Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +1.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.25 -.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 62.25 -.25 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 107.2 USD/Metric Tonne +1.8%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.6 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 66.8 +1.0%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.3 -.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.34%

• S&P 500 futures -.05%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.03%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Mid-East Regional War Fears, Sector Rotation, Profit-Taking, Construction/Gambling Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.6 +.12%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.40% -4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 106.4 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 44.9 euros/megawatt-hour -3.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.2 -2.1 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -27.0 -3.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.8 -.6
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(496 of 500 reporting) +8.2% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 270.73 +.29:  Growth Rate +13.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.4 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.58% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +33.3% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 384.32 +.78: Growth Rate +22.7% +.2 percentage point, P/E 33.9 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .90 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.51 +12.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 6.75 basis points (2s/10s) +4.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.33% +4.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 33.9% -1.0 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.94% unch.: CPI YoY +2.70% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 67.5%(-4.6 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 52.9%(+2.0 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +325 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +760 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +23 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower:  On losses in my financial/tech/utility/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -1.6%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Construction -2.3% 2) Video Gaming -2.0% 3) Computer Services -1.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• MRUS, TAC, IOT, DOCU, PLTR, CRS, RXST, TEM, CTAS, LIF, OMC, CMCSA, CRDO, NBIS, CAVA, RDW, RIOT, APP and AGIO
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) RVNC 2) ASO 3) XLI 4) WMB 5) BBAI
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BIOA 2) AMD 3) HUMA 4) TMUS 5) ZETA
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLY 2) SOXX 3) XRT 4) XLE 5) XBI

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.3%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +3.8% 2) Alt Energy +3.5% 3) Steel +2.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• BILI, FUTU, PTVE, ZK, BEKE, YMM, HSY, PDD, ASAN, JD, RIVN, ATAT, NWL, NTES, CELH, HTHT, WHR, BABA, EH, SILV, WB, BIDU, CAMT, LI, ACAD, CLPT, SERV, SQM, TRNO, TAL, WDAY, RBRK, FOXF, CERT, ODD, IPG, ASTS, BP, WDS, RIO, RGNX, AMBA, FSLY, AI, SKY, SWBI, RDDTM REXR, CRESY, TEO and MDB
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) XLI 2) FRSH 3) BRZE 4) TIGR 5) UAMY

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) REAL 2) KOD 3) NXPL 4) ANGO 5) NIO
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XLK 3) VGT 4) IYC 5) MAGS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ASO)/1.28
• (AZO)/33.56
• (GIII)/3.28
• (OLLI)/.57
• (UNFI)/-.02
  

After the Close: 

• (PLAY)/-.40
• (GME)/-.03
• (SFIX)/-.14
  

Economic Releases

6:00 am EST

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for Nov. is estimated to rise to 95.3 versus 93.7 in Oct.

8:30 am EST

• Final 3Q Non-Farm Productivity/Unit Labor Cost readings.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (WIT) 2-for-1
• (ETR) 2-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 3Y T-note auction, OPEC meeting, weekly US retail sales reports, WASDE report, weekly API crude oil stock report, Barclays Tech Conference, Raymond James TMT/Consumer Conference, Scotiabank Tech Conference, American Society of Hematology Meeting, Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference, (GEV) investor meeting, (MSFT) annual meeting, (PANW) general meeting and the Oppenheimer Midwest Summit could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +35.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.0 -.6
  
• 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
• 53.0% of Issues Advancing, 45.4% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .55 -50.5%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$25.2M
  
• 117 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
• 63.7% (+2.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 59.0 +1.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 66.7 +.2%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 249.9 +.19%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,044.2 -.26%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 51.0 (NEUTRAL) -2
  
• 1-Day Vix 6.6 -9.4%
  
• Vix 13.7 +7.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .83 -1.2%