Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Diminished Fed Rate-Cut Expectations, China Trade Deal Concerns, Profit-Taking, Biotech/Financial Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.2 +7.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.61 +.09%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.68 +.8%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 34.9 +6.1%

• ISE Sentiment Index 57.0 -53.3%
  

• Total Put/Call .99 +11.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.08 +48.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.49 +3.16%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 611.0 +.5%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.42 +2.14%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 215.25 +4.5 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.28 +2.61%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 166.98 +1.51%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 164.65 +.06%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 3.25 unch.

• TED Spread 11.75 -1.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.75 +.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.38 +.04%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.23% +1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 15.5 -1.75 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 115.50 USD/Metric Tonne +2.79%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -55.80 +2.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -13.0 -3.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -34.70 +.9 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.70 +1.0 basis point
• 100.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Sept. 18th meeting, 100.0% chance of cut at October 30th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +51 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -39 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -31 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech/medical/industrial sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.9%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Biotech -1.8% 2) Computer Hardware -1.4% 3) I-Banks -1.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ITCI, NOAH, CHRS, CRUS, TAL, SWAV, JNPR and NTAP

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AET 2) TSN 3) PEP 4) ITCI 5) SYMC

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) JNPR 2) STT 3) FFIV 4) NTAP 5) MSCI

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Lrage-Cap Value -.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +.9% 2) Oil Service +.3% 3) Homebuilders +.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SGMO, AZZ, ADVM, RYTM, INSP, CHGG, SOLY, OSTK, SYMC, KERN, ATNX, GOL, WW, BLFS, PSMT, MTLS, EPAM, CIR, MDC, AAP, ZYME, GLPG, DOVA, GEOS and BPT

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CRZO 2) JNPR 3) MDLZ 4) NTAP 5) COST

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SLGL 2) CRWD 3) SGMO 4) EPC 5) SHOP

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -24.1% Below 100-Day Average
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 34.8% of Issues Advancing, 61.5% Declining
• 84 New 52-Week Highs, 13 New Lows
• 62.0% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 53.5%
• Vix 14.3 +7.9%
• Total Put/Call 1.26 +41.6%
• TRIN/Arms 1.24 +71.2%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Europe Weighs Next Move on Iran After Uranium Enrichment Breach.

• Here Are the Key Highlights of Deutsche Bank’s Big Restructuring.

• How Hong Kong Protesters Switched Tactics to Keep Pressure on China.

• Asian Stocks Set to Slip; Turkish Lira Tumbles. Stocks in Asia looked set for a muted start to the week after their U.S. counterparts retreated and Treasury yields rose Friday on the strong jobs report. Turkey’s lira fell after its central bank governor was replaced. Futures pointed to modest declines in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia after the S&P 500 slipped on low volumes. The 10-year Treasury yield rose past 2% on Friday and the dollar climbed as traders reassessed the path of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Turkish assets are in focus after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s shock decision to replace the country’s central bank governor fueled concern the regulator will lower borrowing costs more than expected. The S&P 500 Index fell 0.2% on Friday. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 were little changed in Singapore. Hang Seng futures dipped 0.3%. Futures on Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index slipped 0.2%. 

• Border Facilities’ Woes Exaggerated, Trump’s Homeland Security Secretary Says.

Wall Street Journal:

• Iran Plans New Breach of Limits of Nuclear Agreement.

• WeWork to Raise Billions Selling Debt Ahead of IPO.

• The U.S. Is Overflowing With Natural Gas. Not Everyone Can Get It.

• Copper an Outlier as Most Markets Rebound on Trade.

• For Europe, There’s an Upside to Germany’s Slowdown.

• What Socialism Meant for My Great-Grandfather. 

• Traffic Jam: SUVs Pack Dealer Lots, With More on the Way.

• Conservatives Regain Control in Greece.

MarketWatch.com:

• Earnings season is coming, and expectations couldn’t be much lower.

• #DumpStarbucks goes viral after Starbucks barista tells police to leave store because a customer ‘did not feel safe’.

Fox News:

• Congressman says ‘severe, serious abuses’ by FBI, CIA that led to Mueller probe will be revealed.

• US defeats the Netherlands to win back-to-back World Cup titles. 

• Trump, putting aside Rapinoe's attack, congratulates team on World Cup win, reacts to pay disparity.

CNBC:

• Hong Kong protesters march again, this time taking their message to mainland Chinese tourists.

• Powell’s testimony could make or break the stock rally.

Zero Hedge:

• Pick-&-Go: Scanning No Longer Required, Supermarkets Swap Cashiers For Cameras.

• Morgan Stanley: "We Are Putting Our Money Where Our Mouth Is And Downgrading Global Stocks To Sell".

• American Pride: Another Divide.

• 'Severe, Serious Abuses' By FBI, CIA Are 'Going To Come Out': Rep. Peter King.

• Lira Crashes After Erdogan Unexpectedly Fires Turkey's Central Bank Governor.

• Iran To Announce Enrichment To 5% Sunday, Aiming At Higher-Grade Uranium.

• Jeffrey Epstein Has Been Arrested For Sex Trafficking of Minors.

• Farage Demands UK's US Ambassador Be Fired After "Inept, Incompetent" Trump Slur.

• Biden Goes From "Apologize For What?" To "I'm Sorry" Over Segregationist Fiasco.

• Debunking The Myth Of The Tight U.S. Labor Market.

• "The Deutsche Bank As You Know It Is No More": DB Exits Equities In $8.4 Billion Overhaul, To Fire Thousands.

• In "Radical Overhaul" 20,000 Deutsche Bankers Will Be Fired As "Bad Bank" Soars To €80BN, 5x DB's Market Cap.

• The Aftermath Of California's Massive Back-To-Back Quakes: "This Wasn't Even 'The Big One'".

• The British Roots Of The Deep State: How The Round Table Infiltrated America.

• State Of Emergency Declared After 7.1 Quake Rocks Southern California; Massive Aftershocks Shake Towns.

• Bay Area Home Prices Plunge In May, Largest In 7 Years.

Business Insider:

• A parasitic infection called 'crypto' is on the rise in US swimming pools. Here are 9 other ways that pools, hot tubs, and lakes can make you sick.

• US paratroopers are headed to Afghanistan with these awesome drones that fit in their pockets. 

• 'I don't know how long I can stay in business': Truckers' fears have soared to recession-level highs.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are +.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.50 +1.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 40.75 unch.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.38 +.05%.

• FTSE 100 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.04%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.02%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (AZZ)/.67

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for May is estimated to fall to $16.5B versus $17.497B in April.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The EU Industrial Production report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to strengthen into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.