Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Growth Prospects, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.0 -1.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .43 +41.9%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 64.5 +.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 182.3 +.5%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.92 +.44%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 16.5 -2.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 133.0 +4.0
  

• Total Put/Call .93 -6.1%

• NYSE Arms .84 -42.5%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$183.9M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.5 +.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 257.4 +1.6%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 279 +6
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.48 -.18%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 182.5 -.21%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 134.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.7 +1.8%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 162.5 +.72%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 123.3 -5.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.6 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -8.5 basis points +.25 basis points
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 8.5 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.0 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 144.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 758.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 57.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.6 -.08%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.39% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 116.7 USD/Metric Tonne +1.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 30.6 euros/megawatt-hour -1.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.4 +.1

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 25.7 -.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 27.8 -1.9 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(439 of 500 reporting) +5.4% -.2 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 254.93 +.11:  Growth Rate +14.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.3 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.89% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +37.2% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 325.49 +.01: Growth Rate +35.5% unch., P/E 31.3 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.13 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.07 +7.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -35.0 basis points (2s/10s) +2.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +4.2% +90.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 47.0% -.8 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.50% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 +1.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 31st FOMC meeting: 68.6%(+.1 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th meeting: 48.9%(+.1 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +223 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +21 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +154 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my financial/tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.6%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Road & Rail -1.9% 2) Electric Vehicles -1.6% 3) Video Gaming -1.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• YOU, PEN, SONY, MTCH, AMRK, AVDX, UPST, KVYO, RWAY, CRSR, AVDL, RRR, QTRX, UBER, TWLO, MAX, CPNG, CDRE, AFRM, BHF, MASI, QLYS, EYE, ODP, CYRX, ATEC, FLYW, GO, SHOP, YMAB, RPD, ZI, TRIP, INSP and DV
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) RUM 2) TRIP 3) UAA 4) MP 5) ZI
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TRIP 2) SHOP 3) AFRM 4) SATS 5) ZI
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLI 2) XRT 3) CIBR 4) XLK 5) ARKK

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.2%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Shipping +2.0% 2) Telecom +1.3% 3) Networking +1.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• KD, ELAN, GMED, AMRC, PWSC, LPX, IRBT, ASC, ODD, TEVA, RNG, MYGN, TOST, PCRX, BRP, WWW, BROS, VST, CRUS, DNLI, IEP, CFLT, POWI, OFIX, INSW, ARIS, DO, GFF, INTA, HEAR, ALCC, ANET, AZPN, LYFT, RDDT, CRNX, CHTR, NYT, OSCR, TNP, PRKS, DDOG, EMR, SEMR, TRMD, MWA, LITE, RCM, RYAAY and LAUR
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) TRIP 2) LAZR 3) BMBL 4) XLP 5) NXE

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) GMED 2) PWSC 3) PAYO 4) TOST 5) RNG
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLP 2) XLF 3) ITB 4) IDU 5) SOXX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CAMT)/.57
• (CSIQ)/-.01
• (CARS)/.49
• (CEG)/1.30
• (HBI)/-.06
• (H)/.77
• (DNUT)/.06 
• (PZZA)/.57
• (PLNT)/.50
• (RBLX)/-.53
• (SBH)/.40
• (TPR)/.68
• (WRBY)/.07
• (YETI)/.24
  

After the Close: 

• (AKAM)/1.61
• (DBX)/.50
• (GH)/-.87
• (HRB)/4.62
• (SYNA)/.49
• (TREX)/.72
• (YELP)/.06
• (DDS)/9.69
• (PLUG)/-.33
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 212K versus 208K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1782K versus 1774K prior.
  

10:00 am EST

• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for May is estimated to fall to 76.2 versus 77.2 in April.
• Univ. of Mich. 1Y Inflation Expectations for May is estimated at +3.2% versus +3.2% expected in April.
  

2:00 pm EST

• The Monthly Budget Statement for April is estimated at $250.0B versus $176.2B in March.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Daly speaking, 30Y Bond auction, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI for May, (ANDE) annual meeting, (KEY) annual meeting, (F) annual meeting, (NSC) annual meeting, (TSCO) annual meeting, (STLD) annual meeting, (CME) annual meeting, (DUK) annual meeting, (LVS) annual meeting, (UNP) annual meeting, (URI) annual meeting, (SYK) annual meeting, (VZ) annual meeting, Assoc. for Research in Vision/Ophthalmology Meeting and the American Society of Gene/Cell Therapy Meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -1.3% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.7 -1.2
  
• 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
• 40.6% of Issues Advancing, 57.1% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .97 -33.6%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$171.4M
  
• 106 New 52-Week Highs, 26 New Lows
• 59.7% (-.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 57.0 -2.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 63.7 -1.0%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 240.8 -.19%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,157.0 -.20%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 39.0 (Fear) unch.
  
• 1-Day Vix 9.1 +8.6%
  
• Vix 13.3 +.5%
  
• Total Put/Call .95 -4.0%

Wednesday Watch

X:

• @elonmusk 

• Why it is so important for @xAI’s @Grok to succeed. This is a much bigger deal than it may seem.
  

• @libsoftiktok
  

• Some pro-Palestinian protesters on college campuses are allegedly getting paid $7,800 for just 8 hours of protesting. George Soros is funding a huge part of it. This anti-American movement is purposeful, well organized, and well funded. (video)
  

• @kylenabecker

• Mark Zuckerberg, known for his Climate Change activism, shows off his new $300 million mega yacht. Zuck's 287-foot mega yacht is powered by four MTU diesel engines and can reach a top speed of 24 knots. America's elites are laughing right in our faces. (video)

• @stclairashley

• Ukraine, a war torn country, has increased its millionaire population by 1,200 in the last year. All requests for an audit of US federal funds being sent to Ukraine have been unsuccessful.

• @wideawake_media

• Straight out of the CCP playbook, the Îles de la Madeleine in Quebec, Canada, have imposed mandatory QR codes for people to enter and exit. Failure to provide a valid QR code incurs a fine. Coming to the rest of Canada and the West soon? (video)
• The WHO is now trying to blame cows for the spread of H5N1 'bird flu', which could supposedly develop the ability to infect humans, with an "extraordinarily high" mortality rate. Will the WHO now start calling for cows to be culled in the name of "public health", leaving people no option but to eat insects and lab-grown "meat"? And is it just a "coincidence" that this should occur just weeks before the WHO Pandemic Agreement is set to be voted on? You decide. (video)
  

• @JunkScience

• China has captured the US economy, subverted our society, killed us with COVID, crippled America's ability to act internationally and has God-only-knows-what on Joe Biden. But the NYTimes and Princeton's @rorytruex have no worries. (pic)

• @EndWokeness

• The fact that there's now a line for this in our airports is insane. Beyond words. (pic)
• 42 out of 50 states in the United States do not require a photo ID to vote. Countries that require a photo ID to vote: (list)

• @VigilantFox

• Media Blackout: 10 News Stories They Chose Not to Tell You. (list)
  

• @MarioNawful

• ELON: AMERICA ENDS WITHOUT FREE SPEECH. "It's obviously not possible to have democratic elections if people do not have access to the information that would allow them to make the right decisions. If speech is constrained in a fundamental way, you just can't expect people to make the right decision or an informed decision because they are prevented from being informed. (video)

• @WallStreetApes 

• WOW This Is Unbelievable. Moms Across America Meeting With The FDA. FDA said 98% of samples tested for herbicides did not exceed the regulatory limits. Turns out, out of the top 25 herbicides used in America, The FDA was ONLY TESTING FOR 2 OF THEM & TELLING US OUR FOOD IS SAFE.
• “California has shut down, I believe two, and they're set to shut down their third state prison.” “The county prisons are too full. So they're just releasing like violent offenders well before their sentence is over.” (video)
• How Corrupt Is US Government? Congressman Tim Burchett Says If Anyone Were To Leak Where The Money Goes When The Pentagon Fails Their Audits, They’d Be Murdered. (video)
• Be Prepared For A PLANNED “Giant Emergency”. Canadian Armed Forces & local police are doing a door-to-door ‘wellness check’. “They're basically asking, how are you doing and are you prepared in case of a giant emergency? They are also giving out brochures of everything that you should have in case of an emergency. And to be ready because emergency preparedness starts with you.” (video)
  

• @DowdEdward
  

• Aubrey has dropped his full film “Unsafe & Ineffective” on Twitter. Spread far and wide. (video)
• Pfizer CEO excited about Cancer prospects for his company. This is in your face disgusting. (video)

• @BGatesIsaPsycho 

• Listen to ex England Football Star Matt Le Tissier discuss Epstein’s Island. Politicians, movie stars, CEO & even Royal Family who visited ‘the Island’ over several decades - were all compromised & therefore corruptible there on after. The fact there have been no prosecutions should tell you all you need to know about the ruling elite. (video)

• @LauraLoomer
  

• A couple days ago, @AlexanderSoros was in Michigan with @GovWhitmer. Now he’s in Arizona with Cindy McCain. The McCain family is now working with the Soros family to make sure Trump doesn’t win Arizona. Alex Soros continues his swing state tour. He just posted this picture of himself with @cindymccain on his Instagram.(pic)

• @CitizenFreePress

• Meanwhile at Harvard. Blasting the national anthem while Hamas campers are sleeping. (video)

• @RepMattGaetz

• BREAKING: I was informed today by the Director of the Federal Bureau of Prisons that my request to interview @RealPNavarro would be denied. And her reason is that Peter Navarro is “too notorious” to be interviewed by a member of Congress! This only vindicates the claim made by Peter Navarro that he is being held as a political prisoner. (video)

• @StopAntisemites

• DePaul University - a peaceful protestor shows a 10 and 7 on his fingers then motions to slit his throat, insinuating the 10/7 Israel massacre. (video)

• @catturd2
  

• Back to reality ... In 2022, the Biden regime made it no longer "mandatory" to report crime stats to the FBI. The results was over 1/3 (over 6000 precincts) didn't report any crimes to the FBI. Cities that hardly reported any crime stats to the FBI include NYC, Baltimore, Washington DC, Miami and a ton of entire huge cities. Of course, this was done by the Democrats to hide their soaring crime numbers and easily fool low IQ sheep into believing easily provable hogwash. (video)
  

• @WallStreetSilv

• "Journalists" in Europe refuse to show these videos in their "news" coverage. Then the "journalists" attack accounts like @RadioGenoa for showing what is actually happening in Europe with the invaders. These radical communist "journalists" hate you and want to see you dead. They want to see Europe destroyed. They hate their own countries and hate their own people. (video)

• @OliLondonTV

• Massive mob issue chilling incitement to violence and call for protesters to escalate in NYC. “This is the time to escalate. Wherever you are. Join us.” The crowd then repeat the chant with zombie-like obedience. “It is the time to escalate.” (video)

• @songpinganq

• Now, 54% of all surveillance cameras in the world are situated in China. It's an interlinked system, called SKYNET. It will track you where you live, shop, learn and travel, to make sure you behave yourself, or it can take social credit points or digital money from you. (video)
• In China, if your social credit score gets too low (hence you are blacklisted), authorities even ban you from refueling your car. Now, gas stations have deployed facial recognition to weed out people with low social credit scores. (video)

• @Red_Pill_US

• This Project Veritas secret recording from April 2021 is being censored on virtually every platform. Will X censor it too? Pay close attention to what CNN Technical Director, Charlie Chester, reveals: "Once the public are no longer scared of "Covid", "climate change" will take centre stage as the new imaginary boogeyman to terrify everyone into submission with... That's like the next pandemic like story, that we'll beat to death, but that one's got longevity. You know what I mean? (video)

•  @PeterSweden7

• THEN: Stalin called farmers "enemies of the people" and SEIZED the farms. NOW: Farmers are called "enemies of the climate" and there's talks about essentially SEIZING thousands of farms in the Netherlands. It's Climate Communism.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,009,553 Reports(+1,917 from prior report) Through March 29th, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.0 +1.75 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 63.0 -.5 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 118.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.14%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.7 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 65.4 +1.6%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.7 unch.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.08%.

• S&P 500 futures +.01%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.04%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.