Monday, April 01, 2024

Tuesday Watch

X:

  • @wideawake_media
  • @CitizenFreePres
  • @VigilantFox
  • @WallStreetApes 
  • @SteveLovesAmmo
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho 
  • @EndWokeness
  • @wendyp4545
  • @amuse
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.25 -.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 71.0 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.6 -.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 68.2 +1.8%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.5 +.32%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.04%
  • S&P 500 futures -.12%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.19%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Surging Long-Term Rates, Dollar Strength, Technical Selling, Regional Bank/Telecom Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.0 +7.5%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .81 +146.1%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 66.7 -1.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 176.8 -.3%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.5 +.8%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 14.2 +7.4% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 137.0 +11.0
  • Total Put/Call .92 -24.6%
  • NYSE Arms .79 unch.
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$194.9M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.1 +1.2%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 279.4 -.38%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 284 -2
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.4 +.03%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 186.2 +.42%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 138.0 basis points +6.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.2 -.26%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 168.4 -.15%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 117.7 -.01%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.6 -.06%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -8.75 basis points -1.0 basis point
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 5.0 basis points -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 -.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 142.0 +6.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 788.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 61.0 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.6 +.01%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.37% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.7 USD/Metric Tonne +1.4%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 27.4 euros/megawatt-hour unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 39.0 +8.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 37.0 -4.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 22.8 +4.1 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +43.6% -4.1 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 250.50 +.46:  Growth Rate +12.3% +.3 percentage point, P/E 20.9 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.86% +2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 312.12 +.48: Growth Rate +29.9% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.1 unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.08 -3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.0 -5.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -38.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.8% +70.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 55.9% -.8 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.67% -11.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.41% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 +4.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 56.9%(+1.7 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 48.1%(+3.5 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +203 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +9 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +283 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower:  On losses in my consumer discretionary/financial/industrial/transport sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -1.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Regional Banks -1.9% 2) Telecom -1.6% 3) Digital Health -1.6%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • BNS, NAMS, TH, MODV, TM, CSAN, DOCS, INO, ONB, OLLI, ANAB, IMNM, GME, WSC, NCNO, IDCC, TBBB, WBA, DJT and IRON
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) ITB 2) ANVS 3) ARQT 4) MTTR 5) EH
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) EBIXQ 2) TRVN 3) NOVA 4) DOCS 5) BLUE
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) SOXX 2) XLV 3) XLE 4) PTF 5) XLI

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gambling +1.4% 2) Computer Hardware +1.3% 3) Oil Service +1.2%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • SMXT, VYGR, GCT, ZIMV, SGML, TCOM, CCJ, CC, SMTC, MU, LPG, WDC, AVBP, GES, MMM, MP, MUX, WYNN, NNOX, DELL, BOOT, VST, TSM, SA, ATAT, DRQ, EAT and HRTG
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) MCHI 2) GLYC 3) EVLV 4) GES 5) ITB
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) MU 2) SMTC 3) DOMO 4) JFBR 5) GES
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLC 2) VGT 3) FENY 4) XME 5)FCOM
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (PAYX)/1.37
After the Close: 
  • (CALM)/2.45
  • (PLAY)/1.10
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • JOLTS Job Openings for Feb. is estimated to fall to 8770K versus 8863K in Jan. 
  • Factory Orders for Feb. is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a -3.6% decline in Jan.
  • Final Durable Goods readings for Feb.

Afternoon

  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales for March is estimated to rise to 15.9M versus 15.81M in Feb.

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Mester speaking, Fed's Daly speaking, weekly US retail sales reports, API weekly crude oil stock report, JPMorgan Retail Round Up Conference, (INTC) business udpate and the (VSH) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -14.6% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.6 -.1
  • 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
  • 31.6% of Issues Advancing, 66.8% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .76 -3.8%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$173.7M
  • 151 New 52-Week Highs, 19 New Lows
  • 64.3% (-1.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 65.0 -6.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 66.9 -.8%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 143.8 +.5%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,854.9 +.2%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 72.0 (Greed) +1.0
  • 1-Day Vix 8.0 -23.2%
  • Vix 14.0 +7.5%
  • Total Put/Call .93 -23.8%