Monday, March 07, 2016

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
 

  • China Export Slump Shows Growth Push Depends on Domestic Demand. China’s export slump deepened in February, highlighting the challenge for policy makers seeking to keep growth humming at home without a boost from external trade. Overseas shipments tumbled 25.4 percent in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier, the customs administration said on Tuesday, compared with a 11.2 percent drop in January. Imports extended a streak of declines to 16 months, slumping 13.8 percent, leaving a trade surplus of $32.6 billion. A slowdown in global trade is making it harder for China’s leaders, who are gathered in Beijing this week to set the nation’s economic plans, to keep growth at the targeted 6.5 percent to 7 percent range. Reflecting the uncertainties, the government didn’t set a specific target for trade at the annual congress meeting after it failed to meet the goal last year.
  • The $5 Trillion Quandary as Negative-Yielding Japanese Debt Doubles. The amount of Japanese government bonds in the market offering negative yields has doubled this year to more than 600 trillion yen ($5.3 trillion) and that’s a major headache for the finance industry. After the Bank of Japan’s surprise decision on Jan. 29 to implement negative interest rates on some deposits, almost three-quarters of total JGBs would offer no returns or even burn a hole in balance sheets if bought now. The government got paid to borrow 2.2 trillion yen for a decade for the first time at an auction last week, and set a record-low 0.8 percent coupon for an auction of about 800 billion yen of 30-year securities Tuesday.
  • No Consolation for Abe in GDP Revision That Confirms Contraction. Japan’s economy contracted in the final quarter of 2015, according to revised government data that underscores growing concern that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s reflation program is falling short of expectations. The gross domestic product shrank an annualized 1.1 percent in the three months ended Dec. 31, better than the 1.4 percent contraction reported last month, according to revised data from the Cabinet Office released Tuesday. The median forecast of 29 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a 1.5 percent contraction
  • Daewoo Shipbuilding Falls on Quarterly Loss, Order Concerns. Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co. dropped the most in six weeks in Seoul trading after posting a bigger-than-expected fourth-quarter loss amid concern that shipbuilding demand has dried up. Shares of the world’s second-largest shipbuilder fell as much as 12 percent, the biggest intraday decline since Jan. 25, and traded at 5,460 won as of 10:00 a.m. in Seoul. The stock has dropped 74 percent in the past 12 months and is the third-worst performer on the Kospi index.
  • Sui Generis Is Putting Shorts on Canadian Energy Stocks. (video)
  • Yen Climbs to One-Week High as Equities Slump Fuels Haven Demand. The yen climbed to the strongest level in a week against the dollar as a slump in equities fueled demand for haven assets. Japan’s currency gained against all of its 31 major peers as the Nikkei 225 Stock Average tumbled 1.6 percent. The nation’s economy shrank an annualized 1.1 percent in the three months through December, less than economists projected and an improvement from the 1.4 percent contraction reported last month. A gauge of the dollar held a six-day decline before data that will likely show China’s exports declined. “The yen will be prone to fluctuations to risk sentiment,” said Shinichiro Kadota, a foreign-exchange strategist at Barclays Plc in Tokyo. “We’ll keep our eye on how the Nikkei and global risk assets will trade.” The yen advanced 0.5 percent to 112.87 per dollar at 11:39 a.m. in Tokyo, after reaching 112.75, its strongest level since March 1. Against the euro, the Japanese currency appreciated 0.4 percent to 124.41, adding to Monday’s 0.2 percent gain.  
  • China Stocks Tumble as Plunging Exports Signal Deeper Slowdown. China’s stocks fell for the first time in six days after the nation’s trade worsened and as investors speculated government-backed funds were paring support for equities. The Shanghai Composite Index halted its longest winning streak since October, falling 2.5 percent as gauges of financial, industrial and technology companies slid. Exports slumped 25.4 percent in February in dollar terms from a year earlier, while imports declined for a 16th straight month. "Market sentiment has not totally been rebuilt, so when the A share market goes up there will be some selling pressure," said Linus Yip, a Hong Kong-based strategist at First Shanghai Securities Ltd. There is speculation "the government is getting out from the market," he said. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index slid 2.1 percent at 10:45 a.m., while the Hang Seng Index declined 1 percent.
  • Asian Stocks Drop as Japan Slips, China Falls Before Trade Data. Asian stocks dropped, with the regional benchmark index heading for its biggest decline in three weeks. Japanese shares fell for a second day as a stronger yen cut the earnings outlook for exporters while China stocks slumped before data that will likely show a decline in exports. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1 percent to 124.98 as of 10:50 a.m. in Tokyo, swinging for an early gain of 0.2 percent. Japan’s Topix index declined 1.8 percent, heading for its biggest drop since Feb. 12, as the yen strengthened against the dollar and revised data showed the nation’s economy shrank an annualized 1.1 percent in the fourth quarter, the second contraction in three quarters. “We might be experiencing a bit of exuberance,” Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets Asia Pacific Ltd. in Sydney said by phone. “While we’ve seen a significant improvement in sentiment, we’ve also seen very significant movement in prices. Japanese markets have gone up significantly, making it vulnerable for a correction. The GDP has acted as a trigger for the selloff in Tokyo. ” 
  • Commodities Rebound Hinges on China's Real Estate Market: Chart. While housing inventories in bigger cities have fallen, it will “take years to clear” backlogs in smaller towns that account for 60 percent of China’s property investments, he said.
  • Wells Fargo(WFC) Said to Expand in Credit Swaps as Clients Hedge. Wells Fargo & Co. plans to ramp up trading in derivatives that allow investors to bet against companies’ debt, the latest sign of growing interest in a market that many had abandoned. The bank expects to trade credit-default swaps tied to individual companies as soon as next quarter, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Investors have grown more interested in betting and hedging with the instruments since the middle of last year, when corporate bonds started weakening
Wall Street Journal:
  • After Ferguson, Cities Face a Body-Cam Dilemma. In arming police with video devices, some cities face friction for acting fast.
  • Rising Global Debt and the Deflation Threat. Years of deficit spending and near-zero interest rates have led to massive borrowing but little growth.
  • Trump, Voters and the GOP Convention. Party rules say you need a majority of delegates, not a plurality. Donald Trump may pile up more than enough delegates in the primaries to make his GOP presidential nomination this summer a formality. But what if he doesn’t? Mr. Trump, Ted Cruz and their media mouthpieces are claiming it would be political theft to choose the nominee at a contested convention. These timid souls need an education in party rules, political history and muscular democracy.
Fox News:
CNBC:
  • China Feb vehicle sales down 3.7 pct y/y - China Passenger Car Association. China's vehicle sales in February fell 3.7 percent from a year earlier, data from China Passenger Car Association showed on Tuesday. Auto sales totaled 1.37 million, the association said in a statement on its website. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), whose statistics are generally viewed as the benchmark for the industry, is expected to report wholesale data for February later this month.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
  • ECB monitoring liquidity levels at some Italian banks-sources. The European Central Bank is checking liquidity levels at a number of Italian banks, including Banca Carige and Monte dei Paschi di Siena , on a daily basis, two sources close to the matter said on Monday. Italian banking shares have fallen sharply since the start of the year amid market concerns about some 360 billion euros of bad loans on their books and weak capital levels. The ECB has been putting pressure on several Italian banks to improve their capital position. The regulator can decide to monitor liquidity levels at any bank it supervises on a weekly or daily basis if it has any concern about deposits or funding.
  • Urban Outfitters'(URBN) Free People brand same-store sales beat estimates. Apparel retailer Urban Outfitters Inc reported better-than-expected sales at established stores for its bohemian-inspired Free People brand. Shares of the company rose 5.7 percent to $29.76 in extended trading on Monday.
Nikkei:
  • Japan Money-Market Funds Shutting on Negative Rates. All 11 Japanese asset managers running money-market funds plan to shut them and cash out investors as the industry grapples with negative interest rates.
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 150.25 +1.5 basis points. 
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 68.75 +.5 basis point
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.19 -.15%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.49%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.62%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate 

  • (DKS)/1.15
  • (NAV)/-.68
  • (ABM)/.26
  • (AVAV)/.04
Economic Releases 
6:00 am EST
  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for February is estimated to rise to 94.0 versus 93.9 in January.
Upcoming Splits 
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone GDP report, $24B 3Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, Piper Jaffray Tech/Media/Telecom conference, RBC Financial Institutions conference, JP Morgan Aviation/Transports/Industrials conference, (JOY) annual meeting, (SWFT) mid-quarter call, (CVX) analyst meeting and the (FEYE) analyst day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by real estate and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Oil Bounce, Less European/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Commodity/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Aeound Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.73 +5.16%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.43 -.35%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.63 -.51%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 58.52 +.58%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 70.0 -18.0%
  • Total Put/Call .81 -2.41%
  • NYSE Arms .77 +10.08
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 94.38 -.07%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,553.0.0 -22.54%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 98.17 -1.09%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 30.62 -3.65%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 68.65 +.75%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 339.28 -.39%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 124.60 +.16%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 4.25 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 36.5 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -28.75 +2.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.25 +.11%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .27% unch.
  • Yield Curve 100.0 -2.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $63.74/Metric Tonne +18.59%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -11.80 +1.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -61.80 +.7 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -11.0 +2.2 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.50% -3.0 basis points
  • 22.7% chance of Fed rate hike at April 27 meeting, 45.9% chance at June 15 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -141 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +22 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -20 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/medical/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some of them
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • China Said to Plan Crackdown on Loans for Home Down-Payments. Chinese regulators plan to impose new rules to end the practice of homebuyers taking out loans to cover down-payments, as they step up scrutiny of financing risk in the property market, according to people familiar with the matter. The rules will bar lenders including developers, housing agencies, small-loan companies and peer-to-peer networks from offering loans for down-payments, said the people, who asked not to be named because the matter isn’t yet public. Regulators including the central bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission will also ask commercial banks to scrutinize mortgage applications and reject those where down-payments come from loans offered by such institutions, the people said. China is planning the crackdown amid concerns about rising risks in the loan markets and warnings from officials that home prices in some top-tier cities are increasing too fast. Shanghai’s most-senior official said the city’s property market has “overheated” and should be more tightly controlled after a recent surge in residential housing prices. “If implemented strictly, this move could slow home sales as it will have a psychological impact on investors," said Liu Yuan, Shanghai-based research director at Centaline Group, China’s largest property agency.
  • Why China Remains a Big Economic Worry. (video)
  • German Factory Orders Drop as Global Slowdown Weighs on Economy. German factory orders fell for a second month in January in a sign that a global slowdown and weak domestic pricing power may be hurting Europe’s largest economy. Orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, dropped 0.1 percent from the prior month, when they slid 0.2 percent, data from the Economy Ministry in Berlin showed on Monday. The reading, which is typically volatile, compares with a median estimate for a decrease of 0.3 percent in a Bloomberg survey. Orders climbed 1.1 percent from a year earlier. While Germany is benefiting from record-low unemployment that’s boosting domestic demand, corporate confidence has been hit by market volatility and concerns that the euro area’s recovery might fade. Exporters are struggling with a China-led slowdown in emerging markets.
  • European Stocks Fall From Five-Week High, Led by Italian Banks. Traders questioning the longest run of weekly rallies since October sent European stocks lower, while a rise in oil prices helped equities pare losses in the final hour of trading. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slid 0.3 percent, trimming a decline of as much as 1 percent. Italian lenders were once again leading declines, with Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA and Banco Popolare SC falling more than 4 percent. Concern over their bad loans sent them to their lowest prices since at least 2012 last month. The nation’s FTSE MIB Index dropped 1.2 percent for the biggest drop among western-European markets.
  • China Delays Emergency Oil Storage Completion to Beyond 2020. China has pushed back completion of its emergency petroleum stockpiles to beyond the original 2020 deadline. The world’s largest energy consumer will finish construction of the second phase of its strategic oil reserves and begin preliminary work on additional sites by 2020, according to the 2016-2020 Five Year Plan released over the weekend. The country’s previous plans called for three phases to be completed by the end of the decade. “China may have reached its current storage capacity limit and it takes time to build up new” reserve sites, said Lu Wang, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence in Hong Kong. “Some SPR will be stored underground, which might take more time to build and cause the delay."
  • Clinton Doubles Down Against Fracking in Debate, Raising Alarms. Hillary Clinton’s promise during a debate Sunday to aggressively regulate fracking deepens the divide between Republican and Democratic presidential candidates on oil and gas development and signifies her continued shift to the left on environmental issues. In the Democratic presidential debate in Flint, Michigan against Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, Clinton said she wouldn’t support fracking in states or local communities that don’t want it, if it causes pollution, or if the chemicals used aren’t disclosed. "By the time we get through all of my conditions, I do not think there will be many places in America where fracking will continue to take place," Clinton said.
  • Junk Bond Indexes Are Getting Junkier. (graph) Downgrades are changing debt benchmarks. As ultra-low oil prices have forced a quick reevaluation of the energy sector's fortunes, credit rating companies have been downgrading energy companies, including Chesapeake Energy Corp. and Whiting Petroleum Corp. The downgrades have fed into the high-yield bond indexes often used by investors to benchmark their returns.  
  • Micron(MU) Falls After Nomura Downgrades Stock on Oversupply of DRAM. Micron Technology Inc. shares tumbled Monday after Nomura downgraded the stock on concerns the U.S.’s largest maker of memory chips will continue to underperform until the industry for dynamic random access memory cuts production. The shares fell as much as 7 percent after Nomura analyst Romit Shah downgraded the stock to reduce from neutral and cut his price target to $8 from $12. Recent checks in Taiwan and Korea indicate that the supply of DRAM is growing and "there seems to be no intention to cut production," Shah said in a note Monday.
  • U.S. Commercial Property Prices Drop for First Time in Six Years. U.S. commercial real estate prices dropped in January for the first time since 2010, a sign of weakening demand by investors after a six-year rally that pushed values to records. The Moody/RCA Commercial Property Price Index slipped 0.3 percent from December, Moody’s Investors Service said in a statement Monday. The decline was led by office and industrial buildings, which each had a price drop of more than 1 percent. “This is a significant milestone that signals that a shift in sentiment among commercial-property investors is under way,” Moody’s said in the statement.
  • Off-Campus College Dorms Now Resemble Spring-Break Hotels. Investors have poured billions into off-campus housing, building luxury complexes that resemble resorts. Two resort-style pools, with deckside cabanas. A beach volleyball court, professional-grade barbecues, and around-the-clock staff. Sounds like a good place for a college student to spend spring break—if she didn't already live there. Purpose-built student housing such as the Stadium Centre apartments—the 710-bed complex described above, a short walk to Florida State University's Tallahassee campus—has become increasingly upscale over the past decade, driven by rising enrollments and an infusion of new capital.
Wall Street Journal:
  • China to Shift Debt Burden in Tax Overhaul. The central government will take on more borrowing to take pressure off indebted local authorities. China’s central government will take over some of local authorities’ debts in a move to help them regain footing and to allow Beijing to cut business taxes.
  • Justice Department, SEC Investigating Visium. Hedge fund run by Jacob Gottlieb tells investors it is being probed over trading and valuation issues. Visium Asset Management LP, a hedge-fund firm that manages more than $8 billion, is being investigated by the Justice Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission over trading and valuation issues, the company’s managing partner, Jacob Gottlieb, told employees Monday morning, according to people close to the matter.
MarketWatch.com:
Fox News:
  • Cruz sees success in GOP-only contests. (video) A pattern is starting to emerge that holds both promise and peril for Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump: Trump does better in “open” primary contests where members of either party can vote, while Texas Sen. Ted Cruz tends to do better in "closed" contests limited only to registered Republicans. The pattern could lend credence to Cruz’s claim that he’s the “consistent conservative” in the race, and continue to pose challenges for Trump as more closed contests – including the critical Florida primary – loom on the election calendar.
  • North Korea again threatens to strike US, South Korea with nukes. (video) North Korea on Monday issued its latest belligerent threat, warning of an indiscriminate "pre-emptive nuclear strike of justice" on Washington and Seoul, this time in reaction to the start of huge U.S.-South Korean military drills. Such threats have been a staple of young North Korean leader Kim Jong Un since he took power after his dictator father's death in December 2011. But they spike especially when Washington and Seoul stage what they call annual defensive springtime war games. Pyongyang says the drills, which were set to start Monday and run through the end of April, are invasion rehearsals.
CNBC:
  • Fischer sees inflation hints; Brainard urges calm. Two key Federal Reserve officials said Monday they expect inflation to get closer to the central bank's target. In separate prepared remarks in Washington, neither Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer nor governor Lael Brainard made direct reference to next week's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. But Brainard argued for patience in rate increases amid possible risks that inflation and U.S. economic activity will fall
  • Trump 'fundamentally unstable': Ex-Bush 43 aide. (video) "Anybody who says they think they know what he's going to be [like as president], they don't know what they are talking about because he will change what he's going to be," Fratto told CNBC's "Squawk Box."
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth -.5%.
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Internet -1.4% 2) Paper -1.3% 3) Gaming -.8%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • SCOR, DRII, CREE, HRTG, FNHC, TM, SSYS, HIFR, UIHC, SWHC, KEP, SHAK, PRLB, MD, NFX, BIO, AMBA, WDFC, DNKN, SRG, PSB, TECD, JOBS, OA and UHAL
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) ZTS 2) MUR 3) JOY 4) CREE 5) CAT
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) MU 2) SSYS 3) ADM 4) NKE 5) GS
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer: 
  • Small-Cap Value +.9%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Steel +3.2% 2) Oil Service +2.4% 3) Gold & Silver +2.1% 
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume: 
  • FTRPR, RIO, MUR, SM, UNT, FI, NOV, RRC, BHP, TDW, RICE, BIG and GB
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 
  • 1) TEP 2) STX 3) ACAD 4) LINE 5) CRC
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 
  • 1) AMCX 2) CMG 3) SPTN 4) TRMB 5) SFLY
Charts: