Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Close on Lower Long-Term Rates, Quarter-End Window Dressing, Short-Covering, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.5 -.3%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .51 -22.4%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 57.8 +3.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 188.6 -.2%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.8 -.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 9.4 -.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 173.0 +10.0
  

• Total Put/Call .72 -1.4%

• NYSE Arms 1.11 +11.0%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$108.4M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.98 -.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 273.5 +1.1%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 262 -3
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 72.61 +.13%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 184.2 +.12%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 158.0 basis points +4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.2 -1.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 175.2 +1.6%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 144.0 +7.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 +.15%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -13.75 basis points unch.
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 3.75 basis points -1.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.75 -1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 148.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 721.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 61.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 +.11%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.37% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 105.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.6 euros/megawatt-hour +2.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -29.2 -2.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -16.2 -2.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.9 +2.2 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +22.1% +15.9 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 260.53 -.14:  Growth Rate +14.2% -.1 percentage point, P/E 21.0 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.86% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 328.71 +.10: Growth Rate +22.5% unch., P/E 34.6 +.3
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.04 +8.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .47 -8.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -42.75 basis points (2s/10s) +.5 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.7% -30.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 53.6% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.56% unch.: CPI YoY +3.12% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th FOMC meeting: 57.9%(+1.6 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th meeting: 49.9%(-.1 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +303 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -194 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +190 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my industrial/biotech/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Restaurants -1.1% 2) Retail -.7% 3) Road & Rail -.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• FND, WOR, COR, SBS, CMG, MU, TRML, IP, AS, HIMS, SM, CTRI, LEVI, ELAN, NNE and WBA
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) NKLA 2) LEVI 3) IP 4) WBA 5) HIMS
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) WBA 2) CTRI 3) RXRX 4) AVAV 5) LEVI
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLI 2) SMH 3) XLV 4) XPO 5) XLF

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.0%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Cyber Security +2.3% 2) Internet +1.7% 3) Networking +1.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SUZ, IIIV, STVN, CNXC, S, RH, VKTX, ZS, CRM, SYM, SMCI, JEF, NXT, CAMT, PANW, BBIO, IOT, ZETA, MKC, MRUS, NPWR, CRDO, SNOW, CZR, SDGR, GRND, DESP, CVNA, ZTS, SEDG and ADBE
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ELAN 2) TH 3) LEVI 4) PSNY 5) WOOF

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) KALA 2) VIGL 3) CARE 4) IIIV 5) CNXC
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) IYW 2) XLE 3) XBI 4) VGT 5) PRN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Personal Income for May is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.3% gain in April.
• Personal Spending for May is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in April.
• The Core PCE Price Index MoM for May is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in April.

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI for June is estimated to rise to 40.0 versus 35.4 in May.
  

10:00 am EST

• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence Index final readings.
  

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Services Activity Index for June.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Barkin speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q update, Dallas Fed PCE Index for May, US Baker Hughes rig count, CFTC speculative net positioning reports and the (SIG) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -13.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.0 +.8
  
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 56.7% of Issues Advancing, 40.3% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.47 +47.0%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$1.9M
  
• 57 New 52-Week Highs, 29 New Lows
• 52.0% (+2.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.0 unch.
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 57.5 +2.8%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 239.1 -.08%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,031.6 +.05%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 46.0 (NEUTRAL) +5.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 9.0 +3.2%
  
• Vix 12.7 +1.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .75 +2.7%

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• Wikileaks just deleted over 20,000 leaked Democratic National Committee emails. The Deep State did a deal for a Assange. Now it makes sense. (video)
• Tucker Carlson wins the internet today as he completely ruins a woke liberal reporter in Australia. (video)
  

• @kylenabecker
  

• New House Intelligence Report Reveals How the CIA Committed Election Interference in 2020. "The 51 former intelligence officials’ Hunter Biden statement was a blatant political operation from the start. It originated with a call from top Biden campaign official—and now Secretary of State—Antony Blinken to former Deputy Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director Michael Morell." A joint interim report reveals the CIA was an active participant in the Hunter Biden laptop disinformation campaign, which was carried out by the U.S. government against the American people.

• @gatewaypundit
  

• HERE IT IS: Biden Camp Officially Refuses to Drug Test Joe Biden.

• @libsoftiktok

• Denver Mayor Mike Johnson (D) approved $45 million in funding for migrant programs and cut the police budget by $8 million. Now the @DenCityCouncil is considering a proposal to allow noncitizens to join the police force because the city fell short of its 2024 recruitment goal of 55 officers in its first training session, with only 36 applying. How could this go wrong?!

• @CollinRugg
  

• JUST IN: Venezuelan illegal immigrants who are accused of killing 12-year-old Jocelyn Nungaray, lured her under a bridge where they took her clothes off & raped her for 2 hours. The men tied her hands behind her back while they did the unthinkable. After they were done, the men choked her and dumped her body in a bayou. (video)
• NEW: Prosecutors say 12-year-old Jocelyn Nungaray fought to survive until her last breath, say she left bite and scratch marks on one of the illegal immigrants. 21-year-old Johan Jose Rangel Martinez still had bite marks on his body when he was arrested. Rangel Martinez is accused of raping Jocelyn for two hours before tossing her into a bayou. (video)
• NEW: Jonathan Turley shreds the Supreme Court's decision to allow the U.S. government to demand the removal of 'misinformation' on social media. The Supreme Court ruled that the government’s communications with social media giants about removing Covid-19 "misinformation" did *not* violate the First Amendment. "This is one of the most fundamental issues that we are facing." "It's been called Orwellian by lower court judges. And what the court is saying is that we won't hear you on this issue 'cause you're not the right litigants." (video)
  

• @OilLondonTV 

• Mother and 16 month old baby DENIED entry to United Flight for using the wrong PRONOUNS for flight attendant. “The flight attendant has denied access to us because he said I made a derogatory comment about one of the flight attendants because I didn’t use the right pronoun”. (video)
  

• @catturd2
  

• Again - Dana Bash, who's moderating the CNN debate, her husband was one of the 51 treasonous traitors who lied about Hunter's laptop being Russian misinformation.

• @wideawake_media

• "I cannot think of a more dangerous initiative than this." Nigel Farage on the globalist push to roll out digital ID, CBDCs and a cashless society—globally—by 2030. "If we're not careful, we head towards a Chinese-style social credit system, where unless you go along with the views of the day, you become a non-person." (video)
• Chinese drone swarms. After witnessing the horrific footage of killer drones being used in the Ukraine-Russia war, this is absolutely terrifying. Can you imagine the precision-targeted destruction that could be caused by a swarm like this, at relatively low cost? (video)
  

• @WallStreetSilv
  

• Remember ... (pic)
  

• @stillgray  

• This is the CEO of Tractor Supply discussing how to virtue signal over George Floyd. “We are committed to listening, to learning and implementing change”. (video)

• @TheChiefNerd

• Kansas AG Kris Kobach: 'We Have Information Regarding Pfizer That Indicates a Clear Effort to Conceal & Mislead'. "Pfizer knew of multiple side effects...and did not disclose. And in some ways, made statements that were contrary. It's more than just a failure to say that there are side effects. They made statements saying there are no side effects in particular cases, when in fact they knew there were side effects and they had data indicating those side effects." (video)

• @TaraBull808

• Walmart order from 2 years ago: Total Cost for 45 items = $126.67 REORDERING FROM WALMART TODAY: Total Cost for the same 45 items = $414.39 Is this why so many people are suffering in Biden's America & voting TRUMP? (video)
  

• @Liz_churchill10

• NOTHING to see here. Rep. Thomas Massie reveals that 3 FDA ‘Vaccine Experts’ were fired after asking for more time to research the side-effects of the ‘Covid Vaccine’ in children. They were fired so the Biden Regime could immediately mandate them. (video)
  

• @EndWokeness

• Trump just released a heartbreaking four MINUTE compilation of the awful crimes committed by Biden's illegal aliens. ALL OF IT IS JUST FROM JUNE ALONE. (video)

• @CitizenFreePress
  

• Tucker Carlson reveals the truth about Mike Pompeo. 'Pompeo threatened to arrest me if I revealed the CIA killed President Kennedy. Pompeo also plotted to assassinate Julian Assange.' (video)

• @RedpillDrifter
  

• BOHEMIAN GROVE: AMERICA'S MOST EVIL RETREAT. Full Documentary. Epic brand new documentary on the Satanic occult gathering Bohemian Grove. Première June 24, 2024. 5 months in the making. 8 years of research. Almost 4 hours long. Enjoy! (video)
  

• @unusual_whales

• The typical salary required nationwide for homeownership is now $106,500 — a 80.5% increase from the $59,000 required just four years ago, according to Zillow.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,011,672 Reports(+1,127 from prior report) Through May 31st, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.5 -.5 basis point

• China Sovereign CDS 68.25 -.75 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 107.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.34%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 59.0 +5.3%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.0 +.7%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.28%.

• S&P 500 futures -.35%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.48%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.