, PAM, OME, NDLS, COST, NPTN, HRTG, SINA, BURL, INFN, NPTN and HABT
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) THC 2) KR 3) DDD 4) KBE 5) XME
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) BKE 2) NDLS 3) AERI 4) ESPR 5) NHTC
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer: 
  • Small-Cap Value +.6%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Hospitals +4.0% 2) Steel +3.6% 3) Gold & Silver +3.4% 
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume: 
  • TUMI, TSE, SSYS, X, SMTC, CNQ, DRII, WB, JOY, NSAM, SA, LXU, SPN and GTT
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 
  • 1) KMX 2) CIT 3) CHTR 4) POM 5) DLTR
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 
  • 1) INTC 2) TUMI 3) HPQ 4) ANF 5) SIG
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index: