Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 3,988.4 +2.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 34,248.0 +1.77%

• NASDAQ 11,041.30 +4.44%

• Russell 2000 1,882.84 +5.1%

• S&P 500 High Beta 68.46 +5.6%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 148.53 +14.9%

• Wilshire 5000 40,174.88 +2.78%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,245.61 +3.6%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,559.60 +1.7%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 778.44 -1.8%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,025.59 +3.7%
  

• NYSE Technology 2,800.67 +5.6%

• Transports 14,327.4 +3.3%

• Utilities 990.53 +.91%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 83.07 +1.8%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 41.1 +3.0%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,460.49 +.21%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 924.26 -.31%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 457,366 +2.4%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 260 +305
  

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -32.1 +8.1%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 227,607 -8.1%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,459,936 +3.3%

• Total Put/Call .88 -15.4%

• OEX Put/Call .93 -4.6%

• ISE Sentiment 109.0 -6.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms 1.11 +21.7% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 57.3 +4.8%
• Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 2.32 +7.0 basis points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 18.1 -14.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.04% -44.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 35.8 -14.1%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 11.0 +2.5%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.6 -.75%

• Smart Money Flow Index 14,560.0 +2.9%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  45.3 +6.5
  

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.805 Trillion -.18%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$11.425 Million

• AAII % Bulls 24.0 +17.1%

• AAII % Bears 39.9 -5.0%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 273.77 +3.38%

• Crude Oil 79.42 +7.7%

• Reformulated Gasoline 250.39 +10.9%

• Natural Gas 3.52 -6.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 64.81 euros/megawatt-hour -6.1%
  

• Heating Oil 326.50 +8.4% 
• Newcastle Coal 335.0 (1,000/metric ton) -9.95%
  

• Gold 1,917.56 +2.7%
• Silver 24.25 +1.7%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 476.5 +6.7%

• Copper 421.0 +7.1%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 418.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%

• China Iron Ore Spot 122.40 USD/Metric Tonne +4.5%

• Lumber  434.0 +16.8%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,519.79 +.98%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 442.5.0 USD/Short Ton -8.8%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +4.07% +31.0 basis points
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -7.5% -.2 percentage point
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 65.0% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index .87 -41.2%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 255.4 +62.9%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 229.08 -.82:  Growth Rate +10.9% -.4 percentage point, P/E 17.3 +.4

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -6.1 +1.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 80.3 +1.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -16.5 +5.5 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change, 94.2%(+18.5 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike and 5.8%(-18.5 percentage points) chance of +50.0 basis point hike on 2/1 to 4.75-5.0%
  

• US Dollar Index 102.21 -1.6%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,694.53 +1.5%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 19,294.9 +13.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 143.50 -1.48%
  

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) -72.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.49% -9.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.472 Trillion +.01%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 31.17 +19.1%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 158.89 -4.7%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 185.0 -17.0 basis points
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 24.32 -15.0%
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 54.03 -13.7%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 241.84 -3.8%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 45.10 -1.95%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 44.03 -8.0%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.75 -.5%

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +6.8% +10.0 basis points
  
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +7.7% -100.0 basis points
  
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +10.4% -30.0 basis points
  
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.45% -7.0 basis points: CPI YoY +6.31% -33.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21% unch.

• TED Spread 24.0 +1.0 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 27.0 -2.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.75 +.25 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 71.16 -5.2%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 250 -13.0% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 335.0 +8.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 88.15 -2.9%
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 380.25 -13.3%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 227.30 -.91%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 131.0 -5.0 basis points
  
• Aggregate US CMBS Average OAS 1.14 -1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .78 -1.0 basis point

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 0.0 unch.
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,304.1 +1.8%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 212,500 -.82%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.1% -10.0 basis points
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 32.8 +53.3%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.31% -32.0 basis points
  

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 186,700 +1.19%

• Weekly Retail Sales +5.30% -250.0 basis points
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 -4.1% -2.2 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $176.0M -28.6%
  

• Nationwide Gas $3.29/gallon unch.

• Baltic Dry Index 976.0 -13.6%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,201.5 -4.3%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 37.5 -6.3%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 64.2 +10.8%

• Rail Freight Carloads 203,527 +9.7%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,182,659 +14.5%
• US Covid-19:  126 infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 7.2%(+.4 percentage point) of peak on 1/14/22(1,740) +7/100K people from prior report
  
• US Covid-19:  New patient hospital admissions per 100K -73.1%(-3.4 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22-1/15/22
  

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +5.6%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value +1.4%

Leading Sectors

• Alt Energy +14.2%

• Airlines +10.2%
• Oil Service +6.5%
  

• Internet +6.4%

• Steel +6.3%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Medical Equipment +.2%
  

• Insurance unch.
  

• Foods -1.4%

• Pharma -2.0%
  

• Computer Hardware -2.5%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (8)

• NATI, VYGR, AEHR, RLAY, NVAX, COIN, SAGE and RVMD
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (4)

• LOGI, LMT, WMG and NOC
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Earnings Optimism, US Soft-Landing Hopes, Short-Covering, Metals & Mining/Gambling Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.2 -3.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.04%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 57.2 +.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 143.6 -1.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.6 -.9%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 35.7 -1.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 109.0 +7.0
  

• Total Put/Call .88 -9.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.06 -9.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.7 -.49%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 350.05 -2.11%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 335.0 -6.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.3 +2.2% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 380.3 -2.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 184.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 107.4 -1.9%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 227.05 +.66%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.79 -.57%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 27.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 24.0 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.75 -1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  130.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 114.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .78 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.5 unch.
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.59% +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 122.3 USD/Metric Tonne -2.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 64.8 euros/megawatt-hour -3.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -6.1 +3.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 80.3 +2.5 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -16.5 +.3 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 229.08 +.04:  Growth Rate +10.9% unch., P/E 17.4 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .19 +10.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -72.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +4.07% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.45% unch.: CPI YoY +6.31% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.20 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 22nd FOMC meeting: 78.9%(+2.3 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for May 3rd meeting: 53.6%(-1.7 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 126 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 7.2%(-.8 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -14/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -73.1%(-.9 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -334 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +115 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +93 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/commodity/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +4.3% Above 100-Day Average 
• 10 Sectors Declining, 1 Sector Rising
• 47.1% of Issues Advancing, 49.0% Declining
• 43 New 52-Week Highs, 2 New Lows
• 51.4%(-1.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 65.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 56.6 -.3%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,110.1 +.25%
  
• Vix 18.3 -3.0%
• Total Put/Call .94 -3.1%
• TRIN/Arms .98 -16.2%
  

Friday Watch

Twitter: 

• @CheddarFlow - Services inflation continues to accelerate, despite goods inflation falling. (graph)
• @mtaibbi - 1.THREAD: Twitter Files #14 THE RUSSIAGATE LIES One: The Fake Tale of Russian Bots and the #ReleaseTheMemo Hashtag.
• @RWMaloneMD - mRNA Vaccines in Livestock and Companion Animals are here now. The current (public) receipts are included in this essay, and more are on the way Substack at RWMaloneMD. Please share with livestock farmers and any who consume animal products.
• @kylenabecker - If you lie to the public, you will see a declining lack of confidence in your product. That proved to be no different for the Covid-19 "vaccines.".
• @VigilantFox - The FDA Approved Remdesivir Based on a Trial in Which 3 out of 53 Children Died The trial was conducted by Gilead, the developer of remdesivir. There was no control group. Mortality rate of children against COVID - < 0.005%. Mortality rate of children with remdesivir - 5.66%. (video) Rheumatologist Dr. Robert Jackson reports that he has seen a less than 5% adverse reaction rate from traditional vaccines in the past, but now with the COVID vaccine, that adverse reaction rate has jumped to 40%, with many of those clients having long-lasting effects. (video) Critical: WHO to Finalize Proposed IHR Amendments This Week in Secret IHRRC Meeting. Proposed amendments would: • Turn WHO into a legally-binding body • Expand the WHO's capacity to censor speech • Give WHO authority to require medical exams • More
• @TheChiefNerd - Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel Announces New mRNA Shot to Treat Heart Failure Patients. “We are now in a super exciting program where we inject mRNA in people's heart after a heart attack to grow back new blood vessels and re-vascularize the heart". (video)
• @CitizenFreePress - McCarthy: "One of the greatest threats we have to this nation is our debt." (video)
• @loffredojermy - Exclusive list of every U.S. politician and official attending Davos next week.
• @aginnt - Fauci - “Vaxx concerns are misinformation, lies, conspiracy theories, and horrible.” Pfizer - “Yes. There is an issue…”. (video)
  
• @_BarringtonII - Go see what your child is fed for lunch at public schools. The go look at the ingredients of fast food. Then ask yourselves how many times do you cook meals per week? Had dinner as a family? And the cure they say is more drugs or surgery. We are pitiful.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 107.5 -3.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 53.75 -.75 basis point. 
• China Iron Ore Spot 124.4 USD/Metric Tonne +1.9%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.55 +.07%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  57.1 +.4%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .11 +2.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.3 +.23%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.05%.

• S&P 500 futures -.19%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.39%.  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ALLY)/1.01
• (ERIC)/2.40
• (HBAN)/.40
• (RF)/.65
• (SLB)/.68
• (STT)/1.95
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Import Price Index MoM for Dec. is estimated to fall -.9% versus a -.6% decline in Nov.
• The Import Price Index ex Petrol MoM for Dec. is estimated to fall -.3% versus a -.3% decline in Nov.
• The Import Price Index YoY for Dec. is estimated to rise +2.2% versus a +2.7% gain in Nov.
• The Export Price Index MoM for Dec. is estimated to fall -.7% versus a -.3% decline in Nov.
• The Export Price Index YoY for Dec. is estimated to rise +7.3% versus a +6.3% gain in Nov.

10:00 am EST

• The Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for January is estimated to rise to 60.5 versus 59.7 in Dec.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Harker speaking and the UK Industrial Production report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Modestly Higher on Diminished Fed Rate-Hike Odds, US Economic Soft-Landing Hopes, Short-Covering, Commodity/Airline Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.1 -9.3%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.47%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 56.5 +.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 145.5 -1.5%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.7 -.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 36.5 -6.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 114.0 +15.0
  

• Total Put/Call .96 unch.

• NYSE Arms 1.01 -24.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.0 -2.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 359.69 -.83%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 341.0 -11.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 86.48 -2.4% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 388.66 -5.7%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 184.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 109.4 -3.43%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 225.67 -.68%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 28.0 -.09%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 29.0 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 23.5 basis points +11.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  128.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 115.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .79 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.5 +.48%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.57% -10.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 122.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 68.0 euros/megawatt-hour +4.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -9.7 +2.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 78.8 -.7 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -16.8 +7.1 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 229.04 -.26:  Growth Rate +10.9% -.1 percentage point, P/E 17.4 +.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .10 +1.0 basis point
  
• Yield Curve -70.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +4.07% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.45% -7.0 basis points: CPI YoY +6.31% -33.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 22nd FOMC meeting: 80.2%(+14.3 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for May 3rd meeting: 57.9%(+10.3 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 140 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 8.0%(+0.0 percentage points) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -72.2%(-.2 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -270 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +115 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +77 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/commodity sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long