Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.2%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -1.2% 2) Gold & Silver -1.0% 3) Digital Health -1.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ACI, ULTA, EE, ALNY, ALAB and ESTC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) WMG 2) FIVE 3) ASHR 4) HUT 5) SPHR
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ESTC 2) EGIO 3) DDD 4) ALNY 5) ULTA
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLK 2) XRT 3) VDE 4) VIS 5) XLC

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.4%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Electric Vehicles +2.0% 2) Semis +1.5% 3) Shipping +1.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MDB, BBIO, MRVL, MXL, CLCO, INTC, AAOI, TITN, AMRK, FUTU, QXO, YPF, AFRM, PGNY, BMA, JKS, DELL, GGAL, FRO, OLLI, BBW, DCTH, DINO and PGY
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) FLR 2) K 3) DNB 4) BSX 5) DISH

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MDB 2) DELL 3) MRVL 4) CAVA 5) AVGO
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) VGT 2) VDC 3) XLI 4) XLF 5) VOX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tuesday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (MOMO)/1.84

After the Close: 

• (GTLB)/.10
• (PD)/.17
• (ZS)/.70
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending MoM for July is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.3% decline in June. 
• ISM Manufacturing for August is estimated to rise to 47.5 versus 46.8 in July.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow 3Q update, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for Sept., Goldman Sachs Retailing Conference, Morgan Stanley Healthcare Conference, Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference, Barclays Consumer Staples Conference, Benchmark Tech/Media/Telecom Conference, (DHR) analyst day, Jefferies Industrial Conference and the Citi Tech Conference could also impact global trading on Tuesday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -27.2% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.2 +.3
  
• 10 Sectors Declining, 1 Sector Rising
• 35.2% of Issues Advancing, 61.9% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.02 -6.4%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$38.1M
  
• 198 New 52-Week Highs, 12 New Lows
• 60.7% (-.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 65.0 -3.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 56.6 +1.7%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 226.4 +.06%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,411.3 +.17%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 62.0 (GREED) +10.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 11.8 -9.1%
  
• Vix 15.9 +1.3%
  
• Total Put/Call .79 -15.1%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 92.0 -1.0 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 57.5 -.75 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 101.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.9 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 56.0 +.6%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.8 -1.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.12%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.22%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Commodity/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average
  

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.7 -8.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.20 +49.5%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 55.9 +4.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 176.8 -.3%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.12 +2.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 14.9 +2.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 153.0 +15.0
  

• Total Put/Call .91 +2.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.111 -5.9%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$243.7M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.6 -.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 296.5 -2.0%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 254 +11
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.8 -.2%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 161.3 +.32%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 138.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 92.2 -.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 160.71 +.5%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 127.7 -7.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.1 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -19.5 basis points -1.75 basis points
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -22.75 basis points +1.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -.5 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 134.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 695.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 66.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.9 -.11%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.11% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 101.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.03%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 38.6 euros/megawatt-hour +.21%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -24.8 +2.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -50.2 +6.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -11.0 +1.7 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(490 of 500 reporting) +11.4% +2.0 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 265.20 +.17:  Growth Rate +13.5% -2.8 percentage points, P/E 21.3 +.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.69% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +36.3% +10.0 percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 344.76 +.27: Growth Rate +22.0% -6.4 percentage points, P/E 32.3 +.6
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .77 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .80 +6.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -3.0 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +1.99% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 71.0% +.1 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.64% unch.: CPI YoY +2.56% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.16 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th FOMC meeting: 46.0%(+4.1 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th meeting: 44.6%(+.5 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -77 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -24 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -35 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my industrial/tech/utility/biotech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long