Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -15.7% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.4 +.2
  
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 56.4% of Issues Advancing, 40.6% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.10 -14.7%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$77.3M
  
• 156 New 52-Week Highs, 25 New Lows
• 59.3% (+.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 67.0 +2.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 69.3 +.2%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 141.4 +.4%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,129.7 -.07%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 70.0 (Greed) unch.
  
• 1-Day Vix 16.9 +12.9%
  
• Vix 13.9 +.7%
  
• Total Put/Call .77 -25.2%

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• Skeptics Scour Chinese Earnings for Return to Conviction Call.
• AI Hype Hurts Emerging Markets, BTG Billionaire Esteves Says.
• Asia Stocks Echo US Rally With Eyes on Fed Meet. 
• Currie Says Oil Will Break Above Consensus View on Fed Cuts.
• Oil Steadies as Focus Shifts to US Stockpiles and Fed’s Decision.
• Fed to Give Fresh Clues on Path of Rate Cuts.
• The Fed Has a Lot of Questions to Answer About Its Balance Sheet.
• What Happens If Trump Can’t Post His $454 Million Bond.
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Asia.
• UnitedHealth, Mount Sinai Reach Deal to Preserve Access to NY Doctors.

Zero Hedge:

• There Goes The Fed's Inflation Target: Goldman Sees Terminal Rate 100bps Higher At 3.5%.
• In Blow To Biden, Supreme Court Allows Texas To Start Arresting And Deporting Illegal Aliens.
• Young People Aren't Nearly Angry Enough About Government Debt.
• It’s Time For GOP To Unite Behind Trump.
• Bill Gates-Backed Company Seeks To Deploy Small Modular Nuclear Reactors In U.S.
• Trump Sues ABC News, Host George Stephanopoulos For Defamation.
• Colombian Drug Lord Arrested After Operating Out Of Texas Migrant Shelter.
• Billionaire Investor To Back Donald Trump 2024.
• Risk Rush: Equities Blaze as Cash Crumbles and Oil Ignites.
• "It's Enraging": NYC Homeowner Arrested For Changing Locks After Squatters Take Over.
• US stocks reversed early weakness and the S&P 500 posted a fresh record close - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• "That's Joe Biden?" Biden Family Associate Confirms Joe & Family Used Email-Aliases During Vice Presidency.
• Boycott Slams Planet Fitness Shares As Americans Fight Back Against Wokeism.
• RNC Files Election Integrity Lawsuit Against Nevada Secretary Of State.
• WTI Slips After Small Crude Draw But Pump-Prices Hit 5-Month Highs.
• NVDA and stocks ultimately firmer; bonds gain on BoJ, RBA, & Canada inflation - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Why Is The West Suddenly Revealing Its Troop Presence In Ukraine?
• Biden Privately Assured Netanyahu He's Not Trying To Push Him Out.
• US Aims To Restock Strategic Oil Reserves By Year-End.
• NVDA Fails To Impress, Bitcoin Battered, But Bonds & Black Gold Bid Ahead Of Fed.

Wall Street Journal:

• The Dilemma Impeding an Israel-Hamas Cease-Fire.
• Supreme Court Won’t Block Texas From Deporting Immigrants.
• Realtors Reckon With a Seismic Shift in How They Get Paid.
• Governments Across the U.S. Are Handing Residents Cash—No Strings Attached.
• The Fed Is Playing a Waiting Game on Rate Cuts. The Rules Are Starting to Change.
• U.S. No Longer Ranks Among World’s 20 Happiest Countries.
• Chipotle Board Approves 50-for-1 Stock Split.

CNBC.com:

• Nvidia shares close up after company unveils latest AI chips.
• Here’s everything to expect from the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting Wednesday.
• MicroStrategy, largest corporate holder of bitcoin, drops as much as 18% as cryptocurrency falls.
• Banks are in limbo without a crucial lifeline. Here’s where cracks may appear next.

Reuters:

• Texas schools fund pulls $8.5 billion from BlackRock over ESG investing.

MarketWatch.com: 

• Nvidia’s stock gets its ‘Taylor Swift’ moment, and the bulls are cheering.  
• Negative-interest-rate era is over. Was it the ‘dumbest idea’ in economic history? 
• Bitcoin could ‘easily’ fall under $60,000 if decline continues. Here’s why it’s under pressure.

Newsmax:

• Trump Vows US Will Stay in NATO If European Partners Pay Their Share.

Fox News: 

• Dem ignites fury with comment about migrant who allegedly sexually assaulted disabled girl.
• Liberal host confronts Dem who declared election 'rigged' after blowout loss.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Michigan Lawyer Stefanie Lambert Arrested by US Marshals in DC Following Court Appearance — After Submitting “Evidence of Numerous Crimes” Including Internal Emails from Dominion Voting Systems to Law Enforcement.
• Woman Arrested Following a Squatter Standoff in Her Million-Dollar Family Residence in Queens, New York (VIDEO).
• Obama-Appointed Judge Rules Illegal Immigrants Can Carry Guns in the U.S.
• If the Left Hates the Term “Bloodbath” So Much, Why Do They Use it So Often? (Compilation Video).
• It’s Time for GOP To Unite Behind Trump.
• BREAKING: In Major Blow to Biden Regime, Supreme Court Allows Texas to Enforce Immigration Law That Gives Police Power to Arrest Illegals.
• Fallout from Oscar Winner’s Speech Gets Even Worse as Hundreds of Hollywood Stars Sign Open Letter.
• ‘The World Knows That I Didn’t Take the Vaccine’: Brazil’s Bolsonaro, Relentlessly Targeted by Socialist Lula, Is Indicted for Allegedly Falsifying His Vaxx Records.
• BATTLEFIELD BRAIN: New Study on Victims of ‘Havana Syndrome’ Finds No Signs of Brain Injury, but Identifies ‘Real Symptoms’ That Are ‘Profound’ and ‘Disabling’.
• Fox News Anchor Cuts Away From Peter Navarro’s Speech Outside of Prison to do a ‘Fact Check’ (VIDEO).
• WATCH AND SHARE: Elon Musk Posts DEVASTATING Ad by Western Lensman Exposing Migrant Invasion, Democratic Plan For One Party Rule.
• Sharika Soal: Democrats Say Fighting Racism Will Solve Our Problems But It’s A Distraction From Loss Of Freedom.
• Gen Z No Father, No Friends, No Religion, Take Drugs and Therapy to Cope.
• Black Couple Who Supported Obama Shocked CBS Reporter on Who They’re Going to Vote for in 2024 Presidential Election.
• Trump Files Lawsuit Against ABC and George Stephanopoulos for Calling Him a Rapist During Interview With Nancy Mace (VIDEO).
• Barry County Sheriff Sends Evidence to Rep. Jim Jordan Alleging Foreign Interference in Voting Machines Across the State During 2020 Election — Demands an Immediate Review and Investigation.
• Supreme Court Declines to Consider Case of Indiana Couple Who Lost Custody of ‘Transgender’ Teen Son for Refusing to Use Female Pronouns.
• Joe Rogan Rips ‘Banana Republic’ Indictments of Trump: ‘Looks Like You’re Trying to Prosecute Your Political Opponents’ (VIDEO).
• City of Minneapolis Experiencing Shortage of Law Enforcement Officers and Struggling to Recruit New Ones.

The Epoch Times:

• CCP Recognition of Taliban Is a Global Security Threat.
• Hong Kong Passes New National Security Law Amid International Criticism.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,007,636 Reports(+4,460 from prior report) Through February 23rd, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 106.75 (new series).

• China Sovereign CDS 65.75 -1.75 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 106.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.7 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 69.2 +.04%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.1 +.9%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.24%

• S&P 500 futures -.07%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.07%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Nvidia AI Conference, Technical Buying, Energy/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.0 -2.0%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .87 +163.6%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 68.6 -2.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 177.8 +1.1%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.2 +.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 14.3 +5.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 127.0 -13.0
  

• Total Put/Call 1.02 +14.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.76 +93.4%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$39.3M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.5 -1.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 284.68 -.61%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 264 +9
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.0 -1.0% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 179.4 +.11%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 125.0 basis points +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.5 +.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 165.75 +.18%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 114.9 +.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 +.11%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -9.75 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 6.5 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 +.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 148.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 809.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 61.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.7 -.18%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.37% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 106.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 28.9 euros/megawatt-hour +.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.0 +2.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 54.3 +4.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.5 +.4 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 500 reporting) +16.5% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 249.09 +.41:  Growth Rate +11.6% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.7 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.83% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +55.2% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 310.17 -6.81: Growth Rate +29.1% -2.8 percentage points, P/E 31.6 +.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.16 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.08 -4.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -39.5 basis points (2s/10s) +.75 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.1% -20.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 51.7% -.2 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.78% unch.: CPI YoY +3.37% +4.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 1st FOMC meeting: 92.8%(+.6 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 12th meeting: 55.4%(+4.6 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -139 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +15 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +270 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BNTX)/2.37
• (GIS)/1.05
• (JKS)/18.16
• (OLLI)/1.16
• (SIG)/6.37
  

After the Close: 

• (BB)/-.04
• (CHWY)/-.04
• (FIVE)/3.78
• (GES)/1.56
• (KBH)/1.57
• (MU)/-.25
• (SCS)/.21
• (WOR)/.69
  

Economic Releases

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -732,800 barrels versus a -1,536,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -2,336,400 barrels versus a -5,662,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -269,400 barrels versus an +888,000 barrel gain prior. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.7% versus a +1.9% gain prior.
  

2:00 pm EST

• The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark Fed Funds Rate at 5.25-5.5%.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The FOMC press conference, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, BofA Industrials Conference, Citi Consumer Conference, (SNPS) investor day, (BF/B) investor day, (AVGO) investor meeting and the KeyBanc Life Sciences/MedTech Forum could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -4.1% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 19.2 -.9
  
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 68.1% of Issues Advancing, 29.0% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.44 +58.2%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$27.2M
  
• 126 New 52-Week Highs, 31 New Lows
• 58.6% (+1.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 65.0 +1.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 68.9 -1.5%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 141.0 +.1%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,068.0 -.2%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 70.0 (Greed) -4.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 11.8 -4.8%
  
• Vix 14.0 -2.0%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.05 +18.0%

Tuesday Watch

X:

• @elonmusk 

• With rare exception, almost the entire legacy media industry is a politically far left cheering squad.

• @libsoftiktok
  

• BREAKING: Drag Queen 'Shangela' who was invited by Kamala Harris to the White House to celebrate Pride Month was just accused of multiple s*xual ass*ults.

• @RealCandaceO

• Just flagging this because I made a prediction that our government is intentionally allowing terrorists in because they want a terrorist attack on U.S soil so that they can convince the public to consent to an overseas war. 9/11 vibes. (pic)
  

• @stkirsch

• If you are thinking of getting another Covid shot, the CDC should recommend that you watch this video before you get the shot: (video)

• @wideawake_media

• Emeritus Professor of Physics at Princeton University, William Happer: "More CO2 is good for the world... It's absurd to be trying to reduce CO2". "We're in a CO2 famine now... It's unbelievable that they've managed to turn this beneficial gas, a part of life, into a threat." (video)
• A glimpse into the kind of world digital ID facilitates. Chinese police scan the faces of customers at a restaurant, which are then automatically run through a government database, to locate and arrest anyone considered an "enemy of the state". Without China's compulsory digital ID system, which holds the biometric information of every Chinese citizen, this wouldn't be possible. (video)
• RFK Jr. explains how Bill Gates uses "philanthropy" as a smokescreen for reaping personal profits: "He gets tax deductions for giving money to the WHO, he gains control of the WHO. The WHO finances the health ministries in virtually every country in Africa, so he can say, as a condition of getting that money—this is what the WHO does—you have to show that you vaccinated a certain percentage of your population. (video)
• "It is a complete dictatorial power grab." Former U.S. congresswoman, Michele Bachmann: Bill Gates—through the WHO Pandemic Agreement—is attempting "the greatest grab of power in 5000 years of recorded human history". "Once the deed is done next May, if in fact it does get done, it will change our lives completely going forward." (video)

• @ImMeme0

• A truth bomb explodes as a man reveals who's truly to blame for the migrant crisis in Chicago! (video)

• @VigilantFox

• Joe Rogan Says We’re Empowering ‘EVIL’ With Terms Like ‘Minor-Attracted Persons’. He’s right, you know. (video)
  

• @WallStreetApes 

• NEW: Hawaii Bill HB2079 Legalizes Kidnapping Children Across State Lines. Directly From Hawaii Free Press “HB2079 Would Legalize Child Kidnapping for Sex Change”. The Bill “Also forbids the entire state of Hawaii, including the governor, from disclosing records or extraditing any kidnapper charged in another state so long as the kidnapper alleges that the purpose of taking the child was to provide access to gender affirming care”. (video)
• This Is Missouri Farmer & Cattle Rancher Greg Judy. He Spreads The Message American’s Are Getting Diseases Because We’re Being Poisoned By Big Food.
• Things Like #bloodbath & Civil War Are Trending On X After The Mainstream Media & All Their Propagandists Ran With Out Of Context Donald Trump Quote. The reason the media is allowed to cause chaos like this is because of Barack Obama. Everyone needs to keep sharing this until the Smith–Mundt Act decision is reversed. (video)
  

• @BGatesIsaPsycho 

• Irish Farmer Explains. Listen to this Irish Farmer explain how Farming is clearly under attack by tyrannical Globalist sell out Governments. “Nobody (other industry) has been asked to cut their Co2 emissions”. Same across all of Europe, if you don’t know why you’re not paying attention. (video)

• @ChuckCallesto
  

• FLASHBACK: Body cam footage emerges from inside the senate chamber CHALLENGING THE NARRATIVE created by the J6 committee. (video)

• @Raymond82310289

• The EU has officially approved the ‘European Digital Identity Wallet. Although they say it’ll be voluntary - just like they said the digital vaccine passports would be voluntary - this system is the foundation for a Chinese social credit style digital surveillance state. (video)

• @MJTruthUltra

• New York is a ticking time bomb… After 30 Days of Staying in Shelters, Thousands of only Illegal Migrant Men will be Kicked out on the Streets How long until things go south? (video)
• Tyson Foods HR Leader Doubles Down after firing Americans and says they’d like to “employ another 42,000 if we could find them.” “They’re very, very, loyal”… — Tyson HR Leader, Garrett Dolan.
  

• @EmeraldRobinson

• Obama is actually POTUS and Biden is his puppet, and it's obvious to everyone now. (video)

• @TexasLindsay_
  

• Congress is hyper focused on TikTok, but doesn’t seem concerned that Bill Gates & China are buying up American farm land. Why are they not doing anything to stop this? (video)

• @AmericazOutlaw

• SHOCKING VIDEO We’ve always known the media espouses gov’t propaganda, from large networks to local news, but you’ve never seen real confirmation like this Dozens of networks reading the exact same gov’t propaganda script, where they denounce fake news. (video)
  

• @songpinganq

• Chinese parents lining up for miles in front of the door of the ''Social Credit Bureau'', in order to get their official ''Social Credit Rating Report''. The parents need this report to enroll kids into schools —— The higher your rating, the better school your kids can attend. (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,007,636 Reports(+4,460 from prior report) Through February 23rd, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.25 -.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 67.5 -2.0 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 103.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.7 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.5 +.8%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.4 +.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.22%

• S&P 500 futures -.15%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.30%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.