Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +2.7% 2) Oil Service +2.6% 3) Energy +1.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• UPST, GNRC, CRSR, AYX, APTS, UE, CRGY, REZI, WAB, ABNB, COWN and MRVI
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) SPGI 2) IAA 3) DVN 4) AKAM 5) APTS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) GNRC 2) UPST 3) INUV 4) MYTE 5) OC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -1.7% Below 100-Day Average 
• 2 Sectors Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
• 50.0% of Issues Advancing, 46.2% Declining
• 50 New 52-Week Highs, 120 New Lows
• 37.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.7% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,501.0 +31.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,608.0 -.69%
  
• Vix 26.0 +1.3%
• Total Put/Call .94 +2.2%
• TRIN/Arms .90 +7.1%

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:      

• Trudeau’s Use of Emergency Law Provokes Confusion and Criticism.  
• How Nationalism in China Has Dethroned Nike and Adidas.  
• Korea Adds Most Jobs Since 2000 as Economy Weathers Omicron.
  
• Democrats Vow to Curb Inflation as GOP Savors Told-You-So Moment.
• Stocks Climb on Prospect of Easing Ukraine Tension: Markets Wrap.
  
• Coachella and Stagecoach Are Dropping All Covid Requirements.  
• Transport Crunch Spurs West Fraser Timber to Curtail Lumber Production.  
• The U.S.-Mexico Avocado Dispute Is Already Causing Shortages.   
• Permian Roughneck Shortage Clouds Outlook for Oil Output Growth.

Wall Street Journal:

• The Fed Missed Inflation. Can Powell Tame It Without Causing a Recession?
• Russia Offers Mixed Signals on Ukraine.
• Woman Appears Cured of HIV After Umbilical-Cord Blood Transplant.
• GOP Senator Drops Hold on Stopgap Spending Bill Over Drug Pipes.
• Justin Trudeau’s Trucker Emergency. Canada doesn’t need extraordinary powers. It needs to enforce the law and compromise on vaccine mandates.
• ViacomCBS Renames Itself Paramount.
• Biden Administration Seeking Additional $30 Billion for Covid-19 Response.
• As Black Voters Sour on Biden, Will They Abandon the Democrats? Their decadeslong loyalty to the party was already beginning to show signs of becoming weaker.

Fox News:   

• EXCLUSIVE: Trump says Durham probe exposing 'the crime of the century,' predicts it's 'just the beginning'.
• Hillary Clinton reacts to being asked point blank if she spied on Donald Trump's campaign.
• Stefanik calls for ‘criminal prosecution’ over Durham probe revelations.
• MSNBC mocked for false claim about Trump when it was Hillary all along.

CNBC.com:

• Some lawmakers and their families are betting thousands of dollars on crypto.
• Shares of metaverse company Roblox plummet after missing fourth quarter expectations.
• Airbnb beats on earnings and gives strong guidance.
• Vote on Biden Fed picks delayed as GOP presses for answers on Raskin’s ties to firm.
• Soaring lumber price adds nearly $19,000 to the cost of a new home.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after-hours: Airbnb, Roblox, Wynn Resorts & more.

MarketWatch:      

• Apple is Berkshire’s largest stock holding, but Buffett and Co. own a bigger share of these companies.

Zero Hedge:

• Why Did Masks Stop Working In Japan And South Korea?
• Prince Andrew Settles Pedo Trial, Will Pay Accuser $10 Million.
• Now We've Done It: We Pissed Off The CIA.
• The Zombification Of The Economy. 
• Little Known Fund Manager's 11 Year Bet On Avis Nets Him $2 Billion And His Investors 35% Returns For 2021.
• Single-Family Home Rents Surge At Fastest Pace Ever.
• The Unstated Scandal: The CIA Collected Info On President Trump.
• A Far Greater Risk Emerges: Bond Market Liquidity Is Quietly Collapsing.
• WTI Holds Losses Despite Across-The-Board Inventory Draws.
• The Official Story.
• When Will Jake Sullivan - Biden's National Security Advisor - Be Indicted For Russiagate Lies?
• Biden: Attack On Ukraine "Still Very Much A Possibility" - Russian Draw Down "Not Verified".
• Crude Crushed, Stocks Surge, Bitcoin Bid As US-Russia Tensions 'Ease'.

Newsmax:   

• Biden: Defending Ukraine Liberty Could Cause US Economic Pain.
• Ukraine Hit by Cyberattack as US Questions Claims of a Russian Troop Pullback.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Tom Fitton Issues Warning on the Current GOP Leaders: “Under the Current Republican Leadership Nothing Is Going to Get Done” (VIDEO).
• “He’s Going to Deliver. He’s Unraveling BIGGEST Political Scandal in US History” – KASH PATEL DROPS BOMBS – Durham Grand Jury Interviewed 24 People So Far (VIDEO).
• Reporter Asks Psaki Why Biden Regime Told Americans Fleeing to Poland to Bring Proof of Covid Vax When “Poland Doesn’t Require That” (VIDEO).
• Little Castro: Justin Trudeau Is Now Threatening Tow Truck Drivers – Those Who Do Not Cooperate with Canadian Regime, Could Face Arrest.
• 204 Legislators Call For 50-State Audit, Decertification Where Appropriate, and Possible Convening of the US House of Representatives.
• BREAKING: Suspect Arrested Over Attempted Assassination of Louisville Mayoral Candidate is BLM Activist and Black Nationalist Championed by Obama.
• LAWRENCE SELLIN: Billions Go from US Taxpayers -> NIH -> US Universities -> Scientists in China -> Chinese Military.
• JUST IN: Ottawa Police Chief Resigns Amid Freedom Convoy Protest.
• “In My Estimation, the NSA and Intelligence Community Worked with Hillary Clinton Campaign to Surveil a Sitting President” – Kash Patel on Charlie Kirk (VIDEO).
• US Poll Finds Large Majority of American Voters Support Freedom Convoy Protests by Canadian Truckers.
• Obama/Biden Administration Kills the Israel to Europe Gas Pipeline a Second Time Helping Russia Instead.

The Epoch Times:

• China’s ‘Tacit Support’ for Russia in Ukraine Crisis ‘Deeply Alarming’: Pentagon.

Twitter: 

• @VigilantFox - Medicare is giving hospitals 20% bonuses if they use both of these codes: a COVID-19 diagnosis and treatment using remdesivir. (video)
• @RedCollie1 -  "It doesn't matter if you have 1 shot or 10 shots!"
  Doug Ford, Premier of Ontario. (video)
• @mtracey -  Translation: the AP allowed anonymous US officials to use them as a conduit to call @zerohedge a front for Russian propaganda, even though they admit the alleged association is not based on any "direct links" -- i.e., no real evidence. Such great journalism here, @NomaanMerchant
• @alexandrosM -  The Remdesivir Riddle. Why was this drug administered at the wrong time, at great financial and human cost, despite what logic and research dictated? Walk with me through the mystery in this article, or simply scroll down for a thread to summarize.
  

GETTR:

• @DiscloseTV - JUST IN - Executive Officer Christopher Cole for the "Medical Countermeasures Initiative" at the FDA says on hidden cam the Biden admin plans an annual jab. "So, you'll have to get an annual shot. I mean it hasn't been formally announced yet, cause they don't want to rile everyone up." (video) JUST IN - Twitter has suspended the account of Defiant L's, a popular account that only posts screenshots of peoples’ hypocritical tweets. JUST IN - Netherlands to go "back to normal," almost all Covid restrictions will be lifted by February 25, the health minister announced.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 753,481 Reports(+5,722 from prior week) Through February 4th, 2021.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 97.75 -1.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 52.75 -1.25 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.64 -.04%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,538.0 +67. points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.7 +.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.16%.

• S&P 500 futures -.30%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.34%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ADI)/1.78
• (GOLD)/.30
• (CROX)/1.90
• (GRMN)/1.43
• (GNRC)/2.41
• (HLT)/.75
• (KHC)/.63
• (OC)/1.91
• (R)/2.49
• (SHOP)/1.31
• (SAH)/1.85
• (TTD)/.28
• (VMC)/1.17
• (WING)/.32
  

After the Close:

• (ALB)/.98
• (AMAT)/1.85
• (CAKE)/.58
• (CSCO)/.81
• (CPRT)/1.07
• (DASH)/.07
• (H)/-.18
• (MRO)/.56
• (NVDA)/1.22
• (PXD)/3.87
• (RGLD)/.91
• (SPWR)/.01
• (SNPS)/2.37
• (TRIP)/.07
• (TRUP)/.03
• (VMI)/2.65
• (VECO)/.37
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Retail Sales Advance MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +2.0% versus a -1.9% decline in Dec.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a -2.3% decline in Dec.
• Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas for Jan. is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a -2.5% decline in Dec.  
• The Import Price Index MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a -.2% decline in Dec.
• The Export Price Index MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a -1.8% decline in Dec.
  

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a -.1% decline in Dec.
• Capacity Utilization for Jan. is estimated to rise to 76.8% versus 76.5% in Dec.
• Manufacturing Production for Jan. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.3% decline in Dec. 
  

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for Dec. is estimated to rise +2.1% versus a +1.3% gain in Nov.
• The NAHB Housing Market Index for Feb. is estimated to fall to 82.0 versus 83.0 in Jan.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -919,330 barrels versus a -4,756,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +520,110 barrels versus a -1,644,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,544,560 barrels versus a -930,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.8% versus a +1.5% gain the prior week.

2:00 pm EST

• Jan. 26th FOMC Meeting Minutes.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The UK GDP report, 20Y T-Bond auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Keefe Bruyette Woods Financial Services Conference and the CSFB Financial Services Forum could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Diminishing Russia/Ukraine Tension Hopes, Dollar Weakness, Short-Covering, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 25.8 -8.9%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,458.0 +186.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.31 +.55%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.3 -2.4%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 43.1 -6.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 117.0 +37.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.07 -4.5%

• NYSE Arms 1.08 unch.

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.19 -2.0%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 421.14 -.62%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 74.66 -2.4%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 165.0 -4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.26 -.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 217.28 -2.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.34 -.33% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 847.20 -12.5%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.0 unch.
  

• TED Spread 11.0 -5.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.75 +1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  98.25 +.75 basis point
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 51.20 -.06%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.61 +.39%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .39% +3.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 41.75 -.5 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 136.5 USD/Metric Tonne -4.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.1 -3.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 44.0 -1.5 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 32.9 +.5 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.5 -1.0 basis point
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 359 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 21.0%(-2.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -44/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -55.1%(unch.) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +535 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +72 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -5 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/medical/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.8%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Energy -2.3% 2) Gold & Silver -1.2% 3) Utilities -.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• HE, COUP, PXD, SCI, MRO, LH, OXY, HTZ, STZ, ARVN, CRL, CERE, IQV, SYNH, PRDS, OMCL, IPGP, CYTK, FIS, CLR, CAR and MEDP
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CHTR 2) TIP 3) SPCE 4) IGV 5) ASHR
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CAR 2) MRO 3) MEDP 4) OXY 5) PFE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +5.6% Above 100-Day Average 
• 9 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 73.3% of Issues Advancing, 23.6% Declining
• 24 New 52-Week Highs, 138 New Lows
• 39.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 44.7% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,435.0 +161.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,618.0 +.48%
  
• Vix 26.5 -6.6%
• Total Put/Call 1.07 -4.5%
• TRIN/Arms 1.21 +12.0%