Tuesday, May 31, 2005

Stocks Finish Modestly Lower on Growth Concerns and a Rebound in Oil Prices

Indices
S&P 500 1,191.50 -.61%
DJIA 10,467.48 -.71%
NASDAQ 2,068.22 -.36%
Russell 2000 616.71 -.03%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,778.43 -.47%
S&P Barra Growth 575.74 -.72%
S&P Barra Value 611.31 -.50%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 584.50 -.70%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 720.28 -.75%
Morgan Stanley Technology 478.84 -.53%
Transports 3,599.58 -.65%
Utilities 363.33 +.23%
Put/Call .97 +19.75%
NYSE Arms 1.55 +25.94%
Volatility(VIX) 13.29 +9.38%
ISE Sentiment 192.00 +12.28%
US Dollar 87.76 +.94%
CRB 300.83 -.02%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 52.14 +.56%
Unleaded Gasoline 146.94 -.40%
Natural Gas 6.43 +.94%
Heating Oil 145.19 +.42%
Gold 419.10 -.85%
Base Metals 120.86 -.97%
Copper 145.10 +.52%
10-year US Treasury Yield 3.98% -2.16%

Leading Sectors
Airlines +1.11%
Hospitals +.88%
I-Banks +.78%

Lagging Sectors
Biotech -.98%
Computer Hardware -1.20%
Oil Tankers -1.71%

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Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on DIS, BSX, MSFT and BC.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- United Airlines and the Machinists union reached an agreement on concessions from about 20,000 bad handlers, reservation agents and customer-service workers, the final labor accord the carrier sought to help exit bankruptcy.
- Walt Disney’s ABC broadcast television network said advance advertising sales for next season rose about 30% to $2.7 billion after ABC gained viewers with hits including “Desperate Housewives.”
- US Treasuries rose the most in three months after an index of Chicago-area business fell more than forecast and a reading of inflation fell, pushing 10-year yields below 4% for the first time since February.

Financial Times:
- Chinese publicly traded companies should prepare for the sale of unlisted, state-owned shares.

Nihon Keizai:
- Yahoo Japan Corp. will work with Nikko Cordial Securities and E*Trade Securities to begin brokerage business as early as August.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Internet longs and Base Metal and Energy-related shorts. I did not trade in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market was mildly negative today as the advance/decline finished slightly lower, most sectors declined and volume was light. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly higher into the close. Overall, today’s market action was slightly negative. I expect economic data tomorrow to come in mixed, resulting in another mildly negative day for stocks. An ISM reading below 50, which I expect, would make it very hard for the Fed to continue raising rates at the current pace. I continue to expect 10-year T-note yields to test 04 lows over the coming weeks.

Stocks Quietly Lower Mid-day on Growth Worries

Indices
S&P 500 1,193.99 -.40%
DJIA 10,494.60 -.45%
NASDAQ 2,069.58 -.30%
Russell 2000 617.42 +.08%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,797.58 -.31%
S&P Barra Growth 577.48 -.42%
S&P Barra Value 612.08 -.37%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 585.85 -.47%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 721.34 -.60%
Morgan Stanley Technology 478.98 -.50%
Transports 3,607.96 -.42%
Utilities 365.35 +.08%
Put/Call 1.08 +33.33%
NYSE Arms 1.74 +41.34%
Volatility(VIX) 13.11 +7.82%
ISE Sentiment 209.00 +22.22%
US Dollar 87.65 +.82%
CRB 300.38 -.17%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 51.65 -.39%
Unleaded Gasoline 146.20 -.90%
Natural Gas 6.33 -.55%
Heating Oil 144.60 +.01%
Gold 418.40 -1.02%
Base Metals 120.86 -.97%
Copper 145.50 +.80%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.00% -1.60%

Leading Sectors
Airlines +1.86%
Hospitals +.82%
I-Banks +.38%

Lagging Sectors
Steel -.90%
Oil Service -.93%
Oil Tankers -1.44%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher mid-day on gains in my Internet longs and Base Metal and Energy-related shorts. I have not traded today and the Portfolio is still 50% net long. The tone of the market is slightly negative as the advance/decline line is modestly lower, sector performance is mixed and volume is very light. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly higher. Today’s overall market action is neutral, given last week’s gains, global growth concerns and mixed US economic data. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close as slowing growth concerns are offset by lower-long term interest rates and better consumer sentiment. NYSE short interest as a percentage of total shares reached 2.4% as of today, an all-time high. I continue to see a "negativity bubble." Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach, who has been predicting interest rates would soar for several years, is now changing his tune. He is now saying the 10-year T-note yield will hit 3.5% within the next 12 months. Roach seems to agree with my view of a continuing fall in commodity prices as a result of slowing global demand. As I stated a few months ago, I believe the new breed of "perma bears" will begin switching arguments from inflation to deflation over the coming months.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Russia isn’t ready to join the WTO, US Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez said.
- A provision added to a federal bill that would reform government-sponsored enterprises could lead to as much as $1.6 billion of tax-exempt debt for affordable-housing and community-development projects, the Bond Buyer reported.
- Iraqi President Jalal Talabani said today that the trial of ousted dictator Saddam Hussein for crimes against humanity may begin in two months.
- Frontline Ltd., the world’s biggest oil-tanker company by capacity, reported its smallest profit gain in three quarters as sales growth barely increased, raising concern that global shipping markets have peaked.
- French Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin quit as President Jacques Chirac moves to win back confidence in this government after losing a referendum on the European Union’s constitution two days ago.
- AIG lowered five years of profit by $3.9 billion to correct improper accounting.
- The US Supreme Court unanimously overturned accounting firm Arthur Andersen’s conviction for obstructing an investigation into energy trader Enron Corp.
- W. Mark Felt, the second in command at the FBI in the early 1970s, has revealed in the July 2005 issue of Vanity Fair magazine that he was “Deep Throat,” the source who helped Washington Post reporters Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein uncover the Watergate break-in.
- Morgan Stanley Chief Economist Stephen Roach said he is no longer bearish on bonds, and that yields on 10-year Treasuries may fall to 3.5% over the next year.
- The euro fell to a seven-month low against the US dollar on concern France’s rejection of the EU constitution will slow the region’s economic integration.
- US Treasuries are rallying, commodities are dropping and the US dollar is rising on France’s rejection of the EU constitution.

Wall Street Journal:
- DreamWorks Animation SKG miscalculated sales for “Shrek 2” because the company didn’t understand the fast changing pace of the DVD market.
- Shares of Bed Bath & Beyond are being snapped up by hedge funds that know a bargain when they see one.
- US doctors are testing whether so-called smart drugs such as Novartis AG’s Gleevec and Genentech’s Avastin will help children fight cancer as well as adults.
- UnitedHealth Group, Aetna and other US health insurers are marketing policies for the 45 million Americans without insurance offering cheaper programs with fewer benefits.
- Purdue Pharma LP, which makes the OxyContin painkiller, and wholesaler HD Smith plan to use radio-frequency identification tags to record the movement of drugs.
- The US housing market isn’t in a “bubble” destined to burst, according to Brian Wesbury, chief investment strategist at Claymore Advisors.
- Wal-Mart caters to a growing number of Hispanic shoppers at its stores by offering a free magazine called Viviendo and printing monthly ad circulars in English and Spanish.
- GM and Ford are focusing on building sales in India, the world’s fastest growing auto market.

Chicago Sun-Times:
- Illinois lawmakers are poised to limit the awards from medical lawsuits over concerns that rising costs for malpractice insurance are prompting doctors to leave the state.

Dow Jones Newswires:
- Samsung Electronics raised its forecast for 2005 worldwide handset sales because of “robust” shipments during the first quarter.

USA Today:
- More US states are increasing their minimum wages, pushing hourly rates above $7 in some and reducing the role of the federal minimum wage.

Financial Times:
- A “poisonous” regulatory environment in the US played a part in the fall of the value of mergers and acquisitions in the financial services industry.
- Ameritrade Holding is in “advanced talks” to buy Toronto-Dominion Bank’s TD Waterhouse brokerage.

Hurriyet:
-Turkey’s probable entry into the European Union was the fifth most-cited reason by French voters who rejected the EU constitution in the May 29 referendum.

Confidence Rebounds, Chicago-area Weaker

- Consumer Confidence for May rose to 102.2 versus estimates of 96.1 and a reading of 97.5 in April.
- Chicago Purchasing Manager for May fell to 54.1 versus estimates of 61.4 and a reading of 65.6 in April.

BOTTOM LINE: US consumer sentiment unexpectedly rose in May for the first time in four months. Rising stock prices, a booming housing market, lower long-term interest rates, lower gas prices and an improving labor market boosted confidence. The present situation component of the index rose to 116.7 from 113.8. The % of consumers who saw jobs as plentiful rose to 22.6% from 20.4% in April. The percentage expecting more jobs to be available six months from now increased to 14.9% from 14.0%. Those expecting fewer jobs fell to 15.9% from 18.4%. The percentage expecting to buy a home in the next six months dropped to 3.5% from 4.1%. However, those expecting to purchase an auto increased to 7.6% from 5.8%. Confidence in New England experienced the greatest regional gain, rising 24.2% to 92.40 from 74.40. We have likely seen the lows in sentiment for the year.

The Chicago PMI fell in May to the lowest level in almost two years. The employment component of the index fell to 54.7 from 62.3, while the new orders index declined to 57.9 from 71.0. On the positive side, the prices paid component fell to 54.3 from 66.1. The prices paid index has now plunged by 38.9% since November 30, 2004. I expect the ISM Manufacturing Index to fall below expectations tomorrow, as well.

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Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- France rejected the European Union's constitution in a national referendum, dealing a blow to President Jacques Chirac and European integration.
- China said it canceled export tariffs on 81 textile products amid a growing row with the US and the European Union over a surge in shipments since global quotas ended on Jan. 1.
- UK Prime Minister Tony Blair signaled he may scrap plans for a referendum on adopting the European Union constitution after French voters rejected the treaty.
- The US trade representative's office said it will ask the WTO to rule that European government loans to airplane maker Airbus SAS are illegal, setting up the biggest-ever dispute in WTO history.
- Crude oil is falling for the first time in six days on speculation US inventories will be sufficient to meet demand from refiners during the second half of the year.
- American International Group plans to restate five years of earnings today, and its correction of accounting flaws may make it easier for the company to settle a lawsuit with NY AG Spitzer.
- The Russian government will probably seize the rest of OAO Yukos Oil's assets, regardless of who is elected to the company's board.
- Norwegian support for joining the European Union fell to the lowest since 2001 in May, dropping for a third consecutive month, according to a poll by Sentio-Norsk Statistikk.
- Saudi Arabia's King Fahd Bin Abdul Aziz al-Saud is "doing well" and his medical tests are proceeding in a "normal way" a day after he was admitted to a hospital.
- Wal-Mart Stores said May sales at US stores open at least one year rose about 2.5% as shoppers spent more on groceries.
- Walt Disney's ESPN has told the NHL it won't exercise a contract option to televise games for the 2005-06 season.
- The European Central Bank may lower its 2005 growth forecast for the third time in six months and leave its key interest rate unchanged as business confidence slumps, surveys of economists showed.
- The euro fell to a seven-month low in Asia and had its biggest fluctuation of any currency on concern the rejection of the EU Constitution will slow the region's economic integration.

Wall Street Journal:
- Deutsche Bank AG, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, BNP Paribas SA and Societe Generale SA are among European banks considering an offer for Germany's Commerzbank AG.
- Oil companies in Canada are racing to build pipelines between northern Alberta and the Pacific Coast amid increasing demand for the country's oil from China and the US.
- Hewlett-Packard will use Intel's Itanium chip in its NonStop computer line.

Barron's:
- The $1 trillion hedge-fund industry may face slowing investments and smaller fees as performance declines because there are too few investment opportunities and a shortage of talented fund managers.

New York Times:
- BAE Systems Plc and Northrop Grumman are vying to win a contract to supply US commercial airliners with systems designed to foil heat-seeking missiles.
- The US Chamber of Commerce, the Heritage Foundation, Families USA, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer and 19 other groups are working together to devise a way for uninsured Americans to get health coverage.
- Companies such as closely held Winergy are seeking permission to build wind-turbine farms off the New Jersey coast as an alternative to energy from coal-fired power plants.
- ABC's "Good Morning America," the No. 2 US morning news show, is stealing viewers and forcing changes at rival NBC's "Today" show, the most profitable program on television.
- US FBI agents are making a bigger effort to go undercover to find terrorists and disturb their plans.

San Francisco Chronicle:
- Mobile-phone sales rose 17% to 180.6 million units worldwide in the first quarter from the year-earlier period, driven by consumer demand for camera phones and special offers.

Charlotte Observer:
- US Airways Group said Wellington Management agreed to invest $150 million in the airline after it acquires America West Holdings Corp.

Detroit Free Press:
- General Motors is expected next week to announce the expansion of its employee discounts to all consumers as the automaker seeks to winnow the number of unsold vehicles on dealers' lots.

Star-Ledger:
- The perception that New Jersey is steeped in political corruption is more widespread than at any time in recent memory.

New York Post:
- New York Police Commissioner Ray Kelly wants the city to install about 400 surveillance cameras on high-crime streets.
- Zoom Systems, a San Francisco technology company, is marketing vending machines that can dispense consumer items including cell phones, Apple Computer iPods and portable DVD players.

AP:
- A Florida physician and a martial-arts expert in New York have been arrested for conspiring to aid terrorists.
- Wines prices at $11 and higher are selling better than less expensive bottles.

Financial Times:
- Advanced Micro Devices may introduce its first processors operating with two cores for desktop PCs tomorrow to compete with Intel.
- RadioShack's mobile phone products business is "a very long-term, sustainable" part of the No. 3 US electronics chain's future, citing an interview with CEO Edmondson.

Sunday Times:
- French rejection of the European Union constitution may see investors sell the euro and could lead to low economic growth and high inflation, or stagflation, for the region, citing economists.

AFP:
- Polling booths opened today in Beirut as Lebanon began its first general election since Syria withdrew its soldiers after a 29-year military presence.
- Al-Qaeda leader in Iraq Abu Musab al-Zarqawi has been "lightly" wounded, citing a voice message attributed to Zarqawi and posted on the Internet.

Korea Herald:
- GE's finance unit is in final talks to invest $399 million in Hyundai Card Co., becoming the second-largest shareholder in the South Korean card issuer.

Economic Observer:
- China will scrap a 20% tax on stock dividends from June 1 as part of an attempt to bolster the nation's share markets.

Yomiuri newspaper:
- A regional Japanese government will ban sales to minors of the video game "Grand Theft Auto III," made by a US company Rockstar North and distributed in Japan by Capcom Co.

Weekend Recommendations
Bulls and Bears:
- Had guests that were positive on FDO, WCI, SLR, AIG, mixed on LPNT, TSO, CREE, XOM, NSS and negative on DUK, VLO.

Forbes on Fox:
- Had guests that were positive on XLE and mixed on SBUX, CSCO, DPZ, NKE, CI.

Cashin' In:
- Had guests that were positive on PTR, BIIB, HLT, mixed on OEH, PSD, DO and negative on ELN, GG, GT.

Cavuto on Business:
- Had guests that were positive on DELL, FL and mixed on BA.

Business Week:
- Named its Top 100 Small Companies.

Barron's:
- Had positive comments on PLT, GS and AZR.
- Had negative comments on AMLN, RHAT, CNWK, DJTE, PSUN, HLF, NUS, GS and A.

Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on FRNT, EBAY and LIZ.
- Reiterated Underperform on CVH and HRB.

Night Trading
Asian indices are unch. to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.02%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.06%.

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HOV/1.61
SHLD/.40
TEX/.51
SMTC/.15
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AGR/A 1-for-10
SRX 2-for-1
TMX 2-for-1
UNH 2-for-1

Economic Releases
10:00 a.m. EST
- Chicago Purchasing Manager for May is estimated to fall to 61.8 versus a reading of 65.6 in April.
- Consumer Confidence for May is estimated to fall to 96.0 versus 97.7 in April.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are mostly higher on strength in exporting shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed as profit-taking offsets a rising dollar and lower long-term interest rates. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.