Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:        

• The New Covid-19 Variant Is Already Disrupting Travel Around the World.
• More Businesses Will Stand Up to China After the Peng Shuai Outcry.  
• Fastest Inflation in Euro’s History Set to Raise Pressure on ECB.
• Mexico to Require Visas for Brazilians Amid Migration Surge.
  
• Enbridge Plan to Keep Oil Pipelines Full Rejected by Canadian Regulator.
• Trading Desks Expected a Quiet Holiday. That’s Not What They Got.
  
• Oil’s Black Friday: Algos, Options Turn Tumble Into a Crash.  
• OPEC+ Leans Toward Ditching Output Hike as Oil Sinks on Virus.
• Black Friday Discounts Fade as Demand, Inflation Power Ahead.  
• Parts of Southern California Still in Dark as Power Cuts Continue.
  
• Thinner Crowds Ease Retail Supply Woes: Black Friday Update.  
• Biden Talked Inflation with Fed, Upcoming Picks to Share Concern.  
• Biogen Stock Plunges 40% Since June on Alzheimer’s Drug Turmoil.  
• Fed’s Bostic Plays Down Risk From New Variant, Is Open to Faster Taper.
• ‘A Big Shock:’ the Market’s Covid Angst Explained in Charts.  
• Traders Unwind Rate-Hike Bets as New Covid Fears Spread.
• Prince Andrew Accuser Says Claims Not Voided by Epstein Release.

Wall Street Journal:

• The Omicron Variant Panic. Markets fall, but the biggest danger is more government lockdowns.
• Biden’s Economic Plans Collide With Inflation Reality.
• Alibaba Empowers Business Units to Be More Agile as Challenges Mount.
• Ukraine President Says Russia Is Backing a Planned Coup.
• Black Friday Shopping Is Back, but the Doorbusters Aren’t.
• On the Front Lines of the Supply-Chain Crisis. 
• Biden’s Covid Death Milestone. Despite the Vaccines, More Americans have died of the virus in 2021 than in all of 2020.
• Vaccine Mandate Legal Challenges Muddy the Waters for Employers Preparing to Implement Rules.

IG:

• Weekend Markets Trading Live.

CNBC:

• Dow tumbles 900 points for worst day of year on fears of new Covid variant, S&P 500 drops 2%.
• Biden recommends reforms to oil and gas drilling but stops short of ban.
• Vaccine makers move quickly against new omicron Covid variant, testing already under way. Pfizer and BioNTech said they expect more data from lab tests in two weeks at the latest. “These data will provide more information about whether B.1.1.529 could be an escape variant that MAY REQUIRE AN ADJUSTMENT of our vaccine if the variant spreads globally,” the companies said. Pfizer and BioNTech said they can adapt their mRNA vaccine within six weeks and start shipping batches within 100 days if an escape variant is identified.
• Black Friday loses some luster as shoppers turn out to hunt scarce deals.
• Peloton has sued Lululemon in feud over cycle maker’s new apparel line.
• Oil drops 13% in worst day of 2021, breaks below $70 as new Covid variant sparks global demand concerns.
• South Africa health minister says travel bans ‘unjustified,’ as world reacts to new Covid variant.
• Car shopping for Black Friday deals is very different this year. Here’s what to know.
• Bitcoin enters bear market territory as risk assets plunge on new Covid variant.

MarketWatch.com:          

• The U.S. stock market suffers ugly Black Friday selloff. Here are the biggest losers (and the winners).
  
• WHO warns world leaders against knee-jerk reaction to coronavirus variant from South Africa as U.K. and EU impose travel bans.
  
• Major cryptocurrencies tumble amid concern about new COVID variant.
  
• Opinion: On a very Black Friday for investors, many Reddit Apes were talking about buying and HODLing.

Fox News:

• Biden's words come back to haunt him as he restricts travel over COVID strain.
• Trump slams Biden for mishandling key issues and addresses potential 2024 bid.
• State slammed by the liberal media for handling of COVID touts stunning stat.

Newsmax:    

• WHO Skips Over Greek Letter 'Xi' for New Variant .
  
• Rep. Tenney: China 'Worse Than the Soviet Union' of the 1980s.

Nature: 

• Why US coronavirus tracking can’t keep up with concerning variants. (April 7) Laboratories supported by the US government have doubled the rate at which they are sequencing SARS-CoV-2 genomes over the past two months. Still, the number of genomes that the country shared in the online genome repository GISAID in March represented only 1.6% of its positive COVID-19 cases that month.

Zero Hedge:

• A Scared Nu World: Here's What We Know About The COVID "Omicron" Strain.
• China Launches "Combat Readiness" Drill Near Taiwan As US Delegation Arrives To Island For 2nd Time This Month.
• Professor Who Defended Pedophiles Announces Resignation.
• Amazon Shelling Out $3,000 Signing Bonuses, Chartering Ships, In Unprecedented Holiday Push.
• Soros, Druckenmiller, & The Mundell-Fleming Trilemma.
• Inflation Stretching Budgets Thin For Americans As They Rethink Holiday Buying.
• After Today's "Crazy" Meltdown, What Is Oil's Fair Value? Goldman Has The Answer.
• Watch: California Town Declares Independence From "Dictatorship Powers" Of State, Federal COVID Mandates.
• 26 More Cases Of Heart Inflammation Linked To Pfizer Jab.
• Vaccine Mandates Pressure Businesses, Stoke Division Amongst Employees, Executives Say.
• New York ER Closes As Employees Refuse To Comply With Vaccine Mandate.
• Deep Discounts Are Harder To Find This Black Friday Amid Snarled Supply Chains.
• The Metaverse Is A Scam: We're Being Herded Into The Matrix.
• 'Red Friday' - Stocks Suffer Worst 'Black Friday' Selloff In 70 Years.
• WHO Classifies "Omicron" As A "Variant Of Concern"; South Africa Lashes Out At Travel Restrictions.
• With VVIX In Full "Yikes" Mode, Negative Convexity "Accelerant Flows" Are Now In Play.
• California Port Truckers "Drowning" In Supply Chain Inefficiencies.
• Passengers On Last Flights Back To UK From South Africa Faced Few, If Any, Restrictions.
• LA Firefighter Being "Investigated" For Literally Wiping His Ass With Vaccine Mandate Letter. 
• Former Pro Calls For "Investigation" After Another Soccer Player Suddenly Collapses.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• All Four Botswana “Nu” Variant Patients Were Fully Vaccinated.
• Yesterday’s Conspiracy Is Today’s Medical Journal Headline: NEJM Explains How COVID Vaccines May Produce Spike Proteins that Lead to Myocarditis.
• MUST SEE LIST of Colleges and Universities Offering Therapy For Students Affected By “Racist” Rittenhouse Verdict.
• New COVID Virus Variant Identified in Africa Is “Highly Transmissible and Vaccine-Resistant”.
• “Those Who Play with Fire Get Burned” – China’s Message to Joe Biden for Including Taiwan in an Online Call.
• Filipino Basketball Star Roider Cabrera Suffers Cardiac Arrest and Collapses – Is Rushed to Hospital After Losing Consciousness (VIDEO).
• THIS TIME THERE’S VIDEO: Adama Traore Is Latest High-Profile European Soccer Star to Collapse on the Pitch During European Match.
• Phoenix Officials Push to Defund the Police With Vaccine Mandates – Hundreds Expected To Quit – Police and Firefighters Ask AG Brnovich to Step In.
• “It Would Be Crazy” To Kill Myself: Newly Released Federal Bureau Of Prisons Records Reveal That Jeffery Epstein was “Future-Oriented and Psychologically Stable” Before He Allegedly Committed Suicide In His Cell.

The Epoch Times:

• China’s Aggression Is Changing the Nature of Sovereignty.
  

EuroWeekly:

• EU’s most vaccinated country returns to ‘state of calamity’. Around 87 per cent of the Portuguese population of just over 10 million inhabitants is fully vaccinated, and the rapid implementation of vaccination in the country has been widely praised.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 654,412 (US) Reports Through November 12, 2021.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Stocks Substantially Lower into Final Hour on Global Virus Lockdown Fears, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Concerns, Emerging Market Debt/Currency Worries, Commodity/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 27.5 +47.9%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,105.0 -1,021.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.21 -.88%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.6 unch.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.1 n/a

• ISE Sentiment Index 125.0  +26.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .91 +1.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.18 +34.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.68 +9.3%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 428.70 +7.2%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 66.81 +7.1%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 131.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 93.5 +7.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 221.27 +9.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 32.9 -.86%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 22.5 -.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 13.5 +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -32.0 -3.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  69.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.75 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.24 -1.2%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% -2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 98.0 -6.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 97.10 USD/Metric Tonne -4.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 26.4 -.1 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -14.6 +1.0 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -15.0 +.4 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.55 -7.0 basis points
• 97.5% chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting, 82.4% chance of no change at March 16th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 188 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -22/100K people
• 35% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) -4.0 percentage points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -566 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -121 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +8 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my industrial/commodity/tech/transport sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and took profits in my commodity longs
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +45.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• 1 Sector Rising, 10 Sectors Declining
• 11.3% of Issues Advancing, 86.4% Declining
• 13 New 52-Week Highs, 168 New Lows
• 56.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.3%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,180.0 -948.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,580 +.71%
  
• Vix 26.8 +44.3%
• Total Put/Call .98 +8.9%
• TRIN/Arms 1.08 +22.7%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 88.25 +2.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 50.0 +.5 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.72 -.3%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,036.0 -92.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.1 +3.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.17%.

• S&P 500 futures -.61%

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.34%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases 

• None of note
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Money Supply report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 1:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing

mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                    

• Supply-Chain Crisis Only Getting Worse With China's 7-Week Port Quarantine.  
• Bank of Korea Raises Rates Again, Sees Faster Inflation.
  
• Asian Stocks Steady; Dollar Gauge Holds Advance: Markets Wrap.
• Asia’s Oil Refining Renaissance Is Grinding Into Reverse Gear.  
• Saudi Prince Snubs Biden and Reasserts Control of Oil Market.  
• Oil Steady After OPEC Says Reserves Release to Bloat Surplus.
• Texas Ban of School Mask Mandates Is Reinstated During Disability Appeal.  
• Michigan Lawmakers Ask for Help; Europe Eyes Curbs: Virus Update.
• The Anti-Work Brigade Is Coming for Amazon on Black Friday.
• Love Affair With Riskiest Assets Turns Turbulent on Fed Fears.  
• JPMorgan Started Damage Control as Soon as Dimon Made China Joke.  
• South Florida and New York See Apartment Rents Surge More Than 30%.

Wall Street Journal:

• Chinese Official Accused of Sexual Assault Played Key Role in Setting Up Beijing 2022 Olympics.
• Three Men Convicted in Shooting Death of Ahmaud Arbery.
• Justice, Not Revenge, for Ahmaud Arbery and Kyle Rittenhouse. The purpose of a trial is to assess the facts in each case, not to settle scores between identity groups.
• Fed Officials Debated Inflation Concerns, Taper Pace at Meeting.
• Store Workers to Black Friday Shoppers: Don’t Blame Shortages on Us.
• OPEC Weighs Shift in Oil Policy After Crude Release.
• More Chips Will Be Made in U.S. Amid a Global Spending Surge.
• AT&T, Verizon Propose 5G Limits to Break Air-Safety Standoff.
• As American Gasoline Prices Soar, Some Blame Ethanol.

IG:

• Weekend Markets Trading Live.

CNBC:

• U.S. blacklists dozens of Chinese tech firms citing national security concerns.
• Cathie Wood says her firm is testing a more aggressive strategy that would be ‘Ark on steroids’.
• Williams-Sonoma sales will benefit from bigger holiday gatherings even after the guests go home.
• Justice Department tells prosecutors to prioritize cases against crimes on flights.
• Op-ed: Holiday shopping season is here, and these retail stocks offer a host of opportunities.

MarketWatch.com:          

• U.S. has already seen more COVID deaths in 2021 than 2020 before vaccines were available, as experts again warn pandemic is not over. 
• These stores will stay open on Thanksgiving — but many others are closed. Here’s a handy list.  
• Opinion: The stock market has had trouble holding new highs, but it’s entering a bullish period.

Fox News: 

• Waukesha suspect’s mom regrets bailing him out before parade attack: ex-girlfriend.
• Violent, racist social media history of Waukesha suspect revealed.
• Wikipedia users try to change Waukesha 'parade car rampage' entry to 'parade incident'.
  
• Critical Race Theory taught at many of USA’s 50 most elite private K-12 schools, study shows.

Newsmax:   

• US Thanksgiving Air Travel Set to Be Busiest Since Pandemic Began.
• RFK Jr.: Our Freedoms Being 'Strip-Mined by Elitists'.
• Trump Attorneys Claim Biden Colluding With Jan. 6 Commission.
• Rep. Murphy: Dems Pausing Over 'Enormity' of Spending Bill.

Zero Hedge:

• Pfizer Employee Stole 12,000 Files Including COVID-19 Vaccine Secrets, Lawsuit Claims.
• COVID-19 Made Democracies More Authoritarian And Authoritarian Regimes Even Worse.
• Support For More Gun Control Falls, But Partisan Divide Grows.
• Crash-Hedge Prices Are Surging.
• Over 600 Google Employees Sign Manifesto Against COVID Vaccine Mandate.
• Tourists Are Flocking To Florida In Greater Numbers Than Before Pandemic.
• Hyperinflation In Turkey: Wine Prices Up 15% In One Day, Chicken And Cheese Up 10%.
• Five Trump-Russia 'Collusion' Corrections We Need From The Media Now.
• Biden Mulls Sending Extra Weapons & Trainers To Ukraine Amid Dubious Reports Of "Russian Invasion".
• Apple Sues Israeli Spyware Firm, Begins Notifying Victims Of State-Sponsored iPhone Hacks.
• Biden To Restart Trump's "Remain In Mexico" Policy.
• Fake It Till You Make It? Biden Energy Secretary Fumbles Two Simple Questions In One Day.
• If The Chaos In Our Streets Is This Bad Now, How Bad Will It Get In 2022 And Beyond?
• Stocks, Bonds, & The Dollar Bid As Fed Admits Stagflation Fears.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• NYC Man Out on Bail with Prior Gun-Related Conviction Walks Up to 13-Year-Old Boy, Shoots Him in the Neck.
• Joe Biden Fans Flames, Says Arbery Verdict “Not Enough” to Ensure Equal Justice.
• Salvation Army Wants White Donors to Offer “Sincere Apology” for Their Racism.
• Bail For Christmas Parade Killer Darrell Brooks Set at $5 Million; 6th Homicide Charge Will Be Filed Later This Week With Several Other Charges Being Reviewed.
• Pro Football Player J.J. Watt – a Waukesha Native – Offers to Pay All Funeral Costs for Victims of Christmas Parade Massacre.
• Dr. Robert Malone: Children Who Have Had COVID Are at Higher Risk of Adverse Effects If You Vaccinate Them (VIDEO).
• James Comey’s Daughter, Involved in Lost Video of Jeffrey Epstein’s Alleged First Suicide Attempt, Now On Legal Team Prosecuting Ghislaine Maxwell (VIDEO).
• What Global Warming? Nancy Pelosi Purchases $25 Million Mansion in Florida.
• Sheffield United Star John Fleck Collapses on Pitch During Tuesday Match and Rushed to the Hospital – TV Live Feed Cut when Announcer Asks If He’s Had COVID Jab. 
• Milwaukee DA John Chisholm Is to Blame for Waukesha – He Ignores Crimes, Harasses Republicans, and Set Low Bail that He Knew Would Set Killers Free.

The Epoch Times:

• US Blacklists a Dozen More Chinese Entities Over Military Links.
• JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon ‘Regrets’ China Joke.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 654,412 (US) Reports Through November 12, 2021.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).