Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gaming -1.3% 2) Alt Energy -.9% 3) Biotech -.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• NSTG, PLUG, BE, DKNG, NTLA, DPZ, SCPL, ICPT, AMSC, SAH, ANGI, AYI and CYTK
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) LQD 2) CYTK 3) GPRO 4) XME 5) SPWR
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NKLA 2) BTU 3) TMDX 4) KODK 5) WKHS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +1.0%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +3.4% 2) Homebuilding +2.3% 3) Disk Drives +2.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CDNA, EV, ON, SBE, DTE, AB, IBM, WDR, DNB, FHI, FRTA, CTVA, ROKU, PPG, ALK, OCUL, LQDT, ANET, VMC, CVM, RYTM, EQH, BEN, IVZ and PPG
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CYTK 2) IBM 3) COTY 4) DPZ 5) LLY

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CDNA 2) IBM 3) ROKU 4) OPK 5)MDT

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -18.3% Below 100-Day Average
• 11 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
• 76.0% of Issues Advancing, 21.4% Declining
• 135 New 52-Week Highs, 5 New Lows
• 52.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.4% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 223.0 +20.0 points
• Vix 27.5 -2.0%
• Total Put/Call .77 +2.7%
• TRIN/Arms .61 +7.0%

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:   

• Here’s What Could Happen If China Invaded Taiwan.
• Stocks Advance Amid Stimulus Optimism; Dollar Dips: Markets Wrap. Asian stocks followed their U.S. peers higher as investors mulled encouraging signs for Joe Biden in the presidential election race and what it could mean for stimulus. Treasuries steadied after yields pushed higher, while the dollar slipped. Shares climbed in Australia and South Korea, though were little changed in Japan. U.S. equity futures edged up following the S&P 500’s 1.7% overnight advance. Nancy Pelosi signaled openness to an airline-relief bill in talks with Steven Mnuchin after President Donald Trump scuttled broader negotiations, while a fresh round of state polls showed Biden is widening his lead in a slew of crucial battleground states. The 10-year Treasury yield held around 0.78%. S&P 500 futures gained 0.2% as of 9:02 a.m. in Tokyo. The gauge rose 1.7% on Wednesday. Japan’s Topix index advanced 0.1%. South Korea’s Kospi added 0.8%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 0.7%.
• Pelosi Open to Aid for Airlines But Resists Stimulus-Checks Bill.
  
• Fed to Debate Bond-Buying Program in Possible Step Toward Action.  
• Delta Targets Louisiana After Hitting Mexico: Hurricane Update.  
• California Keeps Theme Parks Closed, Extending Rift With Disney.

Wall Street Journal:

• Trump Symptom-Free for 24 Hours, Says White House Doctor.
• Bigoted Attacks on Amy Coney Barrett Will Backfire.
• Joe Biden Is the Shutdown Candidate.

Fox News:

• Harris will target POTUS as Pence defends the administration's record at tonight's debate.
• BLM, social justice messages to be left 'off the floor' next season: NBA commish.
  

CNBC.com:

• Samsung says profits likely rose 58% in the third quarter, beating estimates.
• The stock market may be too optimistic about stimulus chances.
• Eli Lilly shares jump after company says it’s seeking FDA clearance for antibody drug.
  

MarketWatch.com:      

• Costco sales continue surge, increasing from record levels.

Zero Hedge:

• CA Officials Topple Giant 'TRUMP' Sign Overlooking 405 Freeway, Citing 'Life And Safety Hazard'.
• Cultural Revolution: Woke Totalitarians Have Taken Over Campus.
• Despite "Craving For Normalcy", Here Are Nine Reasons Why Trump May Still Win.
• Hurricane Delta To Strike Gulf Coast Friday.
• "It’s A Civil War": Decade Of Covenant-Lite Deals Leads To Leveraged Loan "Panic".
• Regeneron Shares Jump After Trump Calls COVID Treatment "A Cure".
• While Most Companies Went "Work From Home", Houston's Phillips 66 Implemented A "Work From Work" Policy.
• COVID-19 Debate Infected By Fallacy Of Averages.
• Brazil Becomes 3rd Country To Pass 5 Million Confirmed Cases Of COVID-19: Live Updates.
• Tesla Says "Operations Disrupted" Last Month After "Malicious Sabotage" Attempt At Fremont.
• Instagram Bans QAnon Accounts, But Refuses To Remove ISIS Accounts Celebrating 9/11.
• Massive Short-Squeeze Reverses Trump-Tweet Losses, Bond Vol Explodes.

The Epoch Times: 

• Disappointed at Trump’s Speedy COVID-19 Recovery, Chinese State Media Spreads Fake News.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.0 -1.75 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 43.0 -2.25 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.42 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 207.0 +4.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 31.62 -.33%
• FTSE 100 futures +.11%.

• S&P 500 futures +.18%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.24%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (AYI)/2.01
• (CCL)/-1.81
• (DPZ)/2.42
• (HELE)/2.32
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 820K versus 837K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 11,400K versus 11,767K prior. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Mexico inflation data report, Bloomberg Oct. US Economic Survey, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, $23B 30Y T-Bond auction, (MRVL) investor day and the (CCL) business update could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finished modestly higher. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Vaccine/Treatment Optimism, Stimulus Hopes, Short-Covering, Biotech/Financial Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 28.0 -4.9%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 193.0 +177.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.2 +.6%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.7 +.7%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.6 -8.3%

• ISE Sentiment Index 104.0 +10.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .74 -11.9%

• NYSE Arms .56 -69.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.80 -3.77%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 825.09 -1.35%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 70.10 -2.94%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 128.0 unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.56 -1.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 210.16 -2.83%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 178.19 +.02%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.5 -.25 basis point

• TED Spread 13.0 -1.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.5 +.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  85.0 -2.25 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 67.0 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.42 +.08%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.

• Yield Curve 60.0 -2.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 117.40 USD/Metric Tonne -.11%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 155.2 -2.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 47.60 -5.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 46.8 -.6 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.70 +2.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +88 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +275 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -7 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

 

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +1.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gaming -.9% 2) Education -.6% 3) Energy -.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• IPOC, SWTX, PGNY, DKNG, BAND and LMNX
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MTDR 2) MDLZ 3) LEVI 4) RSX 5) XRT
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BAND 2) GOOG 3) BLNK 4) MTD  5) GE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume