The NAHB Housing Market Index for April fell to 68 from 70 in March. "Builders continue to express confidence in the overall housing market and expect sales to remain strong during the next six months," said Dave Wilson, president of the association. Mortgage interest rates within a percentage point of four-decade lows are helping to sustain strong demand for housing. The average 30-yr. mortgage rate fell to 5.80% this week from 6.04% at the beginning of the month. "Many builders are reporting higher lot prices and some difficulty in finding available land, both symptoms of strong demand for new homes," said Dave Sanders, chief economist for the builders' group.
The Producer Price Index for March rose .7% versus estimates of a .6% increase and a .4% gain in February. The PPI Ex Food & Energy for March rose .1% versus estimates of a .2% increase and a .1% gain in February. The core rate suggests companies are having limited success in passing on higher energy costs, reinforcing forecasts that Fed policy makers won't step up the pace of interest rate increases as the economy shows signs of slowing, Bloomberg said. "This takes pressure off the Fed to be more aggressive," said Michael Englund, chief economist at Action Economics. Energy prices surged 3.3% last month, the biggest rise since October, after rising 1.4% in February, Bloomberg reported.
Housing Starts for March fell to 1837K versus estimates of 2090K and an upwardly revised 2229K in February. Building Permits for March fell to 2023K versus estimates of 2090K and an upwardly revised 2107K in February. The March data probably exaggerated any slowdown in housing, economists said. "Starts in January and February were lights-out numbers, way above last year, and totally unsustainable," said Roger Kubarych, a senior economic advisor at HVB America. Builders broke ground on new housing at a 2.063 million annual rate in the first three months of 2005. If continued, that pace would make this year the strongest since 1972, Bloomberg reported. The housing "market is easing but not having major problems," said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors. "The frothiness that we saw over much of the last 24 months is subsiding a little bit and that's a good thing because the increasing home values it produced were pricing some people out of the market." The gap between housing starts and permits is notably large and suggest that housing starts will rebound in April," said Gary Bigg, an economist at Banc of America Securities.
The Consumer Price Index for March rose .6% versus estimates of a .5% gain and a .4% increase in February. The CPI Ex Food & Energy for March rose .4% versus estimates of a .2% increase and a .3% gain in February. The increase in core inflation suggests companies were more able to pass along some costs for higher fuel and energy prices. Central bankers still are likely to confine rate increases to quarter-point steps, economists said after the report. "You still see some increases in inflation, but it's still not enough to be a major concern at this point," said Glenn Haberbush, an economist at Mizuho Securities. The year-over-year increase in core consumer prices decelerated for the first time since last August, Bloomberg reported. Also, the core index was pushed up by a 3.9% jump in lodging costs, which economists said is typically a volatile category, Bloomberg said. Year-over-year, all consumer prices rose 3.1%, near the long-term average of 3.0%, Bloomberg reported. Inflation "remains well contained, and things look good going forward," said Janet Yellen, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
US factories, retailers and service companies were able to pass on to consumers some of the higher costs of energy and other raw materials, the Fed said in its Beige Book survey. "Reports from many districts suggested that upward price pressures have strengthened, although actual increases in vendor prices and selling prices have generally remained moderate," according to the report. In two-thirds of the Fed's 12 districts, "retail or tourism contacts expressed concern that high energy prices were already, or could soon be, damping consumer demand," the Fed said. "Manufacturing activity is sturdy and consumers continue to spend at a relatively healthy rate. These anecdotes on growth suggest that any slowing in the economy is likely to be temporary," said Joseph LaVorgna, chief fixed income economist at Deutsche Bank. Wage pressures were "modest or moderate" in most regions of country. Wages account for about two-thirds of the final costs of goods and services, Bloomberg said.
Initial Jobless Claims for last week fell to 296K versus estimates of 329K and 332K the prior week. Continuing Claims fell to 2638K versus estimates of 2655K and 2655K prior. The figures were distorted by this year's early Easter holiday, the Labor Dept. said. "When companies are trying to contain costs in an expanding economy, they don't hire workers as much and they don't fire workers as much," said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial.
The Leading Indicators for March fell .4% versus estimates of a .3% decline and a .1% increase in February. "March wasn't pretty at all," said Tim Rogers, chief economist at Briefing.com. "The economy still has plenty of momentum, so the downtrend should bring us to just average growth," Rogers said. The Conference Board has indicated that conditions suggesting imminent risk of recession would be a six-month annualized decline of 3.5% or more. The decline through March was only .5%, Bloomberg said.
Philadelphia Fed. for April rose to 25.3 versus estimates of 10.0 and a reading of 11.4 in March. Corporate purchases of new equipment are helping spur production as record crude oil prices dampen consumer spending, Bloomberg said. "Business sentiment was sorely depressed in March, but it has come roaring back in April," said Chris Rupkey, senior financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi. The prices paid index for raw materials surged to 50.5 from 29.7, Bloomberg reported. The index of current manufacturing employment rose to 16.8 from 10.1 in March. As well, the new orders component of the index increased to 20.3 from 13.2, Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: Overall, last week's economic data were mildly negative. I continue to believe the housing market is cooling from white hot levels to more sustainable and healthy rates. With the recent drop in mortgage rates and some pent-up demand from one of the wettest winters in US history, home sales should accelerate during the seasonably strong spring months. Measures of inflation were mostly higher last week. However, the .1% increase in the Core PPI is a big positive, considering the recent rise in energy prices. As well, the fact that the 10-yr T-note yield remained unchanged shows investors' future inflation expectations are beginning to diminish. I expect inflation measures to begin decelerating again over the next couple of months. I also continue to expect modest job gains over the coming months. The pace of improvement will allow unemployment to gradually decline without spurring a substantial increase in unit labor costs, which are the main component of inflation. The decline in the Leading Indicators suggests a modest slowdown in US growth is likely underway. As I have stated before, growth may temporarily slow to around 2% before bouncing back to 3% in the second half of the year. However, the sharp rise in the Philly Fed may mean the "soft patch" has not begun in earnest yet. I continue to believe the fact that oil inventories are 6% above historical averages is likely a result of companies expecting even higher prices in the future, which has temporarily resulted in an artificial boost in demand. As perceptions change regarding the future direction of oil prices, this demand will evaporate and likely cause an even greater decline in the price of crude than would otherwise be the case. I expect this to occur in the second half of the year. Finally, the ECRI Weekly Leading Index increased .07% to 135.30 and is still near cycle highs.