Stocks Surging into Final Hour on More Dovish Fed Commentary, Lower Long-Term Rates, Dollar Weakness, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.2 +.2%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.32% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 100.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 44.1 euros/megawatt-hour +2.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.2 -2.6 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -5.9 +1.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.4 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +21.2% -5.1 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 270.85 -.51:  Growth Rate +13.5% -.2 percentage point, P/E 22.0 +.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.55% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 386.68 +.14: Growth Rate +23.3% unch., P/E 34.7 +.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .38 +8.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.17 +15.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 20.5 basis points (2s/10s) -4.75 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.08% -8.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 24.2% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% -10.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 48.3% (+3.3 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 48.2%(+2.0 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +485 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +37 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +243 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/financial/consumer discretionary/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 755% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.6%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Pharma -.7% 2) Shipping +.3% 3) Oil Service +.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ODFL, XPO, X, GPCR, NN, BNED, RXST, MESO, NVO, SCHL and IIPR
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CNC 2) NTR 3) EXE 4) TSEM 5) CAG
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) X 2) OP 3) CELH 4) WGO 5) SCHL
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLP 2) XLC 3) XLB 4) ARKK 5) KBWB

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +2.1%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +5.2% 2) Digital Health +3.9% 3) Semis +2.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RGTI, CLW, IONQ, RCAT, AVO, QUBT, DNA, SEDG, SERV, OUST, BTDR, AAOI, SKYT, XMTR, SIRI, HSAI, RDW, INOD, MSTR, YY, CRGX, NX, EXPI, FNKO, GRAL, SPIR, OKLO, RNDM, ARQQ, AHCO, PLTR, NTGR, CUK, PPTA, ARQT, SUPV, NCLH, ARQT, DXCM, QTRX, TEM, GTLB, BBAR, MTCH, REPL, WS, IDYA, JACK, OSCR, BLFS, VKTX, VIK, KNF, PII, BCAX, FMC, VCYT, MTZ, CYTK, KRC, CAL, CURB, BIRK, PI, AXGN, CRGY, VSTS, PODD, AB, LASR, KNTK, AVGO, ACVA, ABNB, FND, DECK, OXY, ALHC, BRKL, GRND, EXR, BHLB, KKR, SWK, IRM, RCL, VNO, HII, MNDY, TGLS, AIN, SITC, SA and PSA
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CNC 2) CE 3) JCI 4) EWCZ 5) CRVS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) HUMA 2) QBTS 3) AADI 4) IONQ 5) CCL
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLI 2) VGT 3) XLE 4) LABU 5) FTEC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Nov.
• Durable Goods Orders for Nov. is estimated to fall -.3% versus a +.3% gain in Oct.
• Durables Ex Transports for Nov. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in Oct.
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for Nov. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.2% decline in Oct.
  

10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for Nov. is estimated to rise to 665K versus 610K in Oct.
• Conference Board Consumer Confidence for Dec. is estimated to rise to 113.0 versus 111.7 in Nov.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (CRVL) 3-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 2Y T-Note auction and the Dallas Fed PCE for Nov. could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +36.0% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.0 -3.3
  
• 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
• 80.6% of Issues Advancing, 17.7% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .51 -23.9%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$160.2M
  
• 19 New 52-Week Highs, 160 New Lows
• 53.2% (+5.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 32.0 +10.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 66.1 +4.5%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 252.7 -.1%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,998.2 +.02%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 28.0 (FEAR) +1.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 16.9 -27.4%
  
• Vix 19.5 -19.1%
  
• Total Put/Call .97 -7.6%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.25 +.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 65.75 unch.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 101.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 -.08%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 63.1 -.1%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.6 -.7%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.5%

• S&P 500 futures -.31%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.51%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.