Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 Index 4,263.87 +2.8%

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 33,666.9 +2.68%

• NASDAQ 12,999.57 +2.72%

• Russell 2000 2,009.69 +4.5%

• S&P 500 High Beta 71.82 +3.56%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 236.0 +7.5%

• Wilshire 5000 43,055.83 +3.09%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,562.71 +2.37%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,569.52 +3.44%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 780.51 +.84%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,172.58 +.24%
  

• NYSE Technology 3,154.68 +1.85%

• Transports 15,103.0 +3.49%

• Utilities 1,036.95 +2.3%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 72.66 +2.4%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 41.02 +2.5%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,447.67 +.39%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 905.62 -.20%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 446,674 +.82%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 79 +115
  

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -30.7 +5.0%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 253,752 -2.1%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,606,910 +.59%

• Total Put/Call .97 +9.5%

• OEX Put/Call 2.38 +11.2%

• ISE Sentiment 112.0 +18.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms .99 +100.0% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,823.0 +291.0 points
• Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 2.99 -2.0%
  

• Volatility(VIX) 19.2 -8.8%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .45% -54.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 41.1 -5.7%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.2 -9.1%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 11.4 -5.3%

• Smart Money Flow Index 15,552.46 -.37%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.567 Trillion -.18%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$8.100 Million

• AAII % Bulls 32.2 +5.2%

• AAII % Bears 36.7 -5.7%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 295.06 +4.99%

• Crude Oil 92.32 +4.4%

• Reformulated Gasoline 305.50 +6.4%

• Natural Gas 8.77 +10.0%

• Heating Oil 353.68 +10.6% 
• Newcastle Coal 403.0 (1,000/metric ton) +13.5%
  

• Gold 1,799.55 +1.2%
• Silver 20.72 +3.3%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 453.59 +4.5%

• Copper 367.0 +2.8%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 395.0 USD/Metric Tonne +7.05%

• China Iron Ore Spot 109.90 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%

• Lumber  592.40 +23.9%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,520.84 +3.7%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 695.0 USD/Short Ton -1.4%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.5% +.1 percentage point
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -13.4% -.2 percentage point
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 50.0% +10.0 percentage points
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 3.2 +1.3%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 93.7 -62.6%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 236.39 -na:  Growth Rate +15.4% -na percentage point, P/E 18.0 +na point

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -25.2 +.2 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -47.8 +2.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 37.3 +14.0 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point rate hike, 55.5%(+23.5 percentage points) chance of +50.0 basis point hike, 44.5%(-23.5 percentage points) chance of +75.0 basis point hike on 9/21

• US Dollar Index 105.68 -.74%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,667.08 +.33%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 24,004.0 +3.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.13 -.24%
  

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) -39.5 +.75 basis point
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.86% +3.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.843 Trillion -.05%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 19.72 -2.3%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 200.74 +.03%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 209.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 71.63 -9.3%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 245.65 -9.9%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 41.47 -6.0%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 33.99 -14.99%

• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 10,047.64 -31.2%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.41 -.15%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.48% +1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 37.25 -2.25 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 30.25 +4.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.5 -4.0 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 74.75 -6.9%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 346.0 -1.5%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 100.08 -10.0%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 279.90 -11.4%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 114.0 -11.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.15 +.06%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .98 +1.0 basis point

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 5.9 unch.
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,176.80 +.7%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 252,000 +1.8%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.0% unch.
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 43.64 -.86% 

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 5.54% +13.0 basis points
  

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 279,800 +.21%

• Weekly Retail Sales +10.4% -3.7 percentage points
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 -2.6% -3.5 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $150.9M -22.1%
  

• Nationwide Gas $3.98/gallon -.13/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,556 -.26%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 3,073.28 -2.9%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 32.50 unch.
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 63.12 -3.2%

• Rail Freight Carloads 269,953 -.89%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,327,062 +7.3%
• US Covid-19:  224 infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 12.9%(n/a) of peak on 1/14/22(1,740) +n/a/100K people from prior report
  
• US Covid-19:  New patient hospital admissions per 100K -72.1%(n/a) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22-1/15/22
  

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +4.4%.

Worst Performing Style

•  Mid-Cap Growth +2.6%
  

Leading Sectors

• Alt Energy +8.9%

• Oil Service +6.4%
  

• Insurance +6.0%

• Retail +5.9%

• Energy +5.8%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Biotech +.8%
  

• Pharma -.2%

• Video Gaming -.2%

• Semis -.3%
  

• Education -3.9%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (29)

• ALT, PLL, LZ, EVGO, BBBY, CHPT, GLUE, VUZI, TOST, GFS, VERU, DKNG, ICPT, BLNK, STAA, LMND, AVNT, PCT, RLMD, MOD, BR, CION, BE, CAH, RXDX, ALB, CPRX, ENVX, BRCC and CRGY
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (6)

• QDEL, GXO, ITCI, PTLO, CERT and FORG
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on US Soft Landing Hopes, Lower Long-Term Rates, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.3 -4.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .68% +4.5%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,793.0 +41.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.08 -.22%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.4 -.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 41.1 -.19% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 113.0 +3.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.01 +11.0%

• NYSE Arms 1.01 +3.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 74.88 -3.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 382.33 -.66%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 334.0 -17.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 99.20 -2.6%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 208.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 139.54 -2.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 280.16 -1.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.42 -.15%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 10,047.60 -3.8%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 30.25 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 37.25 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.75 basis points -1.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  113.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.10 -.21%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .98 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 49.77 +.27%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.55% +2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -39.75 basis points (2s/10s) -4.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 110.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -25.2 +4.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -47.8 +2.4 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 37.3 +5.1 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 236.39 -.08:  Growth Rate +15.4% -.1 percentage point, P/E 18.0 +.1 point
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +2.45% unch.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.10 +8.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.48 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for November 2nd FOMC meeting: 49.7%(-.6 percentage point) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. Highest target rate probability for December 14th meeting: 45.2%(-1.2 percentage points) chance of 3.50%-3.75%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 224 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 12.9%(-0.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -72.3%(-.2 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +89 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -13 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +47 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my medical/commodity/industrial/tech/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% net long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -10.3% Below 100-Day Average 
• 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 62.5% of Issues Advancing, 34.3% Declining
• 22 New 52-Week Highs, 18 New Lows
• 34.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 52.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,788.0 +36.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,947.1 +.27%
  
• Vix 19.4 -4.2%
• Total Put/Call .94 +3.3%
• TRIN/Arms 1.32 +46.7%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 142.0 unch. 

• China Sovereign CDS 74.5 +.5 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 49.62 -.04%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,828.0 +74.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.0 +.4%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.19%.

• S&P 500 futures -.02%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (SPB)/1.42

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST:

• The Import Price Index MoM for July is estimated to fall -1.0% versus a +.2% gain in June.
• The Import Price Index Ex-Petrol MoM for July is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -.4% decline in June.
• The Import Price Index YoY for July is estimated to rise +9.4% versus a +10.7% gain in June.
• The Export Price Index MoM for July is estimated to fall -1.0% versus a +.7% gain in June.  

10:00 am EST

• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for Aug. is estimated to rise to 52.5 versus 51.5 in July.
• Univ. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation Expectations is estimated to fall to +5.1% versus +5.2% in July.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The UK GDP report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by material and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on US Soft Landing Hopes, Short-Covering, Dollar Weakness, Commodity/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.2 +2.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .60% -15.7%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,715.0 +113.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.32 +.26%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.9 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 41.9 -.14% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 115.0 +12.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .85 -12.4%

• NYSE Arms .98 +96.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 75.70 -1.99%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 382.37 -3.0%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 351.0 -7.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 102.0 -2.9%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 206.0 basis points -5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 142.50 -3.9%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 280.61 -2.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.5 -.04%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 10,466.5 -10.9%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 29.5 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 39.25 basis points +4.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.0 basis points -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  111.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.26 -.07%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .98 +2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 49.67 +.09%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.53% -4.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -35.5 basis points (2s/10s) +8.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 112.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -29.3 +.5 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -50.2 unch.
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 32.2 +.2 point 
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 236.47 -.73:  Growth Rate +15.5% -.3 percentage point, P/E 17.9 +.1 point
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +2.45% +.08 percentage point
  

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.47 +3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for November 2nd FOMC meeting: 50.9%(+1.1 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. Highest target rate probability for December 14th meeting: 45.5%(+1.2 percentage points) chance of 3.50%-3.75%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 224 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 12.9%(-na percentage points) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -na/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -72.1%(-na percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +310 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -5 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -21 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my medical/commodity/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% net long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Pharma -1.3% 2) Cyber Security -.8% 3) Biotech -.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PLNT, MIRM, RLMD, UPWK, ENPH, RXDX, CARA, RUN, AERI, HUBS, KROS, ITCI, AMPH, SMAR, PFE, CRNX, MAIN, TASK, LXU, PTLO, EXAS, LTH, FLYW, AVT, HBI, SOVO, BNL, XM, STAR, KOD, SKYT, CYXT, CRDO, BMBL, COIN, ARRY, AEHR, ZNTL, FAZE, APP, ZIMV, CERE, SIX, SEER and SONO
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) NVTA 2) IBB 3) HBI 4) SRG 5) IYR
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NVTA 2) RRGB 3) MQ 4) SIX 5) SONO
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume