Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +1.0%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +4.1% 2) Energy +3.0% 3) Retail +2.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• VERU, ENVX, ASTS, NOTV, STKL, QTRX, WRBY, RAD, VZIO, DDS, STAA, AOSL, PRVA, BROS, TRUP, PRMW, HGTY, BLNK, MARA, BEAM, LMND, DIS, SMR, CLAR, RBLX, CAH, FRPT and AMC
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) NVTA 2) HRB 3) AIG 4) PPL 5) FLEX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AIT 2) VCSA 3) ENVX 4) DDS 5) BRCC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +14.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
• 67.4% of Issues Advancing, 28.8% Declining
• 51 New 52-Week Highs, 16 New Lows
• 29.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.1% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,682.0 +81.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,928.25 -.77%
  
• Vix 20.5 +3.8%
• Total Put/Call .85 -12.4%
• TRIN/Arms 1.06 +112.0%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 151.0 +1.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 78.0 -2.5 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 49.22 +.01%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,383.0 +4.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.3 +.3%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.08%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.09%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ACMR)/.03
• (AXL)/.10
• (DKNG)/-.85
• (FLR)/.30
• (GT)/.35
• (SRCL)/.44
• (LESL)/.74
• (WDC)/1.74
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST:

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for July is estimated at 250K versus 372K in June.
• The Unemployment Rate for July is estimated at 3.6% versus 3.6% in June.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for July is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in June.
• Labor Force Participation rate for July is estimated at 62.2% versus 62.2% in June.  

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for June is estimated to rise to $26.0B versus $22.347B in May.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Japan Economic Indicators could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Escalating China Tensions, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Technical Resistance, Energy/Bank Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.9 -.1%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .54% -44.3%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,372.0 -44.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.17 +.14%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.3 -.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 43.1 -.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 101.0 -6.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .84 -4.6%

• NYSE Arms .95 -15.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 80.8 -1.3%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 477.40 -.50%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 422.0 -12.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 110.75 +1.1%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 213.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 150.82 -.23%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 318.01 -2.0%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.65 +.02%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 14,699.1 +9.1%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 27.75 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 38.0 basis points +7.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.25 basis points +1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  114.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.69 +.4%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .99 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 49.19 +.36%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.42% -4.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -36.5 basis points (2s/10s) -.5 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 106.75 USD/Metric Tonne -1.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -43.5 +.4 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -53.7 +.8 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 21.4 +.2 point 
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate Growth Rate +16.1% +.2 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +1.45% +.19 percentage point
  

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.47 -3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for November 2nd FOMC meeting: 45.4%(-1.5 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. Highest target rate probability for December 14th meeting: 44.3%(+1.0 percentage point) chance of 3.25%-3.5%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 252 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 14.5%(-1.6 percentage points) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -28/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -71.6%(-1.0 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -50 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -24 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -17 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my medical/commodity sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  50% net long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +4.4% Above 100-Day Average 
• 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
• 47.3% of Issues Advancing, 48.4% Declining
• 20 New 52-Week Highs, 19 New Lows
• 28.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.8% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,347.0 -63.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,105.25 +.07%
  
• Vix 22.2 +1.2%
• Total Put/Call .84 -4.6%
• TRIN/Arms .85 -24.8%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 149.5 -2.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 80.5 -7.75 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 49.03 +.03%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,500.0 +85.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.3 +.4%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.19%.

• S&P 500 futures +.02%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.05%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (APD)/2.61
• (BABA)/10.50
• (ATI)/.37
• (APTV)/.60
• (BDX)/2.50
• (CHH)/1.45
• (CI)/5.49
• (COP)/3.85
• (CROX)/2.69
• (DDOG)/.15
• (DUK)/1.08
• (LLY)/1.71
• (ICE)/1.27
• (IRM)/.72
• (JCI)/.84
• (K)/1.05
• (RIDE)/-.45
• (MUR)/1.54
• (MYGN)/.02
• (PZZA)/.75
• (PH)/4.70
• (PENN)/.50
• (PWR)/1.53
• (SHAK)/-.02
• (VMC)/1.65
• (W)/-1.88
• (YETI)/.68
• (ZTS)/1.22
  

After the Close:

• (AES)/.31
• (Y)/18.15
• (AMC)/-.23
• (AMGN)/4.33
• (BYND)/-1.14
• (SQ)/.16
• (CVNA)/-1.98
• (CHGG)/.33
• (NET)/-.01
• (ED)/.59
• (DASH)/-.02
• (DBX)/.37 
• (EOG)/2.790
• (EXPE)/1.59
• (LYFT)/-.05
• (MTW)/.30
• (MTZ)/.72
• (MNST)/.70
• (PSA)/3.92
• (RMAX)/.64
• (SWKS)/2.35
• (SYNA)/3.67
• (TRIP)/.26
• (OLED)/1.05
• (XPO)/1.51
• (YELP)/.46
• (ZG)/.34
  

Economic Releases

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY  for July.
  

8:30 am EST:

• The Trade Deficit for June is estimated at -$80.0B versus -$85.5B in May.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 260K versus 256K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1383K versus 1359K prior.  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Mester speaking, Eurozone retail sales report, BofE rate decision and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.