Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (LW)/1.45
• (LNN)/1.56
• (RPM)/.46
• (SMPL)/.38
• (CAG)/.65
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for March.
  

8:30 am EST

• The Trade Deficit for Feb. is estimated to widen to -$67.6B versus -$67.4B in Jan. 
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 214K versus 210K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1811K versus 1819K prior.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Kuger speaking, Fed's Mester speaking, Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Fed's Harker speaking, Fed's Barkin speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow 1Q update, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, JPMorgan Retail Conference and the American Assoc. for Cancer Research Meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -13.0% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.1 +2.1
  
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 57.0% of Issues Advancing, 40.0% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .87 +4.8%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$93.7M
  
• 124 New 52-Week Highs, 31 New Lows
• 62.1% (+1.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 62.0 +5.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 68.2 +.7%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 143.7 +.5%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,932.4 +.4%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 64.0 (Greed) +5.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 8.3 -18.3%
  
• Vix 14.4 -1.6%
  
• Total Put/Call .94 +.1%

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Tsunami Warning Issued for Japan’s Okinawa After M7.5 Quake.
• Yellen Heads to China This Week to Press Beijing on Overcapacity.
• Ex-Official Who Warned of 2022 Yen Intervention Sounds Alarm.
• Taiwan Dollar Optimism Fades in Options Market as Fed Bets Shift.
• Asian Stocks Slip as Rate Cut Hopes Begin to Fade.
• Oil Rises With Lower US Stockpiles and OPEC+ Meeting to the Fore.
• Traders Ready in Case Stocks Start to Swing.
• 10,000 Migrant Crossings a Day Upend the US Presidential Election.
• Wall Street Seizes Bitcoin Volatility With Leveraged, Short ETFs.
• Bird Flu Spooks Meat, Milk Traders as Virus Hits Dairy Cows.
• Fed Officials Say Three Rate Cuts a Reasonable Baseline for 2024.
• Office Vacancy Rate Nears 20% to Set Fresh Record, Moody’s Says.
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Asia.

Zerohedge:

• The Next AI Trade.
• US Fumes Over IDF Strike On Aid Workers, But Still Refuses 'Conditions' On Military Transfers.
• Bring Back Gold!
• Chinese Illegal Immigrant Arrested After Sneaking Onto Marine Corps Base, Refusing To Leave.
• Another Outlandish Overreach By The CDC.
• Attempted Suicide Rates More Than Double After Gender-Reassignment Surgery: Study.
• Biden Administration Acknowledges "Challenge" With New Truck Emissions Rule.
• Tennessee Lawmakers Pass Bill Targeting mRNA Vaccines In Food.
• Can America's Middle Class Still Afford Homeownership In 2024.
• Shimmering Gold and Roaring Energy.
• US stocks declined as treasures bear-steepened, while Tesla drove the losses in the Nasdaq on poor Q1 deliveries - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Eating The Rich Won't Feed The Beast.
• The Hidden Cost Of The Border Crisis Nobody Tells You About.
• Chicago Public Schools' Sexual Abuse And Misconduct Cases Everyone Should Know About.
• WTI Extends Gains After API Reports Inventory Draws Across The Board.
• Stocks tumble as Treasuries bear steepen and commodities rip - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Climate Alarmists Battle To Censor Film Exposing 'Climate Crisis Scam'.
• Gold Hits Another New Record High But Bonds, Stocks, & Bitcoin Battered On 'Good' News.

CNBC.com:

• Disney versus Nelson Peltz vote hinges on Vanguard, State Street, institutional investors.
• China and Hong Kong stocks lost nearly $5 trillion in 3 years — more than India’s market cap.
• Fed officials still expects rate cuts this year, but not anytime soon.
• U.S. crude oil cracks $85 to hit highest level since October as geopolitical tensions mount.

MarketWatch.com: 

• Boeing’s production woes could be bad news for summer travelers. Here’s which airlines are most affected. 
• Wall Street strategist who called dot-com crash says stocks are in a bubble driven by Fed.
• Intel foundry losses expected to peak this year after hitting $7 billion in 2023.

Fox News: 

• WATCH: Diddy raid surveillance video released as mogul's sons hire notorious mob lawyer.
• Harvard prof urges university to eliminate DEI statements that demand 'leftist conformity'.
• Billionaire says US debt 'is a growing concern that cannot be overlooked'.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Indiana Governor Declares State Of Emergency Ahead of Solar Eclipse Next Week
• Top International Virologist Issues Dire Warning: “Massive, Massive Tsunami of Death Among Highly Vaccinated…is Imminent”
• Breaking: “Campaign Finance Mule” Investigative Reporter/Researcher Peter Bernegger Arrested on Day of Wisconsin Primary – Charged With Rarely Used Crime.
• CDC Issues Alert After Invasive and Deadly Meningococcal Disease Rates Soar in U.S.
• Bill Gates Sponsoring Lessons in How to Cleanse Math of ‘White Supremacy’.
• WATCH LIVE: President Trump Delivers Remarks in Green Bay, Wisconsin.
• FY25 Budget Hinders Three Key US Army Capabilities for Indo-Pacific Region.
• Louisiana Senate Unanimously Passes Bill to Block Control of UN, WHO, and WEF in the State.
• Beyond the Headlines: MSM Disinfo: 60 Minutes Pushes FAKE “Havana Syndrome” Narrative.
• Ship Company Owners Deny Fault in Baltimore Key Bridge Collapse in Latest Filing in Federal Court.
• Hamas Supporters Protest NJ Synagogue Event for Organization That Helps Bury Victims of Terrorism (Video).
• Beyond the Headlines: Border INSANITY: Judge Releases VIOLENT Illegal Aliens Into Country.
• Disgusting: Democrat Massachusetts Governor Plans to House Illegals at Former Veterans’ Shelter.
• RFK Jr. Argues Joe Biden Poses a Greater Threat to Democracy Than Donald Trump During CNN Interview (VIDEO).
• Virginia Trans Legislator Trains County Officials to Covertly Cater to Trans Agenda.
• HAITI HELL: Heavy Gun Battles Rage Near National Palace – Unelected Transition Council Stumbles on Legal Impediments – Canada Training Caribbean Troops for Deployment.
• Fulton County (GA) Elections Board Supervisor Voted Against Certifying 2020 Election Because Signature Verifications Were NOT Performed on 147,000 Ballots! (VIDEO).
• BREAKING: Citizens Groups Suing to Demand Laws Are Enforced Resulting in Honest Elections.

The Epoch Times:

• China’s Overcapacity and EV Dominance Draws Global Concerns.
• Elections Watchdog Uninterested in Probing Alleged Foreign Influence on 2021 Liberal Candidate, Inquiry Hears.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,007,636 Reports(+4,460 from prior report) Through February 23rd, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.5 +1.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 73.25 +2.25 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 103.1 USD/Metric Tonne +1.5%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.7 -.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 69.2 +2.1%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.8 +.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.06%

• S&P 500 futures -.09%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.09%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by financial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Higher Long-Term Rates, Technical Selling, Healthcare/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.7 +7.8%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .51 -37.3%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 66.8 +1.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 177.2 +.15%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.6 +.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 15.4 +10.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 140.0 +3.0
  

• Total Put/Call .94 unch.

• NYSE Arms .53 -44.8%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$210.9M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.9 +1.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 284.4 +1.6%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 260 -24
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.2 +1.1%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 186.4 +.02%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 144.0 basis points +6.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.7 +.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 171.9 +1.6%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 117.5 -.11%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.6 -.08%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -9.0 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 2.5 basis points -2.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 +.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 139.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 784.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 60.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.7 +.4%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.36% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.7 USD/Metric Tonne +1.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 26.2 euros/megawatt-hour-4.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 41.0 +2.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 40.3 +3.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 22.8 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(17 of 500 reporting) +42.1% -1.5 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 250.65 +.15:  Growth Rate +12.3% unch., P/E 20.7 -.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.86% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 312.41 +.29: Growth Rate +30.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 31.7 -.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.12 +4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.71 +71.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -34.0 basis points (2s/10s) +4.75.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.8% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 51.4% -4.5 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.67% unch.: CPI YoY +3.41% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 61.6%(+4.8 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 52.8%(+.8 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -154 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +11 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +270 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my consumer discretionary/financial/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
  

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AYI)/3.17

After the Close: 

• (BB)/-.04
• (LNN)/1.56
• (RPM)/.46
• (CAG)/.65
  

Economic Releases

8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for March is estimated to rise to 150K versus 140K in Feb.
  

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Services Index for March is estimated to rise to 52.8 versus 52.6 in Feb.
• The ISM Services Prices Paid Index for March is estimated to fall to 57.6 versus 58.6 in Feb.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of 9,400 barrels versus a +3,165,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall to -453,200 barrels versus a +1,299,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise to -663,600 barrels versus a -1,185,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise +.34% versus a +.9% gain prior.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell speaking, Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Kugler speaking, Fed's Barr speaking, OPEC meeting, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (SLB) annual meeting, (DIS) annual meeting and the JPMorgan Retail Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -5.0% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.0 -1.6
  
• 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
• 18.9% of Issues Advancing, 79.7% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .58 -39.6%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$290.0M
  
• 64 New 52-Week Highs, 32 New Lows
• 61.8% (-3.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 57.0 -8.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 67.5 +.7%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 142.8 -.32%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,818.4 -.42%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 59.0 (Greed) -13.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 9.1 +12.2%
  
• Vix 15.1 +10.8%
  
• Total Put/Call .92 -2.1%