Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +6.9% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.4 -1.0
  
• 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 68.9% of Issues Advancing, 29.0% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.50 +82.9%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$161.0M
  
• 391 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
• 63.4% (+2.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 74.0 +7.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 69.2 -.7%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 143.6 +.9%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,232.9 +.23%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 76.0 (Extreme Greed) +6.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 8.9 -18.5%
  
• Vix 13.0 -.5%
  
• Total Put/Call .95 -3.1%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.5 -3.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 70.0 -1.0 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 106.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.93%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.8 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.5 +1.1%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.5 -.8%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.90%

• S&P 500 futures +.26%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.46%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Rising Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Dollar Weakness, Short-Covering, Transport/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.9 +.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .48 -49.0%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 69.8 +.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 178.8 +.6%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.3 +1.0%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 14.1 +1.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 156.0 +37.0
  

• Total Put/Call .83 -19.4%

• NYSE Arms .99 -23.3%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$102.2M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.2 (new series)
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 285.09 +.21%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 290 +26
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.79 (new series)
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 192.75 (new series)
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 128.0 basis points +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 104.6 (new series)
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 173.2 (new series)
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 122.2 (new series)
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 +.1%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -8.75 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 8.5 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 144.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 803.0 -6.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 61.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.7 +.04%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.39% +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 106.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.26%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 27.7 euros/megawatt-hour -3.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 24.6 -.4 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 53.8 -.5 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 19.3 -1.2 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(6 of 500 reporting) +16.5% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 249.21 +.11:  Growth Rate +11.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.8 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.83% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +55.2% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 310.45 +.28: Growth Rate +29.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.0 +.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.16 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.07 -1.0 basis point
  
• US Yield Curve -34.0 basis points (2s/10s) +5.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.1% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 55.4% +3.7 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.78% unch.: CPI YoY +3.37% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 70.9%(+17.3 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 49.6%(-.1 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +220 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +36 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +343 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my industrial/consumer discretionary/transport/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.2%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Medical Equipment -1.1% 2) Digital Health -.9% 3) Shipping -.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• NDAQ, CELC, HROW, EQIX, ATRC and SHC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ALIT 2) FUSN 3) GETY 4) ASO 5) GIS
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SIG 2) SMCI 3) EQIX 4) EAF 5) HROW
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.3%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +1.3% 2) Social Media +1.0% 3) Alt Energy +.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• DWAC, MODG, BAK, PGY, TRML, CLSK, ROOT, LIVN, SRAD, SPIR, SPR, ANRO, TGI, DESP, ANRO, TKO, QFIN, CXW, SRRK, CDLX, TME, GEO, AVD, VST, HIMS, TGLS, MBLY, SG, FMC, ALTG, ATMU, MIR, PRA, CMG, DLO and GPS
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ALIT 2) FUSN 3) GIS 4) XRT 5) CMG

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CTV 2) MODG 3) BLDE 4) LWAY 5) WULF
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ASO)/2.29
• (ACN)/2.66
• (DRI)/2.62
• (FDS)/3.90
• (SCVL)/.59
• (TITN)/1.02
• (WGO)/.85
  

After the Close: 

• (AIR)/.84
• (FDX)/3.44
• (LULU)/5.00
• (NKE)/.75
• (WS)/.84
• (CMC)/.76
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Current Account Balance for 4Q is estimated to widen to -$209.0B versus -$200.3B in 3Q.
• The Philly Fed Business Outlook for March is estimated to fall to -2.8 versus 5.2 in Feb.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 213K versus 209K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1820K versus 1811K prior.
  

9:45 am EST

• S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for March is estimated to fall to 51.8 versus 52.2 in Feb.
• S&P Global US Services PMI for March is estimated to fall to 52.0 versus 52.3 in Feb.
• S&P Global US Composite PMI for March is estimated to fall to 52.2 versus 52.5 in Feb.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for Feb. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -.4% decline in Jan.
• Existing Home Sales for Feb. is estimated to fall to 3.95M versus 4.0M in Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barr speaking, Fed's balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (KEYS) annual meeting, (CIEN) annual meeting and the (AJG) investor meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST