Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Healthcare Providers -3.3% 2) Defense -2.0% 3) Airlines -2.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PLCE, LTHM, OKTA, HA, ESTC, HCSG, SE, DDD, BID, ALRM, CTL, WDAY, GPS, SPLK and GWRE

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AET 2) SYMC 3) GPS 4) OKTA 5) CRM

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) HA 2) BBBY 3) OKTA 4) ASNT 5) GWRE

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.8%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilders +1.6% 2) Shipping +.2% 3) Agriculture +.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• NITE, ASND, BXG, WRE, CSII, STNE, ULTI, MYOK, CISN, WUBA, MEOH, VYGR, WSFS, OMER, BILI, RGNX, QURE, NCNA, EVH, CTRP, VCYT, LNG, RUN, PII, EGAN, VYGR, EGAN, EVH, WRE, AAOI, WSFS, RUN and EB

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) WDAY 2) OKTA 3) SYMC 4) MCD 5) CRM

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ASND 2) BXG 3) MYOK 4) ETN 5) TGT

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -.5% Below 100-Day Average
• 0 Sectors Rising, 11 Sectors Declining
• 36.5% of Issues Advancing, 60.6% Declining
• 96 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
• 50.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 55.5%
• Vix 15.5 +14.2%
• Total Put/Call .93 +4.5%
• TRIN/Arms 1.41 +41.6%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• U.S., China Are Close to a Trade Deal That May End U.S. Tariffs.

• Here Are the S&P 500 Bull Cases That Get Help From a Trade Pact.  

• Yuan Strength Seen Ebbing as Economy Woes Eclipse Trade Progress.

• European Central Bankers Are Feeling Trump-Style Political Heat.

• May Accused of Buying Brexit Votes With $2 Billion to Poor Towns.    

• The Yen Is Still Sliding, Despite the Bulls. 

• Stocks, U.S. Futures, Yuan Climb on Trade Optimism. Asian stocks rose with U.S. futures, and the yuan and Australian dollar advanced after a report that the U.S. and China are close to a trade deal that may end American tariffs. The dollar and Treasuries dipped. Shares in Tokyo, Australia and South Korea gained as the latest sign of a breakthrough on trade negotiations lifted risk appetite. Beijing has made it clear in a series of recent talks with the U.S. that removing the tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods from day one was necessary to finalize any deal, according to people familiar. Meanwhile, weighing on the dollar was a warning against excessive strength in the greenback from U.S. President Donald Trump.
  Japan’s Topix index rose 0.9 percent as of 9:07 a.m. in Tokyo. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 0.4 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index added 0.8 percent. Hang Seng Index futures slid 0.2 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 Index added 0.4 percent.

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.  

• U.S.-China Deal, Dollar Strength, Aussie Credit Squeeze: Eco Day.

• Bond Traders Bet Yield-Curve Steepening Has More Steam. 

Wall Street Journal:

• Shale Companies, Adding Ever More Wells, Threaten Future of U.S. Oil Boom.

• Millennials Are the Therapy Generation.

• Weapon Makers Declare War on Drones.

• Investors Scale Back Inflation Bets, Signaling Doubts About Growth.

Fox News:

• Clinton says country is in 'full-fledged crisis' during speech in Selma to mark 'Bloody Sunday'.

CNBC:

• China is reportedly offering lower tariffs on some U.S. products as trade deal inches closer.
  

• The biggest change in global fuel regulations since leaded gas went away could cause price shocks.

• This chart suggests stocks will see a winning month.

Zero Hedge:    

• Here We Go Again: US, China "In Final Stages Of Completing Trade Deal".

• Greenpeace Co-Founder Rips "Pompous Little Twit" Ocasio-Cortez As "Garden-Variety Hypocrite" On Climate.

• Morgan Stanley: Q1 Will Mark The Trough Of This Mini-Cycle... And Central Banks May Resume Tightening.

• Faith No More: America's Trust In Mainstream Media Hits Rock Bottom.

• Echoes Of 2016: MSNBC Slanders Sanders With Outright Lies After Saturday Speech.

• Senate Poised To Reject Border Emergency, Provoking Trump's 1st Veto.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.0 -2.0 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 48.75 -.75 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.29 -.02%.

• FTSE 100 futures +.41%.

• S&P 500 futures +.36%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.58%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (IPAR)/.24

After the Close:

• (CTRP)/-.04

• (CRM)/.55

Economic Releases 
10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.8% gain in Nov.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PPI report, Morgan Stanly Energy/Power Conference and the (EFX) investor meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters. 

• Week Ahead by TheStreet.

• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.

• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on dovish FOMC commentary, China trade deal hopes, diminished global growth fears, technical buying, yen weakness and oil strength. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:    

• Tories Deliver Brexit `Peace Terms' to May, Sunday Times Says.

• Pound Optimism Growing as Banks Take No-Deal Risk Off the Table.

• South Korea, U.S. Decide to End Biggest Joint Military Exercises.

• Oil Slump Catches Funds Off Guard in Longest Bull Run Since 2012.

• Quadriga Crypto Mystery Deepens With ‘Cold Wallets’ Found Empty. 

• Hottest Nasdaq Run Since 2012 Gets Fuel From Tech Earnings Surge.

• Square Inc.(SQ) Co-Founder Tristan O’Tierney Dies at 35.

Wall Street Journal: 

• The Problem for Small-Town Banks: People Want High-Tech Services.

• Lyft Kick-Starts a Banner Year for Technology IPOs.

• Women Drive the Labor-Force Comeback.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (RGNX), (QURE), (ABBV), (AVGO), (SLG), (MPC), (PSX), (TROW), (JPM), (MGTX), (BMRN), (NLSN) and (SRPT).

Fox News:

• High school wrestler forfeits state final rather than fight girl.

• MICHAEL KNOWLES: AOC is leading Democrats to defeat in 2020.

• NICOLE SAPHIER, M.D.: What I tell my teens about weed, as a mom and doctor.

CNBC:

• Trump says strong US dollar, rate hikes are hurting economy.

• US equities move to bull confirmed while US dollar struggles.

• Children’s Place to buy Gymboree brand, while Gap snags Janie and Jack chain.

Zero Hedge:

• In Stunning Interview, Bill Gross Reveals Asperger's Diagnosis, Endorses MMT And Praises Ocasio-Cortez.

• America's 10 Largest Corporations Haven't Issued A Single Bond In Over A Year: Here's Why.

• CNN Analyst And Former Obama Admin Official Compares Trump's CPAC Speech To Hitler.

• Trump's Strangest And Most Memorable Moments From Marathon CPAC Speech.

• Arctic Air Mass To Blast US, Will Roil Power Markets Next Week

• US Auto Sales Tumble To 18 Month Low As SUV Demand Hits A Brick Wall.
• Uber vs Lyft: Here Are The Highlights From Lyft's IPO Filing.
• Hillary-Bernie Feud Escalates Over "Fundamental Differences".
• Money Machines - An Interview With An Anonymous Algorithmic Trader.
• Walmart Replacing Overnight Shifts With "Labor-Saving Machines"; Eliminates Store Greeters.

• Construction Begins On 30-Foot-High San Diego Border Wall.

• 9 Artificial Intelligence Trends You Should Keep An Eye On In 2019.

• Trump Asks China To "Immediately Remove All Tariffs On Agricultural Products".

• "I Love Otto" Tweets Trump Amid Furor Over "Misinterpreted" Remarks.

• Nasdaq Extends Longest Win Streak Since 1999 As Macro Data, Earnings Crash.

Business Insider:

• Amazon(AMZN) could be gearing up to reveal Walmart, Kroger, and Aldi's worst nightmare.

The Telegraph:

• Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Europe cannot expect the world to rescue its economy again as recession gathers.