Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 4,241.13 +.12%*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com. 

Indices

• DJIA 34,431.0 -1.1%

• NASDAQ 14,046.0 +1.5%

• Russell 2000 2,330.0 +1.6%

• S&P 500 High Beta 77.1 -1.4%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 349.0 +4.8%

• Wilshire 5000 44,344.9 +.4%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,623.03 +1.45%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,584.74 -.8%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 725.60 -1.2%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,397.72 -1.4%
  

• NYSE Technology 3,995.30 +.75%

• Transports 15,328.70 -.99%

• Utilities 910.31 +.68%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 74.42 -.89%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 55.22 -1.6%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,428.57 +.16%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 942.26 -.66%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 479,636 +.58%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 753 +344

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -38.46 -.63%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 491,297 +3.3%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,507,073 +3.3%

• Total Put/Call .80 +3.6%

• OEX Put/Call 2.37 +34.1%

• ISE Sentiment 147.0 +41.0 points

• NYSE Arms 1.19 -23.3% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,327.0 -278.0 points
• Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 3.54 +6.2% 
  

• Volatility(VIX) 15.6 -4.0%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.4 -2.4%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 5.66 -8.1%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.46 -5.6%

• Smart Money Flow Index 14,224.83 -1.9%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.605 Trillion -.15%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +.810 Million

• AAII % Bulls 40.2 -8.8%

• AAII % Bears 20.7 +4.6%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 212.25 +.8%

• Crude Oil 70.9 +2.5%

• Reformulated Gasoline 218.63 -1.0%

• Natural Gas 3.30 +6.1%

• Heating Oil 211.80 +.02%

• Gold 1,876.81 -.69%
• Silver 27.97 +.84%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 467.65 +.21%

• Copper 454.35 +.41%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 515.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.6%

• China Iron Ore Spot 210.10 USD/Metric Tonne +9.4%

• Lumber 1,059.20 -17.5%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,295.50 -.14%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 400.0 USD/Short Ton +5.3%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +9.3% -1.0 percentage point
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +19.5% -.5 percentage point
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 10.0% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index +10.01 -10.9%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 142.7 +183.0%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 199.41 +.56%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 47.1 +36.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 128.90 -17.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 88.2 +28.6 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 97.0% chance of no change, 3.0% chance of rate hike on 6/16

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.913 Trillion +.22%

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 69.0 +3.25 basis points
  
• Markit CMBX BBB-6 74.75 +2.0 basis points

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 18.0 unch.
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,175.90 -.8%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 402,500 -5.96%

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.5% -20.0 basis points
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 2.96% -3.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 645,400 -3.08%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 55.4 -.2 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +14.5% +140.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $3.08/gallon +.03/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 2,669 +9.5%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 2,296.36 +3.4%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 17.5 -12.5%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 185.71 -5.3%

• Rail Freight Carloads 261,647 -8.81%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +2.8%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value -.8%
  

Leading Sectors

• Shipping +6.7%

• Biotech +5.6%
  

• Alt Energy +3.2%

• Education +3.0%

• Pharma +2.6%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Road & Rail -2.1%
  

• Insurance -2.3%

• Banks -3.6%

• Oil Service -3.7%

• Homebuilding -4.8%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (15)

• SAVA, ANVS, MDLA, AFRM, CCXI, ARWR, CLOV, NESR, CLF, ZM, WKHS, HA, CRC, UWMC and BPMP
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (5)

• CRCT, GOGO, RAMP, UPST and FMSX
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -22.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• 6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
• 56.1% of Issues Advancing, 39.2% Declining
• 169 New 52-Week Highs, 7 New Lows
• 89.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 53.9%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,340.0 -16.0 points
• Vix 15.5 -3.5%
• Total Put/Call .81 +3.9%
• TRIN/Arms 1.19 -6.3%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:            

• China’s PBOC Gets Local Government Help in Avoiding Cash Crunch.
• Asian Stocks Steady as U.S. Shrugs Off CPI Jump: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Poised for Third Weekly Gain on Improving Demand Outlook.
• Inflation Risks, ECB Boosts Stimulus, Taiwan Trade Ties: Eco Day.
• Tech Giants Lift S&P 500 to Record as Reddit Favorites Languish.  
• Bitcoin Ruling Roils Crypto World Seeking Regulatory Clarity.
  
• Bipartisan Senate Group Seals $1.2 Trillion Infrastructure Deal.  
• U.S. Corn Stocks Dwindle in Latest Jolt to Inflation Fears.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S. Lifts Some Iran Sanctions Amid Stalled Nuclear Talks.
• Which Prices Are Rising—and Staying That Way.
• A Made-in-Washington Inflation Spike.
• The Ruthless Hackers Behind Ransomware Attacks on U.S. Hospitals.
• The Pandemic’s Toll on Teen Mental Health.
• Keystone XL’s Demise Shows Hard Road for New Pipelines.
• Amazon Faces Possible $425 Million EU Privacy Fine.
  

Fox News:

• 8th grader rips school proposal allowing 'boys into girls locker rooms'.
  

CNBC.com:

• GameStop shares crater 27% as ousted CEO walks away with millions: CNBC After Hours.
• Chewy CEO says dog, cat adoption rates have remained high as the economy reopens.
• Meme stocks hit a wall with GameStop, AMC and Clover falling.
• Inflation is hotter than expected, but it looks temporary and likely won’t affect Fed policy yet.

MarketWatch.com:       

• Here’s what sparked the latest talk over $100 oil prices.
  
• Medicare copays for new Alzheimer’s drug could hit $11,500 annually.
  
• House Democrats set to reshape antitrust law with 5 new bills.
  
• AMC board members sold nearly $4 million worth of stock this week.

Zero Hedge: 

• CDC To Hold "Emergency Meeting" After 100s Suffer Heart Inflammation Following COVID Vaccines.
• $1.2 Trillion Manchin-Backed Infrastructure Plan Reached By Bipartisan Group Of Senators.
• Watch: Rand Paul Says "Elitist" Fauci Believes Americans Too Stupid To See Through "Pseudoscience".
• Ford Secures 100,000 Reservations For Electric F-150 As Pre-Order Count Climbs.
• South Korean Inventor Creates "Third Eye" As A Warning To "Smartphone Zombies".
• "A Dangerous Precedent" - 3rd FDA Advisor Quits After Controversial Alzheimer's Drug Approval.
• Melvin Capital Among Hedge Funds Losing $6 Billion On Latest Meme Squeeze.
• BofA Just Threw Up All Over The Fed's "Transitory" Argument: Here's Why.
• Sen. Lindsey Graham: Trump Would Have Won 2020 Election If Wuhan Lab Leak Theory Was Proven.
• Public Health Officials Stumped As Southern States' Vaccination Rate Continues To Drag.
• Guatemala's President Says Biden Admin's Unclear Messaging On Illegal Immigration Fueled Border Surge.
• Household Net Worth Hits Record $137 Trillion, Up $25.6 Trillion Since COVID.
• From Spank Bank To Food Bank: Toobin Post-Masturbation Redemption Tour Kicks Off.
• Bonds & Bullion Bid As Meme-Stocks Are Monkey-Hammer'd.

Newsmax:

• Ric Grenell: Govt. Defense, Intel Contractors Should Not Do Business With China.
• Experts Say $400B in Pandemic Unemployment Funds Likely Stolen.
  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• President Trump Says the Joint Chiefs of Staff Should All Be Fired If They Think Climate Change Is America’s Greatest Threat.
• More Bad News for Megalomaniac Tony Fauci: Over 70% of Americans Believe It’s at Least Somewhat Likely COVID Was Created in Lab.
• NEW: Passengers on First Fully Vaccinated North American Cruise Test Positive For Covid-19.
• Ilhan Omar Denounced by House Dem Leadership For Comparing America to Hamas and the Taliban.
• CNN Says Kamala Harris’ First Foreign Trip Was a Disaster (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times: 

• Sen. Tommy Tuberville: Federal Pension Funds Should Be Banned from Investing in China.

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 83.75 -.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 35.5 -1.0 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.97 +.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,194.0 -161.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.54 +.5%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.01%.

• S&P 500 futures -.01%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.07%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for June is estimated to rise to 84.2 versus 82.9 in May.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The UK Industrial Production report, Bloomberg June US Economic Survey and the (FDX) June economic update could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.5 -8.0%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,354.0 +77.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.64 -.22%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.6 -.12%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.6 -3.8%

• ISE Sentiment Index 114.0  -18.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .77 +18.5%

• NYSE Arms 1.09 -16.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.2 -2.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 409.28 -.66%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.0 -1.33%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 105.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 84.0 +.51%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 148.68 -1.41%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.2 unch.

• 2-Year Swap Spread 6.75 unch.

• TED Spread 10.75 +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  69.0 +.25 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.25 +.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.96 +.34%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 132.0 -6.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 210.0 USD/Metric Tonne +2.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.3 +11.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 131.0 +2.5 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 64.2 +.2 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 +1.0 basis point
• 97.2% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting, 97.2% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +71 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -54 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +15 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long