Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Construction Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.7 +1.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .51 -32.4%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 66.9 +.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 180.7 +.8%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.90 -2.0%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 17.2 -3.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 141.0 +46.0
  

• Total Put/Call 1.36 +44.7%

• NYSE Arms 1.19 -22.2%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$296.3M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.12 -.61%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 252.0 -.49%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 284 +1
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.9 +.28%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 187.3 +.48%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 134.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.21 -2.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 159.0 -3.4%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 130.5 -.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.6 -.1%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -8.5 basis points -1.75 basis points
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 9.25 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 146.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 759.0 -10.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 58.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.7 +.21%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.39% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 119.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.35%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.8 euros/megawatt-hour +4.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.5 -.2 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.0 -.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.3 -.7 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(403 of 500 reporting) +5.1% +.8 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 254.93 -.16:  Growth Rate +14.3% -.1 percentage point, P/E 20.2 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.92% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +37.2% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 325.39 +.81: Growth Rate +35.4% +.3 percentage point, P/E 31.1 +.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.09 +15.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .94 +11.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -34.5 basis points (2s/10s) -3.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +3.3% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 48.0% +3.9 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.50% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 31st FOMC meeting: 68.6%(+3.5 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th meeting: 48.1%(-.7 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +609 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +37 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +180 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/financial/consumer discretionary
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Steel -.6% 2) Foods -.2% 3) Biotech -.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• CGON, IMXI, KRYS, GME, TSN, THS, BOWL, IART and EYPT
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HA 2) TSN 3) GLYC 4) HIMS 5) ZI
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) MMAT 2) IART 3) SAVE 4) LAZR 5) THS
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XOP 2) XLI 3) XLE 4) GDX 5) XLB

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.6%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives +3.6% 2) Education +2.5% 3) Construction +2.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PRFT, MARA, TRUP, TWST, FRPT, GCT, EH, PLTR, TDS, SIMO, BBAR, GGAL, ALXO, BLCO, BMA, AAL, WWW, UPST, W, FN, APTV, GDYN, CAVA, SYM, VGR, ZIM, SIGA, MBUU, DNB, MEG, EAT, CLS, PARA, SGRY, ATGE, PWR, NSSC, ALCC, DKNG, JLL, ETSY, LI, NTGR, DRVN, MTZ, USM, HIMS, AY, CELH, OSCR, FLEX, LOCO, AESI, DUOL, FLUT, RPAY, BROS, BHF, ACHC, LBTYA, UBER, BEP, OLED, BMBL and FUTU
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PLNT 2) TSN 3) SYM 4) TEVA 5) COHR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) PRFT 2) OM 3) BCRX 4) MARA 5) LINC
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XLP 3) XLV 4) KRE 5) XLY
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BLMN)/.74
• (CROX)/2.25
• (DDOG)/.34
• (DUK)/1.38
• (ENR)/.67
• (HSIC)/1.01
• (J)/1.85 
• (PRGO)/.23
• (ROK)/2.15
• (TPX)/.49
• (TDG)/7.42
• (UBS)/.24
• (DIS)/1.10
• (WAT)/2.09
  

After the Close: 

• (ANDE)/.23
• (ANET)/1.74
• (CRUS)/.64
• (CPNG)/.05
• (EA)/1.52
• (LOPE)/2.22
• (IAC)/-1.32
• (IRBT)/-2.01
• (LYFT)/.06
• (MTW)/.18
• (MTCH)/.41
• (MCK)/6.36
• (MYGN)/-.10
• (OXY)/.58
• (RRR)/.58
• (RDFN)/-.58
• (RNG)/.80
• (RGR)/.84
• (TOST)/.05
• (TRIP)/.04
• (WYNN)/1.29
  

Economic Releases

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for March is estimated to rise to $15.0B versus $14.125B in Feb.

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Kashkari speaking, 3Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, (AAPL) iPad event, Assoc. for Research in Vision/Ophthalmology Meeting, (LSTR) annual meeting, (YETI) annual meeting, (OSK) annual meeting, (TREX) annual meeting, (D) annual meeting, (PGR) investor meeting, (GE) annual meeting, (OMC) annual meeting, (BMY) annual meeting, (BAX) annual meeting, (GPS) annual meeting, (NVR) annual meeting, (INTC) annual meeting, (SKYW) annual meeting, (CSCO) investor meeting, Oppenheimer Industrial Growth Conference and the (TROW) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -10.7% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.0 +.5
  
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 76.9% of Issues Advancing, 21.2% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.26 +17.7%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$294.0M
  
• 151 New 52-Week Highs, 16 New Lows
• 59.7% (+2.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 56.0 +7.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 66.2 -.7%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 142.4 +.6%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,171.7 +.12%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 40.0 (Fear) +1
  
• 1-Day Vix 8.91 -15.0%
  
• Vix 13.8 +2.3%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.46 +55.3%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:   

• Truce Talks Shift to Qatar as Hamas Hits Israel Border Crossing. 
• Xi Arrives in Paris to Begin Europe Tour as Trade Tensions Rise.
• Emerging-Market Optimism Dashed by Fed as Currencies, Bonds Sink.
• China’s CICC Demotes Senior Bankers, Cuts Pay to Slash Costs.
• Asian Stocks Rangebound Before China Reopening.
• Oil Steadies After Weekly Slump as Saudi Arabia Raises Prices.
• Treasury Rally Risks Running Into a $125 Billion Brick Wall.
• Zero-Day Options Boom Will Only Grow Even As Some Investors Fear Disaster.
• Five Key Charts to Watch in Global Commodity Markets This Week.
• Buffett Praises Apple After Trimming It, Drops Paramount Stake.

Zero Hedge:

• University Of California Now Discriminates Based On Parental Income, Education.
• "People Will Be Teleporting Between Planets" Before California Finishes High-Speed Rail Project.
• "Economics Works In Mysterious Ways": Is China's Wealth Effect Being Substituted?
• Market Dynamics Have Reversed: CTA Selling Impulse Is Gone, Gamma Has Flipped Short, And Buybacks Are Coming Out Of Blackout: Goldman Prime.
• The Ideological Roots Of The Open Borders Push.
• Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Pritzker Doubles-Down With $827 Million Taxpayer Handout To Troubled EV-Maker Rivian.
• Open The Overton Window.
• Cognitive Decline: Biden Campaign Says They Will Shorten His Speeches.
• US Covert Missile Launcher Touted As Game Changer In Future Taiwan War.
• Biden Boosts Student Dem Leader Warning Of "Dictator Trump" On PBS.
• Change Of S&P Leadership Suggests Bottom Is Near.
• "Nothing Wrong With Being Hamas": Radical Leftist Groups Trained Students Before Nationwide Campus Chaos .
• Watch: Senator Eviscerates Biden Official Over "Dark Money Meetings".
• "Stunning On Multiple Levels": DOJ Admits To Evidence Tampering In Trump Classified Docs Case.
• Trump Leads Biden By 10 Points In Latest Election Poll: Rasmussen Reports.
• Matt Taibbi Uncensored: Finance Nothing More Than A 'Street Scam'.
• US Pushing G-7 To Accept Long-Term $50 Billion Aid Package For Ukraine.
• Which States Have The Highest Minimum Wage In America?
• Are We Destroying The Economy On Purpose?
• Who's Funding University Unrest?
• Trump Develops 'Detailed' Plan On Achieving Ukraine Peace: Telegraph.
• Largest Review On Transgender-Youth Medicine Finds Insufficient Evidence For Medicalization.
• CIA Engaged In "Infinite Race" With China For AI, Other Tech.
• Almost Half Of Health Care Workers Hesitant To Take COVID-19 Boosters: Study.
• David Stockman On The $1.3 Trillion Elephant In The Room.
• Data Centers Hiding In 'Spy Country' Northern Virginia Will Need Reactor's Worth Of Power.
• Europe Scraps Net Zero, Biden Should But Won't, Why?
• Hims & Hers Health Shares Tumble After CEO Says 'Will Hire Anti-Israel Student Protesters' .
• College Fraternities Rise Up Against Marxist Protesters Chanting For 'Socialist Takeover Of America' .
• Scientists Backtrack, Admit Proposed Virus Experiments Could Have Been Done In China.
• Americans Continue To Name Inflation As Top Financial Problem: Gallup.
• 3rd May 2024: Soft NFP boosts stocks and bonds.
• Big Taper, Bad Data, & Buyback Bonanza Sparks Buying Frenzy In Bonds & Stocks.

Wall Street Journal:

• ABC News President Kim Godwin Is Stepping Down.
• Baby Boomer Professors Join Protests, Risking Arrest, Violence.
• Israel Wants to Go Into Rafah. It Could Go Badly.
• Consumers Fed Up With Food Costs Are Ditching Big Brands.
• Arizona Is Booming, but Restless Voters Feel Downbeat About Economy.
• How TikTok Is Wiring Gen Z’s Money Brain.
• Crime and Progressive Lack of Punishment. The failure to impose penalties on bad behavior, on campus and elsewhere, produces much more of it.
• The Rocket Fuel Behind China Shock 2.0: Weak Currency, Deflation.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (THLLY) and (ADBE).

CNBC:

• 25 years in prison to 4 months: Inside the final verdict on a crypto billionaire CEO archrivalry.
• Full recap of Warren Buffett’s comments at the Berkshire annual meeting: ‘I hope I come next year’.
• Warren Buffett says AI scamming will be the next big ‘growth industry’.
• AI could drive a natural gas boom as power companies face surging electricity demand.
• Generative AI will be designing new drugs all on its own in the near future.

MarketWatch.com:

• The bar is creeping higher for second-quarter earnings.  
• Berkshire Hathaway event spotlights Buffett’s successor, but also raises new questions.

Fox News:

• New revelations in classified docs trial put Trump on offense against 'deranged' special counsel.
• Reporter left stunned after speaking with Dem voters about the Trump economy.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• “USA! USA! USA!” – AMAZING! President Trump Arrives at Formula One Miami Grand Prix to Thunderous Applause – Law Enforcement Line Up on Road to Wave at Trump (VIDEO).
• President Trump Calls For Jack Smith to be Arrested After Special Counsel Admits HE LIED TO THE COURT About Classified Docs Seized from Mar-a-Lago.
• “They’re Torturing Us!” – J6 Political Prisoner Jake Lang Sends Out a Plea for Help After 1,200 Days in Prison without a Trial – Horseback Protest Planned for Wednesday.
• HORROR: American Man and Australian Brothers Murdered During Surfing Trip in Mexico, Thieves Dump Their Bodies in 50-Foot Deep Well.
• Biden Regime Cuts Off Ammunition Supplies to Israel as Advisors Panic Over Electoral Threat from Anti-Israel Democrats.
• The Lie of the Century: The Origin of "COVID-19".
• New York Times Admits Trump is Popular With Young Voters, Majority Prefer His Policies.
• WATCH AND SHARE: Google Removes Pro-Trump Ad That Highlights Biden’s Prioritization of Illegals Over US Citizens, $500 a Month to House “Newcomers to America”.
• GENOCIDE JOE? Biden’s Biggest Donors Also Funding Anti-Israel Protests, Analysis Reveals.
• GOP Governor Declares War on Lab-Grown Meat, Signs Law Making Distribution, Sale, Manufacture Illegal.
• Elon Musk Now Fully Awake on Election Integrity, Promotes Non-Profit Urging Whistleblowers to Come Forward.
• Update: CEO Who Offered Jobs to Pro-Hamas Protestors Watches Stock Tank, Company Loses $210 Million in Stock Value.
• 44 Senators Call on Biden to Reject Two Totalitarian Agreements That Surrender U.S Sovereignty to WHO.
• Deported Terrorist Speaks to Hamas-Endorsed Encampment at University of Chicago.

The Epoch Times:

• Adoptee DNA Matching Service Reveals Suspicious Link to China.
• China Benefits From Unscientific Electric Vehicle Mandates.

X:

• @elonmusk

• Doesn’t make sense that American taxpayers are forced to fund anti-American activities. (pic)
• Despite a massive bot purge, the 𝕏 platform reached another all-time high in usage this month!
• Please subscribe to 𝕏 @Premium to support this platform’s fight for Free Speech. (video)

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• Australians out in force in Brisbane today protesting the new Government Digital ID. It will be coming to a Country near you & needs to be resisted at all costs. (video)
• Climate Change Scam. April 2024 was officially 1.35°F colder than April 1981. That’s 43 years of Human Emissions & a clear drop in Temperature. Global Warming now called the Climate Crisis is nothing but a manufactured hoax in order to tax you & exert more State Control over its people. (map)
  

• @libsoftiktok

• Chinese people entering our country illegally near the San Diego border are destroying their ID’s when they cross over. They don’t want us to know who they are. We have no clue who’s in our country. Terrifying. (video)

• @kylenabecker

• Remember That Infamous Photo from the Trump Mar-a-Lago Raid? The FBI Staged It. (pic)

• @thestustustudio
  

• This is child abuse. Watch as children in St. Louis are made to protest and chant, "Hey hey, ho ho! Zionism has got to go!" (video)

• @StephenM
  

• Biden is flying illegals en masse into swing states before voting begins while, at the same time, his DOJ battles against voter ID and his party (successfully) opposes citizenship verification to vote. If this isn’t a criminal conspiracy to interfere in US elections, nothing is.
  

• @TomFitton

• Biden administration abusing cadets at West Point. (pic)

• @MarioNawfal

• PRES. BOLSONARO: TWO-THIRDS OF BRAZILIANS ARE SCARED TO SPEAK THEIR MINDS.

• @JackPosobiec
  

• BREAKING: TANYA TAY REVEALS HOW SOVIET SCHOOLS TAUGHT THAT THE COMMUNISTS WERE THE HEROES IN RUSSIA FIGHTING INEQUALITY AND INJUSTICE. “We were taught the farmers and small business owners deserved what they got”. (video)

• @wideawake_media

• German MEP Christine Anderson: "Future totalitarian regimes no longer require electrified barbed wire fences. All they need is a phone, a QR code, a digital ID, and then they can do with you whatever they want, and that is scary." (video)
• A glimpse into what the future might look like if universal basic income, digital ID and CBDCs become a reality. From 'Beyond The Reset', an animated short film exploring the potential consequences of the WEF's Great Reset. (video)

• @WallStreetApes

• The Black Community No Longer Asleep To Big Pharma & Government Lies. Apostle Herman L Murray “You can give the whole world a shot but you still got people starving? (video)
• America If Meat Seems Different, That’s Because It Probably Is. 3D Printed Meat is getting to the point where it can be indistinguishable from real meat in appearance due to labs using ‘Bioinks’. (video)
• An Amazing “Coincidence”. American Cattle Rancher warned the USDA would use this Bird Flu outbreak to start the EID Tags on cattle mandate. The USDA just mandated EID Tags on cattle & bison for the reason of “Disease Traceability”. Another disease that was ALL ABOUT CONTROL (video)
  

• @WallStreetSilv

• Queers for Palestine are going to be very upset when they find out. (video)

• @HawleyMO

• 72% of Palestinians believe the genocidal attacks on Israel were a great idea - and Biden wants to bring these people to America.

• @VigilantFox

• TUCKER CARLSON: “Why have so many Christian leaders just stood by and allowed Joe Biden, for example, to pose as a Christian?” (video)

• @mRNAdeaths

• 16-year-old boy dies five days after receiving the #Pfizer #mRNA vaccine. The boys father was contacted by the Federal Emergency Management Agency offering to pay for his son’s burial if he claimed COVID killed his son. (video)

• @toobaffled

• A 29-year-old influencer, who was paid by Big Pharma to promote the Covid shots on social media, has slammed the experimental jabs after cardiologists told her they caused her recent heart attack. (pic)

• @KobeissiLetter
  

• China's real estate slide continues to accelerate at a faster pace than 2008. Residential real estate volumes dropped to ~75 million per month square meters in late-2023 from ~140 million per month in 2021. That's a massive ~46% decline in volume in just over 2 years. (graph)

• @stillgray

• UCLA's Royce Hall barely resembles the hallowed halls of a college, and looks like a homeless camp now thanks to the vandalism of the campus anarchists. (video)

• @peterschweizer

• 'Violent' leader of Columbia University's anti-Israel protest is unmasked as son of millionaire ad execs who is married to a model and lives in $3.4M Brooklyn brownstone. (pic)
  

• @amuse

• FUN FACT: China now has more oil in their Strategic Petroleum Reserves than the United States. Much of the oil in China's SPR came from our SPR thanks to Biden's decision to empty it.

• @bernardwachir14

• Where did the flu go in 2020 and 2021? Just a reminder! (graph)

OpenVAERS: 

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,009,553 Reports(+1,917 from prior report) Through March 29th, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are +.25% to +.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.5 -4.25 basis points.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 63.75 -2.5 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 117.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%.
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.6 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 66.8 +.08%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.1 -.6%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.27%.
• S&P 500 futures +.06%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.01%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.