Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +16.1% Above 100-Day Average
• 10 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
• 53.2% of Issues Advancing, 43.8% Declining
• 110 New 52-Week Highs, 7 New Lows
• 54.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.9% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 242.0 +49.0 points
• Vix 26.4 -2.1%
• Total Put/Call 1.09 +43.4%
• TRIN/Arms .69 +3.0%

 

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.5 +.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 39.75 unch.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.21 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 190.0 -3.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 28.55 -1.13%
• FTSE 100 futures +.91%.

• S&P 500 futures +.32%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.38%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (ALLY)/.70
• (BMI)/.38
  
• (BK)/.94
• (JBHT)/1.28
• (KSU)/1.90
• (SLB)/.13
• (STT)/1.41
• (VFC)/.47
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Retail Sales Advance MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +.6% gain in Aug.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.7% gain in Aug.
• Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas for Sept. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.7% gain in Aug.
  

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.4% gain in Aug.
• Capacity Utilization for Sept. is estimated to rise to 71.8% versus 71.4% in Aug.
• Manufacturing Production for Sept. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +1.0% gain in Aug.
  

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for Aug. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.1% gain in July.
• Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for Oct. is estimated to rise to 80.5 versus 80.4 in Sept.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PMI report and the (SAFM) investor day could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finished mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

 

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Virus Worries, Biden Presidency/Tax Hike Fears, Earnings Jitters, Tech/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing in Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 26.3 +3.3%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 171.0 -160.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.80 -.13%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.18 +.36%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 45.5 +4.0%

• ISE Sentiment Index 112.0 -9.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .75 +7.14%

• NYSE Arms .84 unch.

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.69 +1.55%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 812.91 +.55%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 74.38 +5.0%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 131.0 +7.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.09 +3.13%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 208.78 -.19%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 179.20 +.13%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.25 unch.

• TED Spread 14.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.25 -1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  85.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 68.0 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.21 -.30%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .10% unch.

• Yield Curve 57.25 -2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 114.50 USD/Metric Tonne -.23%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 138.8 +1.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 33.80 -2.0 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 44.7 +.5 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.70 +1.0 basis point
• 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +3 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -89 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +7 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -1.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Biotech -2.7% 2) Alt Energy -2.2% 3) Video Gaming -1.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• VLO, FSLR, APPN, CLDR, NFE, VLDR, LYFT, DISH, DKNG, HGEN, EXPE, GH, AKAM, DYN, RDFN, ACCD, OCUL, AA, TTD, EVER, EGAN, CRNC, LMND, NET, IPOB, AMCX, PAND, ALLO, APPS, ARVN, BE, BCLI, FMCI, VRTX and FSLY
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) TFC 2) IBB 3) VGK 4) AMCX 5) EQR
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) FSLY 2) TTD 3) ACB 4) UAL 5) ROKU
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) I-Banks +.9% 2) REITs +.6% 3) Retail +.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SNBR, REPL, USX, ARWR, ANAB, GME, ATEC, ZM, SHOO, MDRX, GRA, CARG, RAVN, AAXN, ANDE, BG, IOVA, PTON, SAGE and PE
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) AMCX 2) TRIP 3) TIF 4) UAA 5) Z

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CARS 2) AVXL 3) ZM 4) SONO 5) SCHW
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -11.1% Below 100-Day Average
• 2 Sectors Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
• 35.3% of Issues Advancing, 62.0% Declining
• 25 New 52-Week Highs, 16 New Lows
• 54.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 105.0 -225.0 points
• Vix 28.2 +6.8%
• Total Put/Call .74 +5.7%
• TRIN/Arms .82 -2.4%