Stocks Slightly Higher into Close on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Healthcare/Utility Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.4 -.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .30 -40.0%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 64.8 -3.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 181.3 +.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.87 -.43%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 17.1 +.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 134.0 -4.0
  

• Total Put/Call 1.01 -22.9%

• NYSE Arms 1.63 +44.2%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$16.4M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.31 +.24%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 255.62 +1.53%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 273 -11
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.6 -2.3%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 182.9 -2.4%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 134.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.8 -1.8%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 161.4 +.9%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 130.7 +.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.6 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -8.75 basis points -.25 basis points
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 9.0 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 143.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 760.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 58.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.7 -.08%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.39% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 118.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.09%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.07 euros/megawatt-hour -2.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.5 unch.

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 25.8 -1.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.7 -1.6 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(425 of 500 reporting) +5.6% +.5 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 254.82 -.11:  Growth Rate +14.2% -.1 percentage point, P/E 20.4 +.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.89% -3.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +37.2% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 325.48 +.09: Growth Rate +35.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 31.3 +.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.13 +4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.00 +6.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -37.0 basis points (2s/10s) -2.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +3.3% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 47.8% -.2 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.50% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 -3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 31st FOMC meeting: 70.4%(+1.8 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th meeting: 49.0%(+.1 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -85 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +21 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +160 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my industrial/consumer discretionary/biotech
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -2.2% 2) Alt Energy -1.8% 3) Social Media -1.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BBAR, COTY,  ARMK, CELH, ACM, TALO, SPT, LITE, COHR, ALGT, PINC, TIMB, AXON, NRG, RACE, ARLP, BILI, AZPN, RRX, AL, GEO, RYAAY, PRGO, TGLS, VNO, DDOG, SUZ, BWXT, ATKR, APLS, PTLO, TDC, RYTM, PLTR, FWRG, PAY, BLDR, MYE, JELD and BYON
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) NKLA 2) HA 3) CFLT 4) ZI 5) FYBR
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) JELD 2) PLTR 3) RYTM 4) LCID 5) MDGL
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLI 2) IBB 3) XRT 4) XLK 5) XLE

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.7%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Agriculture +1.3% 2) Oil Service +1.0% 3) Healthcare Providers +1.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AMBC, EVER, ZETA, STRL, FN, TRUP, BAND, FMC, SEMR, AORT, SYM, ATSG, SGRY, MWA, ADEA, ALXO, CRGY, DK, HIMS, GFS, IART, ELVN, UBS, GOGO, IP, VTS, CBT, SGML, GOOD, SBLK, IFF, KVUE, CROX, VSTS, SMHI, GOLF, THS, FLYW, FIS, GATO, Z, TPX, AVNT, MTH, CGEM, MAC, AXS, HG and ASPN
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CFLT 2) DIS 3) BLDR 4) JMIA 5) TPX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) BVS 2) REAX 3) EVER 4) AMBC 5) ESPR
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XOP 3) XLU 4) XLP 5) XLB
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CHH)/1.14
• (SATS)/-.20
• (EMR)/1.25
• (FOXA)/.96
• (STWD)/.46
• (UBER)/.22
• (VSH)/.22
• (WWW)/.00
  

After the Close: 

• (ABNB)/.23
• (APP)/.57
• (ARM)/.30
• (BGS)/.21
• (BYND)/-.67
• (CAKE)/.63
• (DUOL)/.27
• (CART)/-.02
• (JXN)/3.75
• (NWSA)/.11
• (HOOD)/.06
• (RGLD)/.92
• (STE)/2.35
• (TTD)/.22
• (VZIO)/.00
• (ELAN)/.26
• (LPX)/1.12
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for March is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +2.3% gain in Feb.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,430,000 barrels versus a +7,265,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,000,000 barrels versus a -732,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,180,000 barrels versus a +344,000 barrel gain the prior week.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Jefferson speaking, Fed's Cook speaking, Fed's Collins speaking, 10Y T-Bond auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI for May, (SPG) annual meeting, (CSX) annual meeting, (AMD) annual meeting, (FSLR) annual meeting, (GILD) annual meeting, (PM) annual meeting, (BRO) annual meeting, Assoc. for Research in Vision/Ophthalmology Meeting and the American Society of Gene/Cell Therapy Meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -1.6% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.9 +.9
  
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 66.6% of Issues Advancing, 31.3% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.93 +70.8%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$94.1M
  
• 181 New 52-Week Highs, 12 New Lows
• 60.9% (+1.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 59.0 +3.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.0 -3.0%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 242.26 -.59%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,222.0 -.14%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 39.0 (Fear) -1
  
• 1-Day Vix 8.5 -7.3%
  
• Vix 13.4 -.8%
  
• Total Put/Call .99 -24.4%

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Israel Says a Cease-Fire Plan Backed by Hamas Falls Far Short.
• Strong Dollar Forces a Rethink of Exports-Currency Rule in Korea.
• Asia Stocks to Follow US Rally on Rates Optimism.
• Oil Rises With Mideast Tension to the Fore as Truce Talks Falter.
• Hedge Funds Turn Bullish on Consumer Stocks Ahead of Potential Rate Cuts, Goldman Says.
• Harvard, MIT Threaten Punishment for Protesters in Ultimatum.

Zerohedge:  

• Mass Arrests In NYC As More Than 1,000 Pro-Palestine Protesters March To Met Gala.
• Israel Moving Forward With Rafah Ground Offensive.
• Death Of Self-Checkout, Walmart Charges For It In Some Locations.
• Mapping The Number Of AI Startups By Country.
• Panama Elects New President Who Vows To Shut Migrant Trail, Restore Economy.
• Confidence In Biden Economic Stewardship Historically Low.
• Five Simple Policies To Reset America's "Rigged" Health System.
• DHS Shuts Down Expert Group That Denied Hunter Biden Laptop Story.
• US stocks extended on post-NFP gains, while oil prices were choppy amid geopolitical uncertainty - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• How Ridiculous? Blade-Less Swiss Army Knife Debuts As Weapon Laws Tighten .
• House Panel Calls To Defund Federal Agencies That Stonewall Congressional Probes.
• The Militia Used As An FBI Front Group In 2020 Is Again Proliferating On Facebook.
• Tyson Foods Warns Low-Income Consumers Are Cracking Under Inflation Storm.
• Stocks add to post NFP gains while oil chops to geopolitics - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• The Washington 'Blob' Seems "Ready To Wreck The Republic To Save Themselves".
• 'Squeezey' Stock Market Extends Gains; Bonds & Bullion Bid.

Wall Street Journal:

• Israel Attacks Rafah, as It Questions Hamas Cease-Fire Terms.
• Boeing’s Big Space Test: Using Starliner to Ferry NASA Astronauts.
• U.S. Delays Sending Precision Weapons to Israel.
• Columbia Cancels Main Graduation Ceremony.
• Apple Is Developing AI Chips for Data Centers, Seeking Edge in Arms Race.
• Biden Is Coming for Your Air Conditioner. New regulations will drive up the costs of units and refrigerants.
• One of the Biggest Hospital Failures in Decades Raises Concerns for Patient Care.

CNBC.com:

• ‘Twist’ in Warren Buffett’s succession plan raises eyebrows among Berkshire’s Omaha faithful.
• Microsoft signs deal to remove 3.3 million metric tons of carbon dioxide.
• Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser says low-income consumers have turned far more cautious with spending.
• Taser and police body cam maker Axon is acquiring air defense startup Dedrone.
• Why fast-food price increases have surpassed overall inflation.
• Renters’ hopes of being able to buy a home have fallen to a record low, New York Fed survey shows.
  

MarketWatch.com: 

• Palantir logs earnings beat, but stock cools down in wake of sharp rally.
• Citadel CEO Ken Griffin sees first Fed rate cut in September or December, with services inflation a concern.

Newsmax:

• House GOP Set to Hold Garland in Contempt Over Hur's Biden Audio.

Fox News:

• Trump speaks out after NY judge threatens to send him to jail for gag order violations.
• Kevin O'Leary sounds off on Hims & Hers CEO's support of anti-Israel agitators in US.
• Elite university eliminates DEI hiring requirement: 'They don't work'.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• REVEALED: Bragg’s Top Prosecutor Matthew Colangelo – A Former DOJ Official Biden Sent to NY to Take Down Trump – Was Paid By DNC for ‘Political Consulting’.
• Republican Senators Warn ICC Chief Prosecutor Regarding Netanyahu Arrest Warrant: “Target Israel and We Will Target You… You Have Been Warned”.
• “I’ll Do that Sacrifice Any Day” -Trump Says He’s Ready to Go to Jail to Defend US Constitution (VIDEO).
• Stunning Admission: Jack Smith Declares His Team Tampered with the Evidence (VIDEO).
• Brave Jewish U of M Student Stands Up To Pro-Palestine/Hamas Protester—“You’re supporting terrorists overseas—You’re supporting raping women—You’re supporting killing babies and putting them in ovens, like Hitler!” [VIDEO].
• “First They Came for the Christians But I Said Nothing Because I Was a Jew…” OP-ED By Rabbi and J6 Attorney CRITICIZES NEW ANTI-SEMITISM BILL.
• Over 1,000 US Soldiers “Are Functionally Being Held HOSTAGE!” – Matt Gaetz Releases Report on the 1,000 US Soldiers Trapped in Niger as Biden’s Africa Policy Implodes (VIDEO).
• WAYNE ROOT: My Warning to President Trump: This Crisis & Chaos in America is All About Obama. Get Ready for What’s Coming Next. Hint: Michelle Obama.
• Cuomo Admits Antivaxxers Were RIGHT, Shares SHOCKING Admission | Beyond the Headlines.
• IRELAND FOR THE IRISH: Dublin Sees Huge Protest Against Mass Immigration – Ruling Sinn Fein Party Blasted by Crowd as ‘Traitors’.
• ‘Little Joe,’ Beloved Saint Louis Zoo Gorilla, Dies from Heart Attack Three Years After Receiving COVID-19 Vaccines.
• Leo Hohmann: Backlash Growing Against Biden Plans to Import Tens of Thousands of Palestinian Refugees.
• Service Members Are Waiting For Congress and Department of Defense to Acknowledge That the COVID-19 Shot Mandate Was Unlawful and Harmful.
• Latest Government Report Reveals 10 Times Biden Regime Pressured Facebook to Take Down What Ended Up Being Truthful Information on COVID and the Vaccines – And The Gateway Pundit Was One of Its Primary Targets.

The Epoch Times:

• Shanghai Office Vacancies Hit New High.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,009,553 Reports(+1,917 from prior report) Through March 29th, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.25 -3.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 63.5 -.25 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 119.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.02%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.7 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 66.8 -.5%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.7 -.57%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.38%.

• S&P 500 futures -.01%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.09%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.