Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Tobacco -1.8% 2) Papers -1.3% 3) Retail -1.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• CADE, PAYS, MBUU, HZO, IIPR, MCFT, TURN, LII, BPT, BC, HDB, FRGI, AMC and GEO

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) GEO 2) AET 3) HOG 4) SIG 5) MAT

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CADE 2) HZO 3) BC 4) MBUU 5) MNK

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +2.2% 2) Semis +1.9% 3) Computer Hardware +1.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RPM, ARCT, GLPG, DVA, SBLK, MODN, DDS, JYNT, SLP, DIOD, PHG, USLV, AVRO, GNTX, HAL, COHU, SKX, MTN, LASR, SNY, SAP, AMAT, CQP, TDOC, UCTT and NEWM

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PHM 2) KKR 3) DVA 4) KMB 5)WHR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) VYST 2) HAL 3) AMAT 4) DVA 5) LK

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -12.5% Below 100-Day Average
• 6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
• 53.3% of Issues Advancing, 41.8% Declining
• 56 New 52-Week Highs, 42 New Lows
• 60.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.7%
• Vix 14.2 -1.7%
• Total Put/Call .88 -12.0%
• TRIN/Arms .99 -21.4%

Monday Watch

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.0 +.5 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 43.0 +.25 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.76 -.08%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.01%.
• S&P 500 futures -.05%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.08%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (HAL)/.30
• (PETS)/.42
• (CALM)/-.26

After the Close:

• (BRO)/.28
• (CE)/2.35
• (CR)/1.56
• (LOGI)/.25
• (STLD)/.88
• (AMTD)/.97
• (WHR)/3.70
• (ZION)/1.10

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for June is estimated to rise to .1 versus -.05 in May.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Japan Convenience Store Sales report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters. 
• Global Economy Week by Bloomberg.
• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on profit-taking, less dovish FOMC commentary, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, earnings jitters, Iran tensions and technical selling. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 2,976.61 -1.23%

 
























The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

 
Indices

• DJIA 27,154.20 -.65%

• NASDAQ 8,146.49 -1.18%

• Russell 2000 1,547.90 -1.41%

• S&P 500 High Beta 43.14 -1.35%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 149.08 -3.32%

• Wilshire 5000 30,565.17 -1.21%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,617.99 -1.22%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,260.71 -1.16%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 617.25 +.22%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,109.61 -.55%
  

• NYSE Technology 1,979.98 -.90%

• Transports 10,604.20 -.31%

• Utilities 820.08 -.51%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 72.82 -2.2%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 43.02 +.05%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,233.25 +.09%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 960.67 -.12%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 364,822 -.27%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 25 -566

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 55.1 -35.2%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 390,149 -.68%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,999,766 -1.55%

• Total Put/Call 1.00 +12.4%

• OEX Put/Call 2.59 -25.14%

• ISE Sentiment 97.0 +32.9%

• NYSE Arms 1.26 +29.9%

• Volatility(VIX) 14.5 +16.6%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 37.48 +16.15%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.29 +6.32%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.03 -.57%

• Smart Money Flow Index 15,267.79 -1.51%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $3.262 Trillion +.29%

• ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$2.382 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 35.9 +6.9%

• AAII % Bears 28.6 +4.2%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 178.59 -3.13%

• Crude Oil 55.83 -5.43%

• Reformulated Gasoline 184.49 -3.52%

• Natural Gas 2.29 -4.92%

• Heating Oil 189.74 -2.30%

• Gold 1,426.10 +.76%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 179.29 +2.30%

• Copper 274.45 +1.07%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 300.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.33%

• China Iron Ore Spot 114.26 USD/Metric Tonne -1.80%

• Lumber 353.70 +1.75%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 888.70 -2.63%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.61% +22.0 basis points

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -.7% +120.0 basis points
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 30.0% unch.

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.0322 +1.23%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 57.1 -53.2%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 175.48 +.26%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -41.60 +4.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -8.80 -1.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -29.0 +9.9 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0% chance of no change, 100.0% chance of rate cut on 7/31

• US Dollar Index 97.15 +.44%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,654.80 +.22%

• Bitcoin/USD 10,529.52 -11.57%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.53 -.61%

• Yield Curve 23.5 -4.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.06% -6.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.769 Trillion -.18%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 15.0 +.98%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 186.98 +8.53%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 192.75 -2.0 basis points

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 41.94 -.24%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 128.85 -.33%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 63.53 -2.06%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 31.80 unch.

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 105.06 -2.79%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 164.79 -.12%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.79% +1.0 basis points

• TED Spread 19.5 +.25 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 2.5 -2.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.25 -5.75 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 53.81 +.79%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 513.0 -15.1%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 60.90 +3.01%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 159.89 -1.33%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 180.0 unch.
  

• M1 Money Supply $3.818 Trillion +.73%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,140.40 -.3%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 218,750 -3,500

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.81% +6.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 500.20 -1.11%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 64.7 +.9 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +4.70% -50.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.78/gallon +.02/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 2,130.0 +14.2%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 813.99 -.13%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 17.50 -12.5%

• Rail Freight Carloads 267,146 +17.32%

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth -.8%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -1.8%

Leading Sectors

• Gold & Silver +6.8%

• Steel +2.2%

• Tobacco +2.1%

• Education +1.4%

• Semis +1.3%

Lagging Sectors

• Healthcare Providers -2.2% 

• REITs -2.2%

• Internet -2.4%

• Telecom -2.5%

• Oil Service -6.1%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (20)

• DDS, CRWD, RRGB, SKX, AMC, GNTX, SPR, MYGN, STT, CFG, KSU, JBHT, BA, CLF, GTLS, NUE, HQY, WAL, KNX and FCX

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (12)

• NFLX, CUBE, GATX, UVE, MPW, ADTN, BGS, SXT, CLVS, OMER, VCRA and GLYC

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change