Monday Watch

Today's Headlines
Bloomberg: 

• China Stocks Tumble Toward 15-Month Low as Stimulus Bets Unwind. Chinese stocks sank, with the benchmark index approaching the lowest level since November 2014, as some investors were disappointed by a lack of specific measures to boost growth during the Group of 20 meeting in Shanghai. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 3.5 percent, after tumbling as much as 4.4 percent earlier. Declines were led by commodity producers and technology companies. The measure has lost 25 percent this year, the worst performer among 93 global equity gauges, on concern capital outflows will accelerate as the economic slowdown deepens. The yuan headed for its longest losing streak this year. Investors had hoped the government would announce measures to bolster the economy over the weekend, said Ronald Wan, chief executive officer at Partners Capital International Ltd. in Hong Kong. There are also increasing signs funds are shifting from equities to housing, according to Steve Wang, chief China economist at Reorient Financial Markets Ltd. "Investors feel disappointed over the lack of good news from the G-20, while the yuan has started to weaken again," Wang said in Hong Kong. "There are signs of panic buying in China’s property market as prices in large cities continue to rise. A hazy economic outlook prompted some people to sell shares and buy homes, while many stocks remain overvalued."
• Chinese Tycoon Loses 37 Million Web Followers After Faulting Xi. China’s top Internet regulator closed the social media accounts of an influential retired property developer who criticized President Xi Jinping’s campaign to tighten control over state-run media. 
• Nintendo Falls After Halving Profit Outlook on Weak 3DS Sales. Nintendo Co. fell the most in two weeks in Tokyo after halving its annual profit outlook on weak sales of 3DS handheld players and the impact of a stronger yen, increasing pressure on the company to make its smartphone debut next month a success. The stock dropped as much as 5.4 percent to 15,110 yen as of 9:04 a.m., the biggest decline on an intraday basis since Feb. 12. The Kyoto-based company on Friday slashed its net income target 51 percent to 17 billion yen ($150 million) in the year ending March and cut its 3DS sales outlook 13 percent.
• U.K.'s Future Outside EU Is Rosy, Pro-`Brexit' Ministers Say. Two of the leading U.K. government ministers campaigning for an exit from the European Union played up the prospects for Britain if it votes to leave the bloc, rejecting warnings from Prime Minister David Cameron and Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne. “Britain is a great country, the people here are inventive, innovative, and they will find a way with us to actually have a real deal that gives Britain access to the world and access to Europe,” Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith said on BBC Television’s “Andrew Marr Show” on Sunday. “Why would we have such a low opinion of the British people that we go out and talk about leaping into the dark, we talk about profound shocks, we talk about them not being capable, that we’re too small?”
• The World's Most Popular Stock Picks Are Sinking. A successful strategy to avoid the worst of this year’s equity retreat: ask your analyst what to buy and sell, then do the opposite. The stocks most beloved by strategists around the world, from U.S. gamemaker Activision Blizzard Inc. to Chinese electrical appliances maker Midea Group Co., have fallen 11 percent in 2016 on average. Companies ranked at the bottom of the heap by analysts are down 3.4 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
• Arab States Face $94 Billion Debt Crunch on Oil Slump, HSBC Says. Gulf Cooperation Council countries may struggle to refinance $94 billion of debt in the next two years as the region faces slowing growth, rising rates and rating downgrades, according to HSBC Holdings Plc. Oil-rich GCC states have to refinance $52 billion of bonds and $42 billion of syndicated loans, mostly in the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, HSBC said in an e-mailed report. The countries also face a fiscal and current account deficit of $395 billion over the period, it said. Expectations that these funding gaps "will be part financed through the sale of sovereign U.S. dollar debt will complicate efforts to refinance existing paper that matures over 2016 and 2017," Simon Williams, HSBC’s chief economist for the Middle East, said in the report. "With the Gulf acting as a single credit market, the refinancing challenge will likely be much more broadly felt" and "compounded by tightening regional liquidity, rising rates and recent downgrades," he said.
• Chinese Shares Drop After G-20 as Japan Stocks Gain; Kiwi Falls. Asian stocks were a mixed bag after Group of 20 finance chiefs made only vague commitments to spur growth after talks in Shanghai. The yen rebounded from a three-day drop and New Zealand’s dollar weakened. Chinese stocks sank to the lowest level since November 2014, while Japan’s Topix index gained for a third day. Nissan Motor Co. surged the most since 2009 after announcing a plan to buy back shares. New Zealand’s dollar was headed for the biggest two-day loss in almost four months as weak economic data boosted the case for an interest-rate cut. Crude oil traded near $33 a barrel as U.S. drillers cut the number of active rigs to the lowest level in more than six years. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.2 percent as of 11:18 a.m. Tokyo time.
• Trump Passes Up Opportunity to Disavow White Supremacist Support. Billionaire real estate developer Donald Trump passed up a chance on Sunday to condemn former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke and other white supremacists who’ve expressed support for his 2016 presidential bid. “I know nothing about David Duke,” Trump said on CNN’s “State of the Union” television show. “I know nothing about white supremacists.” Duke voiced backing for Trump on his radio program recently, and praised him for “taking on the Jewish establishment,” although he stopped short of endorsing the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination. He also said that “voting against Donald Trump at this point is really treason to your heritage.”

Wall Street Journal:

• The New Oil-Storage Space: Railcars. U.S. market is so oversupplied with oil that traders are experimenting with a new place for storing excess crude.

CNBC:

• Fed is paralyzed by the market: Raoul Pal. (video)
• Christie Campaign's Finance Co-Chair Calls on Donors to Reject Trump. Meg Whitman, the CEO of Hewlett-Packard who had an official role with Gov. Chris Christie's now-suspended presidential campaign, called his endorsement of Trump, "an astonishing display of political opportunism." Whitman served in the role of National Finance Co-Chair for Christie's campaign. "Trump would take America on a dangerous journey. Christie knows all that and indicated as much many times publicly," Whitman wrote in a statement.

Zero Hedge:

• The G-20 Meeting Was A Big Disappointment: What Happens Next.
• China Stocks Crash: Down More Than 4% To Fresh 15 Month Lows. (graph)
• The Three Charts That No Small Cap Asset Manager Wants You To See. (graph)
• China Devalues Most In 8 Weeks, Offshore Yuan Slides To 3-Week Lows. (graph)
• China's Housing Bubble Is Back: Locals Wait In Line For Days To Flip Houses. (graph)
• Kuroda's NIRP Backlash - Japanese Interbank Lending Crashes. (graph)
• Forward Guidance: The Road Map To Crazy Town.
• Central Banks Shiny New Tool: Cash-Escape-Inhibitors.
• The Central Bankers' Greatest Blunder Yet: Negative Rates = Deleveraging.
• Saxobank CIO Is "Shorting Everything" Into "Nasty March".
• Bull Rallies In Bear Markets - The Perfect Storm. (graph)
• "Another Crisis Is Certain", Warns Former BOE Chief.
• Ukraine Collapse Is Now Imminent.
• The Second Tech Bubble Has Burst, And Here Come The Mass Layoffs. (graph)
• About That $1 Trillion In Distressed Credit: UBS Responds To Wall Street's Shock.
• The Hidden Persuaders - How The Internet Flips Election & Alters Our Thoughts.
• US Government 'Asks' Tech Companies To Tweak Algos, Promote Certain Content.
• Dear Warren, Nothing Lasts Forever.

 Business Insider:

• Ted Cruz interview turns testy after Fox News' Chris Wallace asks about allegations of 'dirty tricks'. (video)
• This is the Fed's nightmare scenario.
• The recent rise in inflation might mean recession is already here.
• In the last 115 years, only one thing has stopped a profit collapse from leading to recession.
• London's housing crisis just reached a turning point.
• TRUMP: It's fine to spread 'very good' Mussolini quotes.
• Ted Cruz speculates of possible mafia ties in Donald Trump's tax returns.
• STRATFOR founder George Friedman gave us some jarring predictions for the future.
• These 2 things will pop the housing bubbles in San Francisco and Silicon Valley.
• Oil prices may be going up, but they can still cause a US recession. According to Jason Schenker, president and chief economist at Prestige Economics, the uptick in oil price isn't enough to save many oil companies — or the US economy — from disaster.

@FPWellman:

• Donald Trump knew who David Duke was in the year 2000.

Reuters:

• Japan factory output rises fastest in a year, outlook uncertain. Japan's industrial output rose the most in a year in January, tentatively signaling a pick up in factory activity, but the outlook remains far from assured given global market jitters and weakening demand both at home and abroad. The 3.7 percent month-on-month gain compared with economists' median estimate of a 3.3 percent gain in a Reuters poll, and followed a 1.7 percent drop in December, trade ministry data showed.

 Financial Times:

• US first-quarter earnings outlook dims on falling oil. Wall Street analysts have slashed expectations for US earnings in the first quarter as companies grapple with plummeting oil prices and slow economic growth. The growing pessimism comes amid a brutal start to the year for the stock market during which the S&P 500 has been marked by volatility as the outlook for global economic growth darkens, led by uncertainty over the slowdown in China.

 Telegraph:

• Mervyn King: the eurozone is doomed. The eurozone is doomed to fail and will lurch from crisis to crisis unless it is broken up, according to the former governor of the Bank of England.
• US shale frackers eye world conquest despite bloodbath. Dozens of indebted US shale companies face annihilation over coming months as their hedge protection runs out and creditors pull the plug, but veteran frackers insist defiantly that the slump will not stop the industry's march to world conquest.

 Welt am Sonntag:

• EU's Oettinger Detects 'Alarm' in Bond Markets. Recent volatility in government bonds issued by Portugal must be seen as "sign of alarm," EU Digital Economy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger said. Europe "shouldn't send signal that stability pact no longer valid". Governments haven't done enough to balance budget in recent years, now "best times are over". ECB's growth measures are becoming less effective, he also said.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.75% to +.50% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 158.0 +2.0 basis points.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 75.75 -.25 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.11 unch.
• S&P 500 futures -.10%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.22%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (EBIX)/.56
• (FSS)/.24
• (FRO)/.63
• (IPI)/-.11
• (LL)/-.19
• (VRX)/2.62
• (ATML)/.07
• (CECO)/-.06
• (HTZ)/.05
• (WDAY)/-.05

Economic Releases
9:00 am EST

• The ISM Milwalukee for February is estimated to fall to 50.0 versus 50.36 in January.

9:45 am EST

• The Chicago Purchasing Manager for February is estimated to fall to 52.5 versus 55.6 in January.

10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales for January is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.1% gain in December.
  

10:30 am EST

• Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for February is estimated to rise to -30.0 versus -34.6 in January.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone CPI report, Japan Jobless rate, China Manufacturing PMI, Bank of Australia rate decision, JMP Securities Tech Conference, JP Morgan High Yield Conference and the Morgan Stanley Tech/Media/Telecom Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Week Ahead by Bloomberg.
• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on earnings outlook concerns, rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst, commodity weakness, yen strength, global growth fears and technical selling. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• G-20 Affirms No-Devaluation Pledge, to Consult on Currencies. Finance chiefs from the Group of 20 agreed to consult closely on foreign exchange markets and reiterated past pledges to refrain from competitive devaluations. The G-20 members agreed to use monetary, fiscal and structural tools to boost growth, according to a final communique released in Shanghai on Saturday. Underscoring concerns over the limitations of central bank-led stimulus, "monetary policy alone cannot lead to balanced growth," the document said. Leading into the meetings, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney warned counterparts against getting embroiled in a currency war by pushing interest rates too low, while International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde said the effects of monetary policies, even innovative ones, are diminishing. With the U.K. mulling spending cuts, Japan planning a sales tax increase, Germany’s finance minister warning debt-funded growth just leads to “zombifying” economies, and the U.S. constrained by a lame duck president and Republican-controlled Congress, it may fall to China to ratchet up the fiscal firepower. "Investor hopes of coordinated policy actions proved to be pure fantasy," said David Loevinger, a former China specialist at the U.S. Treasury and now an analyst at fund manager TCW Group Inc. in Los Angeles. "It’s every country for themselves."
• Brexit and Refugees Join G-20 Worry List in Draft Communique. The Group of 20 added a potential Brexit and an escalating refugee crisis to its long worry list, even as it argued recent market volatility didn’t reflect global growth momentum. In a draft of the communique obtained by Bloomberg News, the G-20 members agreed to use monetary, fiscal and structural tools to boost growth and calibrate and communicate their policies. Monetary policy alone can’t bring balanced growth, according to the document, which one person participating in the drafting process said would see only minor revisions. Finance chiefs from the G-20 nations agreed to "consult closely" on foreign exchange markets, warning that excessive volatility can hurt financial and economic stability and promised to improve their monitoring of capital flows in an effort to identify potential risks sooner. The group reiterated past pledges to refrain from competitive devaluations. Key economic risks also include escalated geopolitical tensions, a large drop in commodity prices, and volatile capital flows.
• Japan, Not China, Emerges as Currency Worry at G-20 Meeting. China’s currency was expected to be one of the the main topics at this week’s Group of 20 meeting. Instead, Japan’s yen and monetary policy were identified as a source of concern for some officials from the world’s leading economies. "The debate was also about Japan, to be honest -- there was some concern that we would get into a situation of competitive devaluations," Eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem said in Shanghai. Once one country devalues it’s currency, "the risk is very large that another follows and we get into competitive devaluation," Dijsselbloem told reporters.
• Global Slowdown Concerns Policy Makers as Fed, ECB Ponder Rates. (video) Central bankers from the U.S. and Europe said weaker global growth will affect the economic outlook and may have implications for the pace of monetary policy divergence. Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said Friday at a panel discussion in New York that the pace of interest-rate increases in the U.S. may be slower than previously anticipated, as she urged officials across the world to coordinate efforts to increase demand. European Central Bank Executive Board member Peter Praet said at the same event that weaker readings on the European economy are a warning sign. Their comments come as finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 developed and emerging market economies gather in Shanghai to discuss how best to revive the world economy. While U.S. and Chinese officials called for increased government spending, Germany argued that using debt to fund growth just leads to “zombifying” economies.
• Vale(VALE) Relegated to Junk by Moody's in Three-Step Downgrade. Vale SA had its credit rating lowered three levels to junk status by Moody’s on prospects that iron ore and base metal prices won’t recover meaningfully before 2017. Moody’s cut Vale ratings to Ba3 from Baa3, while withdrawing its issuer rating and assigning a Ba3 corporate family rating. The outlook is negative. The action comes a day after the Rio de Janeiro-based company vowed to step up efforts to cut net debt, which rose to $25 billion at the end of last year, as a slowdown in Chinese growth collides with rising supply to push down commodity prices.
• Hedge Funds' Bearish Gas Bets Pay Off With Slide to 17-Year Low. For more than a year, hedge funds have held a bearish position in U.S. natural gas, betting that a ballooning supply glut would hammer prices. They were right. Just before gas futures tumbled to a 17-year low this week, money managers boosted their net-short position in contracts for the fuel by 31 percent. Their bearish bets jumped in the seven days ended Feb. 23 while their long wagers on prices rising were little changed, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.
• Budding Joy Over U.S. Stocks Rebound Marred by Drop in Trading. The budding rebound in U.S. stocks is probably more notable for what it lacks than what it represents in terms of animal spirits. While the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index jumped 1.6 percent in the past five days to cap the biggest two-week surge in a year, a large portion of investors have watched the rally from the sidelines. The gains came amid the weakest volume in 2016, a sign that there is a lack of conviction in the advance following a 10 percent rout that erased more than $2.5 trillion from U.S. equity values.
• SkyBridge Pulls $1 Billion From Paulson, Loeb and Rosenstein. Anthony Scaramucci’s SkyBridge Capital, a high-profile investor in hedge funds, pulled about $1 billion in the fourth quarter from event-driven strategies run by John Paulson, Daniel Loeb and Barry Rosenstein in a shift away from volatile stock markets. SkyBridge disclosed Thursday that it reduced its exposure to a pair of Paulson funds whose value swung widely during the year. The New York-based firm also cut its holding in Loeb’s Third Point Ultra fund and Rosenstein’s Jana Nirvana, according to a regulatory filing by SkyBridge’s public vehicle for allocating investor capital to different money managers. SkyBridge withdrew the money from the event-driven funds to invest with managers who specialize in cash-generating securities, such as mortgage-backed securities and structured debt, according to a person familiar with the matter. SkyBridge was also concerned that equity markets were becoming more volatile, and wanted to lessen its exposure to activist and event managers because they primarily invest in stocks, this person said, requesting anonymity because the information is confidential.
• Regeneron(REGN) Eye Drug’s Advantage Over Roche’s Narrowed in Trial. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc.’s Eylea injection was no more effective in treating a severe eye disease than Roche Holding AG’s Lucentis after two years, according to findings from a new study that may not be enough to knock Regeneron off its dominant perch in the field.

Wall Street Journal:

• Hillary Clinton Defends Obama Record in Alabama Stop.
• Across the South, Marco Rubio Slings Insults at Donald Trump and Vows to ‘Stay in This Race’. “I very rarely try to attack other Republicans,” Mr. Rubio said at Samford University. But “we’ve come to a point now where we have no choice but to point out some of these differences … We cannot allow the conservative movement to be taken away from us.”

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (WMT), (MDT), (FTNT), (CHKP), (PANW) and (ATRO).
• Had bearish commentary on (XLU).

Fox News:

• Clinton wins South Carolina primary, Fox News projects. Hillary Clinton cruised Saturday to an easy victory in the South Carolina Democratic primary, taking back the momentum from Bernie Sanders heading into Super Tuesday – though Sanders will keep his foothold in the race as he continues to rack up delegates and contributions. Fox News projected Clinton's win moments after polls closed. The Democratic front-runner rode to victory on the strength of her support from black voters – her so-called “firewall” that, in the end, held up.
• SE Asian foreign ministers voice concerns on South China Sea. (video)

Zero Hedge:

• Markets At Risk As "Tepid, Uninspiring" G20 Proves Investor Hopes Were "Pure Fantasy".
• Mind The Business Cycle. (graph)
• Day Of Reckoning Imminent.
• A Chilling Forecast For Those With 20/10 Vision.
• Coal Mine Canary Or "Opportunity?" You Decide. (graph)
• Hypocrisy Defined: Hank Paulson Tells China "Let Failing Companies Fail". (video)
• "There’s A Feeling Of Bits Of Ice Cracking All At Once" - This Is The 'Big New Threat' To Oil Prices. (graph)
• "Peak Stupidity" - Where We Go From Here. (graph)
• This Is The Best Year For Gold Since The Hunt Brothers. (graph)
• According To This, 2016 Is Set To Be The Most Volatile Year On Record. (graph)
• Chesapeake's(CHK) AIG Moment: Energy Giant Faces $1 Billion In Collateral Calls.
• US Government Releases 2015 Financial Statements: "Keeps Getting Worse".
• Weekend Reading: Heterogeneous Elucidations.
• Stocks Stumble After Best Gains Since 2014's Bullard Bounce. (graph)

Business Insider:

• 'My party has gone bats--- crazy': GOP lawmakers are freaked out about Trump. Trump "is offensive to an overwhelming majority of people in my district the way he's offensive to me," said freshman Republican Rep. Carlos Curbelo. "Donald Trump does and says things that we teach our children not to do." "Most people understand that Donald Trump is neither a true Republican nor a true conservative. So I think people view his candidacy in isolation, and they're going to support other candidates they happen to agree with or believe in, regardless of party labels," said Curbelo, who's backing Rubio after initially endorsing Jeb Bush.
• The internet is turning against Donald Trump.
• Men are twisting the knife that's already killing shopping malls.
• Facebook’s(FB) new ‘like’ buttons have a hidden agenda.
• These charts show the huge debt mountain that Gulf states have to climb.
• Apple(AAPL) investors should be horrified of this 1 chart.
• Bank of America(BAC) is preparing big layoffs in investment banking and trading. 
• These are the attacks Christie used against Trump in the months before his endorsement.
• US defense officials are worried about North Korea.
• Hillary Clinton wants you to know she'll release her speech transcripts when everyone else does.

Daily Caller:

• The Sad End of Chris Christie's Political Life. That Tuesday night, Mr. Christie lost in New Hampshire, just like anyone could have told him. It had been a long trek, and along the way he’d cannibalized every member of his party, used every oxygen tank, and reached the top. But the top wasn’t the Oval Office in Washington, D.C. he’d once dreamed of, it was a city in Texas. There, in the winter sun, the champion of New Jersey stood in the shadow of Manhattan’s Mr. Trump. Mr. Trump– the man who tried to evict an old New Jersey widow to make room for a limousine parking lot for a soon-to-be-bankrupt New Jersey casino in a New Jersey city Mr. Trump would soon leave behind him. There’s no way the journey would end behind Mr. Trump, Mr. Christie had promised his last backer, a newspaper publisher, two weeks earlier. Joe McQuaid had believed the governor. Mr. Trump’s “fairytale” policies would never work, the governor had told The Daily Caller and a room full of supporters days prior. Those voters had probably believed him too. Standing at the podium, Mr. Christie said he was “proud to be here to endorse Donald Trump”– the “fairytale” candidate he was hitching his White House appointment hopes to. Some fairytales come true. But most don’t.

Focus:

• German Budget Surplus to Be Used Entirely for Refugees. Deputy Finance Minister Jens Spahn told Focus that budget surplus of EU12.1B "reserved" entirely for refugees.

Spiegel:

• IMF Says Greece Faces 'Difficulty' Paying Debt in March. IMF worried that many EU governments are willing to compromise on savings measures imposed on Greece as country struggles with wave of immigrants.

Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 1,946.43 +1.60%

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,946.43 +1.60%

• DJIA 16,654.70 +1.47%

• NASDAQ 4,595.02 +1.82%

• Russell 2000 1,034.73 +2.49%

• S&P 500 High Beta 25.89 +3.65%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 89.97 +4.49% 

• Wilshire 5000 19,990.10 +1.74%

• Russell 1000 Growth 948.23 +1.78%

• Russell 1000 Value 918.16 +1.72%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 523.58 +.3%

• Solactive US Cyclical 119.70 +3.01%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 987.85 +3.36%

• Transports 7,415.75 +1.70%

• Utilities 620.13 +.11%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 79.36 +3.60%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 30.18 -.52%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,080.84 +.05%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,022.88 +.65%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 226,516 +1.28%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -122 -17

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 22.50 -42.34%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 158,987 -15.38%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,840,051 -.77%

• Total Put/Call 1.02 -2.91%

• OEX Put/Call 2.56 +509.52%

• ISE Sentiment 116.0 +5.45%

• NYSE Arms .84 -55.19%

• Volatility(VIX) 20.01 -2.82%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 60.17 -3.20%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 11.36 -2.74%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 12.21 -2.48%

• Smart Money Flow Index 18,259.75 +2.57%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.778 Trillion +.54%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$2.271 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 31.2 +13.2%

• AAII % Bears 31.4 -16.9%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 161.67 +1.28%

• Crude Oil 32.84 +10.3%

• Reformulated Gasoline 101.40 +5.15%

• Natural Gas 1.79 -.88%

• Heating Oil 105.16 +2.16%

• Gold 1,225.80 -.02%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 140.52 +1.55%

• Copper 210.90 +1.39%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 167.33 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 48.29 USD/Ton -.47%

• Lumber 254.60 -2.53%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,005.59 +.24%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -3.4% -30.0 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .2192 -7.63%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 123.01 -.15%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -21.40 +15.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -60.40 -28.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.90 -.9 point

• Fed Fund Futures imply 88.0% chance of no change, 12.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 3/16

• US Dollar Index 98.16 +1.63%
• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,439.23 +.11%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.06 -.74%

• Yield Curve 97.0 -4.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.77% +2.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.450 Trillion +.13%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 20.0 -5.4%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 373.0 +6.7%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 32.65 -.03%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 75.50 -3.85%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 188.35 -1.40%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 85.91 +2.54%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 1,210.83 +.58%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 332.62 -2.27%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 123.89 +.49%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.42% +15.0 basis points

• TED Spread 31.5 -1.5 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 3.75 -2.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -26.0 -3.25 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 1109.40 -8.2%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 2,266.0 -.51%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 115.49 -4.59%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 369.47 -2.47%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 170.0 unch.

• M1 Money Supply $3.108 Trillion -.32%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,076.40 -.70%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 272,000 -1,250

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.7% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.62% -3.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 521.50 -4.29%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 44.2 -.1 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +.90% +20.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $1.73/gallon +.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 325.0 +3.17%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 751.54 -1.4%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 30.0 -14.29%

• Rail Freight Carloads 252,463 -3.2%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +2.9%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +1.9%

Leading Sectors

• Homebuilders +6.1%

• Hospitals +5.5%

• Alt Energy +5.0%

• Gaming +4.5%

• Retail +4.4%

Lagging Sectors

• Biotech +.2% 

• Tobacco -1.5%

• Coal -2.4%

• Education -2.5%

• Airlines -2.5%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (22)

• POWR, NEWP, DRII, TREX, WTW, RDUS, RUBI, DWA, DPZ, CHS, TXRH, MSI, DIN, GTLS, UTX, SNC, USM, CRI, HCKT, RSE, TFX and CPS

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (13)

• CXO, LADR, HAWK, VECO, ARII, VRX, CNL, VSI, CAR, FIT, TRN, ABCO and PTCT

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change