Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Retail +4.1% 2) Foods +.9% 3) Banks +.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• BBBY, SKYT, VTYX, VRDN, FAZE, VERU, SST, CRBU, BMEA, GME, KDNY, WMT, ASTS, HD, UPLD and FLYW
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) APRN 2) BGFV 3) GEO 4) ALLY 5) PRTY

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) FN 2) SKYT 3) ARTL 4) FRZA 5) VTYX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -1.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 48.5% of Issues Advancing, 46.9% Declining
• 48 New 52-Week Highs, 9 New Lows
• 39.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 55.0% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,858.0 +206.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,984.34 -.36%
  
• Vix 19.7 -1.1%
• Total Put/Call .97 +6.6%
• TRIN/Arms .71 -43.7%

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:               

• Singapore’s Next Premier Wong Warns US, China May ‘Sleepwalk Into Conflict’.
• Uruguay Lifts Interest Rate to 10.25%, Sees More Hikes Ahead.  
• Stocks in Asia Set for Cautious Open, Crude Slides: Markets Wrap.
• ‘Dr. Doom’ Roubini Sees Either US Hard Landing or Uncontrolled Inflation.
• The Fed’s Past Crises Hold Secrets to Tackling Future Recessions.  
• BofA Says Quantitative Tightening Would Shave 7% Off S&P 500.
• US Homebuilder Confidence Hits Worst Slump Since 2007.
• Apple Sets Return-to-Office Deadline of Sept. 5 After Covid Delays.
• CEOs Blame Remote Workers for Slow Sales, Earnings Shortfalls.
• Citadel Securities Trading Revenue Hits Record $4.2 Billion.  
• Biggest US Real Estate Brokerage Braces for Its First Housing Downturn.  
• Royal Caribbean Pays More Than 11% on Bond to Refinance Debt.

Wall Street Journal:    

• The ESG Investing Backlash Arrives. State AGs seek answers from BlackRock, and a new firm offers alternative investments funds. Strive’s first fund raised more than $100 million in a week.
• Record Numbers of Migrants Cross Southern Border, With Two Million Annual Total in Sight.
• Wall Street Deal Making Faces Greater Scrutiny Under FTC’s Khan.
• Disney Urged by Activist to Spin Off ESPN, Buy Hulu.
• China’s Xi Jinping Economic Slump. The country is paying for the Communist Party chief’s policy mistakes.

Fox News:

• White teachers first on the chopping block during potential layoffs.
• Controversial woke DA responds after recall effort suffers major setback.

CNBC.com:

• Stores and suppliers clash over price hikes as shoppers hit by sticker shock.
• Apple tells employees to be in office three times a week starting in September.
• Homebuilders say U.S. is in a ‘housing recession’ as sentiment turns negative.

MarketWatch:       

• FAA warns staffing shortage will delay flights around New York City.

Zero Hedge:

• CBO: Actually, The "Inflation Reduction Act" Will Cause More Audits For Working Class.
• DOJ Opposes Release Of Underlying Affidavit For FBI Mar-A-Lago Raid.
• The "Big Short" Michael Burry Liquidates Entire Portfolio, Holds Just One Stock At End Of Q2.
• Former White House Chief-Of-Staff Never Witnessed 'Intentional Destruction Of Important Papers'.
• The FBI Is Now The Federal Bureau Of Intimidation.
• Less underweight.
• Foreigners Sold A Record Amount Of US Stocks In The Last 12 Months, China Dumped More USTs In June.
• US stocks notched mild gains led by growth and tech as yields declined on a worrisome NY Fed Manufacturing survey - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• "The Next Leg Lower Is Coming": Mike Wilson Says Stocks Have Already Discounted The Fed Pivot Which Is Probably Not Even Coming.
• Orwellian Moments Abound.
• Top US Cruise Lines Cancel Sailings Amid Labor Shortage.
• Dollar gains on global growth woes after a slew of negative impulses - Newsquawk US Market Wrap. 
• Nomura Warns This Week's OpEx Is "Real": Massive Amount Of Delta Could Spark "De-Risking Flow".
• Bonds & Stocks Soar After Dismal Data Dump.

 Newsmax:

• DOJ Opposes Revealing Evidence Supporting Search of Trump's Home.  
• Rep. Biggs: FBI Crossed 'Rubicon' With Trump Raid.
• Rep. Hice: FBI Raid an 'Enormous Overstep'.  
• Mo. AG: GOP Needs 'Wrecking Ball' for Administrative State.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• WHO IS JOHN DOE?… Mysterious, Anonymous Power Broker is Attempting to Block Gateway Pundit from Accessing Epstein Client List.
• JUST IN: Gascón Dodges Recall After Los Angeles County Bans Observers From Monitoring Recall Vote Count.
• Taliban Celebrates at Abandoned US Embassy with US Weapons and Humvees on the One-Year Anniversary of Fall of Kabul Under Joe Biden (VIDEO).
• “Next Question” – Corrupt Democrat Raskin When Asked How Biden’s ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ will Actually Lower Inflation (VIDEO).
• CIA Director Burns Was Surrounded by Communists in His Prior Job, Joins Prior CIA Directors and Obama Lackeys with Ties to Communists.
• Georgia County That “Found” 2600 Votes for Trump in Nov. 2020 is **MISSING** Election Day Log Files.
• DEVELOPING: Giuliani Says He is a Target of Criminal Investigation in Georgia Election Probe.
• 26-Year-Old Neurosurgeon Dies in July, Making Seven Canadian Doctors to Die in Two Weeks.
• Quadruple Vaxxed Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin Catches COVID for Second Time.
• Confirmed: At Least 20 Undercover FBI and ATF Were Embedded at Capitol on Jan. 6 Along with Several Undercover Capitol Police Agents.
• Quadruple Vaxxed Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla Catches Covid One Year After Claiming His Vaccine Was 100% Effective in Preventing Covid.
• MUST SEE VIDEO: Election Hack Identified that Can Instantaneously Swap Votes on a Ballot Before It Is Even Stored.
• OH NO, NANCY! Pelosi Secretly Met Taiwan Chip Manufacturer – Pelosi’s Son Is 2nd Largest Stakeholder in China Related Company – But “Absolutely” No Business Was Discussed?
  

The Epoch Times:

• ‘End CCP’ Rally Warns of Communist Infiltration, Subversion.
• China Stages More ‘Combat Drills’ Near Taiwan During US Lawmakers’ Visit.
• Lockdown Continues in Xinjiang and Tibet Amid Omicron Surge.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 854,081 Reports(+2,712 from prior week) Through August 5th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 136.75 -1.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 71.75 unch.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 49.50 -.04%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,672.0 +24.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.4 +.9%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures -.15%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.11%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (HD)/4.93
• (LITE)/1.33
• (ONON)/.04
• (SE)/-1.06
• (WMT)/1.60
  

After the Close:

• (A)/1.21
• (JKHY)/1.00
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST:

• Housing Starts for July is estimated to fall to 1527K versus 1559K in June.
• Building Permits for July is estimated to fall to 1640K versus 1685K in June.  

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for July is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.2% decline in June.
• Capacity Utilization for July is estimated to rise to 80.2% versus 80.0% in June.
• Manufacturing Production for July is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.5% decline in June.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The RBA Minutes, weekly US retail sales reports, (JNPR) fireside chat and the Deutsche Bank Transportation Conference could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by material and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Modestly Higher into Afternoon on Less Hawkish Fed Hopes, Lower Long-Term Rates, Technical Buying, Biotech/Airline Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.9 +2.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.1% +26.9%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,693.0 -141.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.44 -1.1%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.7 +2.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 41.0 -1.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 107.0 -11.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .90 -5.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.33 +121.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 73.66 -.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 388.81 +1.69%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 319.0 -15.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 99.97 +.78%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 208.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 137.07 -1.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 285.75 +2.0%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.4 unch.
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 8,669.54 -13.7%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 30.25 basis points unch.
  

• TED Spread 40.5 basis points +3.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.75 basis points unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  115.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.51 +.41%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .99 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 49.50 -.51%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.56% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve -41.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 106.45 USD/Metric Tonne --2.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -34.1 -8.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -48.3 -.5 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 33.6 -3.7 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 236.42 +.03:  Growth Rate +15.4% unch., P/E 18.2 +.2 point
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +2.45% unch.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.20 -10.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.44 -4.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for November 2nd FOMC meeting: 49.8%(-.1 percentage point) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. Highest target rate probability for December 14th meeting: 44.1%(-1.7 percentage points) chance of 3.50%-3.75%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 217 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 12.5%(-.4 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -7/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -75.0%(-2.7 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -32 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +2 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +19 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my medical/tech/utility sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% net long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -4.1% 2) Energy -2.4% 3) Shipping -1.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SGEN, FCX, DEN, SITM, KRTX, BLNK, RVLV, EVH, CRGY, PBT, LPI, CAL, GPRE, LMND, RIVN, VNOM, UPST, ANAB, WHD, INSE, YOU, STAA, SKYT, APP, EXPI, APP, TPIC, GNK, HCP, EGLE and IDYA
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CLAR 2) SABR 3) XLI 4) ICLN 5) XME
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) IDYA 2) PLXP 3) SFT 4) VRM 5) GME
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +2.4% 2) I-Banking +.7% 3) Defense +.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• VRDN, POSH, ASTS, COCO, ILMN, BBBY, MTSI, CRNX, STEM and ZIMV
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PCG 2) APRN 3) SGEN 4) SABR 5) OIH

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) UBX 2) LVVV 3) IQST 4) ANGH 5) BBBY
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume