Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -7.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
• 60.3% of Issues Advancing, 35.4% Declining
• 22 New 52-Week Highs, 36 New Lows
• 36.0% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.1% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 42.7 +2.4%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,809.01 -.14%
  
• Vix 23.3 -2.0%
• Total Put/Call 1.05 -7.1%
• TRIN/Arms .90 +25.0%

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:        

• Europe Gas Surges 20% as Latest Russia Move Deepens Supply Fears.  
• Chinese Banks Are Inflating Their Loan Numbers as Demand Sinks.
• Saudi Prince Says Oil’s Disconnect May Force OPEC+ Action.
• US Slump Pressures Asia Open as Bond Yields Climb: Markets Wrap.
• Home Sellers Are Slashing Prices in Pandemic Boomtowns.
  
• New Apartments at 50-Year High May Ease Pressure on US Rents.  
• Americans’ Pay Floor for Accepting a New Job Rises to $73,000.
• Opinion: Stock Market’s Summer Fling Wasn’t the Real Thing.   
• DeSantis Taps Donors Griffin, Tudor Jones in $142 Million Haul.  
• Harvard’s Status as Wealthiest School Faces Oil-Rich Contender in the University of Texas.  
• ‘Horrible’ Texas Cotton Conditions Worsen Global Supply Outlook.
  
• Credit Suisse Investment Bankers Are Bracing for Brutal Cutbacks.

Wall Street Journal:  

• Crimea, Once a Bastion of Russian Power, Now Reveals Its Weakness.
• Dow Falls More Than 600 Points on Rate Worries.
• Bed Bath & Beyond’s Fizzling Rally Narrows Options for Cash Infusion.
• IPO Market Faces Worst Year in Two Decades. ‘Really Hard Pill to Swallow.’.

Fox News:

• Trump launches legal action over Mar-a-Lago raid, slams 'bias' against him by judge on the case.
• Latest victim of hospitality crisis in deep-Blue cities.

CNBC.com:

• AMC shares fall 40% as Regal Cinemas owner warns of potential bankruptcy, APE units begin trading.
• Ford to eliminate 3,000 jobs in an effort to cut costs.

MarketWatch:         

• Nvidia stock will be solely a data-center story for the foreseeable future.  
• Zoom Video cuts earnings and revenue outlook for the year, stock falls.  
• Palo Alto Networks stock leaps following strong outlook that CEO terms ‘prudent’.  
• U.K. faces threat of 19% inflation. Could that happen in the U.S., too?   
• Why the 10-year yield topping 3% can hurt stocks.  
• AMC goes ‘APE’ as equity units make trading debut.

Zero Hedge:

• Only 13% Of Americans Believe Democrats' $369 Billion Will Reduce Inflation: Poll.
• Russian FSB Identifies Alleged Dugina Assassin. 
• CNN Is Being Gutted Because Leftist Media Is Not As Appealing As They Fantasize.
• Maté: In FBI Vs Trump, The People Lose.
• Record Number Of Americans Are "Suffering", Surpassing 2008 Crisis Levels; Gallup Poll Finds.
• Inspector General: US Government Left More Than $7 Billion In Military Equipment To The Taliban.
• "I Always Eat Red Meat. I'm Happy": As Demand For Higher-End Cuts Slides, Beef Prices Are Falling... For Now.
• A New Epidemic Of Self-Silencing Is Plaguing America.
• US stocks and bonds declined, while EUR/USD slipped beneath parity amid energy woes - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Ron Paul: Super-Sized IRS Will Shrink Liberty.
•   and it's gone...
• China Launches 200 Billion Yuan Bailout Of Reeling Housing Sector.
• The Pause...
• Ultimate Irony: Sacked Stelter Declares "We Must Make Sure We Don't Give Platforms To Those Lying To Our Faces".
• Stocks & Bonds Slammed As Market Reprices Rate-Hike Trajectory Ahead Of J-Hole.
• European energy crisis sees Euro make new, multi-decade lows vs the Buck - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Apple Employees Form Resistance Against Company's Return-To-Office Plans.
• As Markets Plunge Here Are The 6 Things That Matter, According To Goldman's Trading Desk.
• "Spend Now, Deal With The Consequences Later" Is The Worst Policy.
• Fauci Stepping Down In December.

Newsmax:   

• Bipartisan 'Gang of 8' Requests Access to Docs Seized in Raid.
  
• Texas Rep. Harrison: GOP-led House Will Demand Fauci Testify in '23.
• Dick Morris: Trump Kicking Up McConnell Leadership Challenge.
• Missouri AG: Fauci 'Cleared His Calendar' for GOP in '23.
• Grover Norquist: Inflation Act Continuation of Biden Lies.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Biden to Return to White House Wednesday for DNC Event, Then Leave For ANOTHER Delaware Vacation.
• BREAKING: President Trump Files a Motion in Florida “Regarding the Unnecessary, Unwarranted, and unAmerican Break-In By Dozens of FBI Agents, and Others”.
• RNC Posts 7-Minute Video of Joe Biden’s Racist Comments Over the Years.
• World Economic Forum Recommends Humans Become Cyborgs, Implant Brain Chips: There Are ‘Solid, Rational’ Reasons For Children To Be Microchipped.
• Twitter Commits Blatant Election Interference — Takes Down GOP Candidate Dr. Drew Montez Clark’s Account ONE DAY BEFORE ELECTION.
• More Gaslighting: Joe Biden Is Taking Credit for President Trump’s Over-the-Counter Hearing Aid Legislation.
• Facebook Joins Twitter and Announces Its Plans to Influence 2022 Midterm Elections.
• While New York Burns, Migrants Get Free Phones, Food, Supplies and Healthcare.
• FBI Field Office Chief During Botched Whitmer Plot Was Moved to the District That Covers Mar-a-Lago.
  

The Epoch Times:

• China’s Housing Crisis: The Pain Will Persist Until Beijing Acts.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 857,343 Reports(+5,974 from prior week) Through August 12th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 146.0 +9.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 79.0 +5.5 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.61 -.02%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 41.68 -.07%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.28 -4.0 basis points
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.5 -1.24%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.26%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.33%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (DKS)3.56
• (SJM)/1.27
• (JD)/2.76
• (M)/.88
• (MDT)/1.12
  

After the Close:

• (AAP)/3.75
• (INTU)/.98
• (LZB)/.67
• (JWN)/.80
• (TOL)/2.29
• (URBN)/.70
  

Economic Releases

9:45 am EST

• S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for Aug. is estimated to fall to 51.8 versus 52.2 in July.
• S&P Global US Services PMI for Aug. is estimated to rise to 49.8 versus 47.3 in July.

10:00 am EST

• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for Aug. is estimated to fall to -4.0 versus 0.0 in July.
• New Home Sales for July is estimated to fall to 575K versus 590K in June.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (TSLA) 3-for-1
• (NDAQ) 3-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PMI report, US weekly retail sales reports, 2Y T-Note auction and the Raymond James Industrials Conference could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling Substantially into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Fed "Behind the Curve" Worries, Escalating European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Consumer Discretionary/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 23.9 +16.0%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.18% +78.4%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 41.5 -2.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.45 -.67%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.1 -.25%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 46.0 +5.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 96.0 +9.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.10 +6.8%

• NYSE Arms .85 -8.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 83.63 +3.8%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 400.59 +.15%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 337.0 +6.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 117.82 +6.6%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 233.0 basis points +6.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 144.29 +5.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 337.28 +4.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.62 -.19%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 9,588.9 n/a
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 36.5 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 31.25 basis points -2.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.0 basis points -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  139.0 +7.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 47.84 -.50%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .92 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.59 -.43%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.71% +7.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -31.75 basis points (2s/10s) -3.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 101.10 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 280.24 euros/megawatt-hour +14.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -9.8 +6.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -49.9 +1.5 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 27.5 -2.9 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 236.68 +.04:  Growth Rate +15.6% unch., P/E 17.5 -.4 point
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +1.62% unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.32 -9.0 basis points
  

• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.68 -4.0 basis points: 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.57 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for November 2nd FOMC meeting: 48.2%(-1.9 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. Highest target rate probability for December 14th meeting: 47.2%(+2.1 percentage points) chance of 3.50%-3.75%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 196 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 11.3%(-.4 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -7/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -76.6%(-2.8 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -314 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -61 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -41 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to Market Neutral
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -2.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gambling -4.0% 2) Retail -3.4% 3) Semis -3.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• NDSN, ITCI, HAIN, PTY, ESTE, DOV, DX, DASH, OXY, PCTY, CERT, RCM, SITM, EXAS, IR, SG, EEFT, STEM, RCL, INTC, IAC, RUN, ASTS, PARA, BWA, F, WBD, BE, FAZE, XPO, FRPT, LPSN, KAR, W, BILL, TREE, MNTK, LMND, BMBL, LYFT, ASAN, SKYT and AMC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AX 2) DKS 3) LQD 4) JETS 5) PANW
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BBBY 2) CVNA 3) COUP 4) WEBR 5) NFLX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -1.8%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Shipping +.9% 2) Pharma -.4% 3) Agriculture -.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SGFY, PRVA, ENVX, AXSM, CECE, CPRX and ARLP
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CLAR 2) AEP 3) RLMD 4) TCRT 5) AVYA

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SGFY 2) CANO 3) NHWK 4) COSM 5) OSH
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -13.2% Below 100-Day Average 
• 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
• 17.0% of Issues Advancing, 79.4% Declining
• 12 New 52-Week Highs, 69 New Lows
• 36.0% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.1% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 42.1 +1.2%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,838.02 -.41%
  
• Vix 23.2 +12.4%
• Total Put/Call 1.08 +4.9%
• TRIN/Arms .65 -30.1%