Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -1.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -3.1% 2) Computer Hardware -3.0% 3) Gambling -2.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• AEO, DCI, IEP, SJM, QXO, PVH, SYM, BBWI, HROW, POWL, FL, PDCO, NCNO, WOLF, ANF, NBIX and SMCI
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) OIH 2) BBWI 3) FL 4) EDR 5) LI
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) LI 2) SMCI 3) LFCR 4) FL 5) PDD
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLU 2) ARKK 3) KRE 4) XLI 5) AMLP

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.2%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Defense +.7% 2) Regional Banks +.7% 3) Insurance +.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CHWY, AVAV, AOSL, BOX, AVPT, AMBA, SCSC, SMTC, PODD, AHCO, LIVN and JWN
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) APO 2) JWN 3) AMBA 4) ANF 5) CHWY

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CHWY 2) AVAV 3) AMBA 4) SMTC 5) JWN
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) XLF 3) XLE 4) XLV 5) SOXX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (FLWS)/-.27
• (AEO)/.38
• (BBY)/1.16
• (BF/B)/.45
• (BURL)/.96
• (CPB)/.62
• (DG)/1.79
• (OLLI)/.78
• (TITN)/.29
  

After the Close: 

• (ADSK)/2.00
• (DELL)/1.71
• (GAP)/.41
• (LULU)/2.94
• (MRVL)/.30
• (MDB)/.49
• (ULTA)/5.47
• (OXM)/3.04
• (SSYS)/-.05
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• 2Q GDP revisions.
• The Advance Goods Trade Balance for July is estimated at -$97.9B versus $96.8B in June.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for July is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in June.
• Retail Inventories MoM for July is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.7% gain in June.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated at 232K versus 232K the prior week. 
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1870K versus 1870K prior.
  

10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales MoM for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +4.8% gain in June.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bostic speaking, 7Y T-Note auction, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Deutshe Bank Tech Conference, (DDD) annual meeting, (DOCS) annual meeting and the (SHW) investor meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -19.2% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.3 +.5
  
• 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
• 38.4% of Issues Advancing, 58.8% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.51 +22.9%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$133.8M
  
• 197 New 52-Week Highs, 21 New Lows
• 60.0% (-1.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 64.0 -2.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 54.7 +.6%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 224.5 -.21%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,557.2 -.67%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 52.0 (NEUTRAL) unch.
  
• 1-Day Vix 15.9 +79.9%
  
• Vix 16.6 +7.7%
  
• Total Put/Call .92 -7.1%

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 92.0 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 57.5 unch.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 102.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.54%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 54.4 -.06%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.7 +.45%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures -.17%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.37%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Restaurant Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Light
  

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.5 -4.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .37 -37.2%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 55.8 +3.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 177.6 -.14%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.8 +.34%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 12.6 -1.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 126.0 -16.0
  

• Total Put/Call .93 +1.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.18 +24.2%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$86.9M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.4 -.12%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 296.8 +1.0%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 244 -2
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.1 -1.4%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 160.9 -1.0%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 138.0 basis points +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 92.8 -.8%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 158.5 +.19%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 138.26 +.04%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.1 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -21.75 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -22.5 basis points -3.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -.75 +.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 132.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 696.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 67.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 -.03%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.10% -3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.44%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 38.7 euros/megawatt-hour +2.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -28.1 +3.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -56.3 -.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -12.7 +1.5 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(477 of 500 reporting) +9.4% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 264.92 +.10:  Growth Rate +16.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.2 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.68% +3.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +26.3% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 344.24 +.13: Growth Rate +28.3% unch., P/E 32.3 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .73 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .73 unch.
  
• US Yield Curve -7.0 basis points (2s/10s) +5.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +1.99% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 69.3% -2.3 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.64% unch.: CPI YoY +2.56% -3.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.15 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th FOMC meeting: 45.9%(+3.7 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th meeting: 43.8%(-1.2 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +51 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -5 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +77 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my consumer discretionary/industrial/tech sector longs and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long