Monday, March 07, 2005

Monday Close

Indices
S&P 500 1,225.31 +.26%
Dow 10,936.86 -.03%
NASDAQ 2,090.21 +.95%
Russell 2000 643.86 -.17%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,071.69 +.27%
S&P Barra Growth 589.19 +.20%
S&P Barra Value 631.69 +.32%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 592.53 +.16%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 783.01 -.16%
Morgan Stanley Technology 481.09 +1.43%
Transports 3,876.13 +1.18%
Utilities 363.27 +.42%
Put/Call .76 -7.32%
NYSE Arms .77 -30.0%
Volatility(VIX) 12.26 +2.68%
ISE Sentiment 169.00 +11.18%
US Dollar 82.79 +.33%
CRB 309.37 +.07%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 53.86 -.06%
Unleaded Gasoline 150.50 -.02%
Natural Gas 6.75 +.54%
Heating Oil 148.30 -.13%
Gold 435.50 -.07%
Base Metals 129.97 -.24%
Copper 149.30 -.23%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.30% unch.

Leading Sectors
Gaming +2.30%
Networking +1.97%
Semis +1.88%

Lagging Sectors
HMOs -.88%
Commodity -1.13%
Iron/Steel -1.25%

After-hours Movers
ABRX +4.04% on strong 4Q report.
FFIV +3.4% after saying it will replace National Oilwell in the S&P 400 Mid-cap.
CCRN -7.8% after meeting 4Q estimates and lowering 1Q outlook substantially.
LSRI -4.0% on disappointing 4Q report.
TXN -3.14% after lowering 1Q revenue forecast.
DKS -2.86% after beating 4Q eps estimates, missing 4Q revenue estimates and lowering 1Q outlook.

Detailed Market Summary
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
Futures Recap
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
PM Market Call
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
- Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Outperform on DTV.
- Wells Fargo: Raised CWTR to Buy, target $35. Raised TLB to Buy, target $38.
- Banc of America: Advised betting the British pound will decline against the US dollar, saying expectations will recede that the Bank of England is going to raise interest rates.
- Merrill Lynch: Recommended investors cut their holdings of Brazilian bonds after a recent rally.

After-hours News
US stocks finished mostly higher today as gains in technology shares mostly offset weakness in commodity-related stocks. After the close, Japan’s Fair Trade Commission ruled Intel Corp. violated anti-monopoly laws by pressuring computer makers to use its chips exclusively, the Daily Yomiuri reported. Growth in US consumer installment credit accelerated more than expected during January on greater demand for credit card, auto and other personal loans, the Federal Reserve reported. Texas Instruments said first-quarter sales and profit will be at the low end of forecasts as demand for chips used in televisions falls and clients work off inventory, Bloomberg said. Seagate Technology, the world’s largest maker of computer disk drives, forecast third-quarter profit of .36/share, exceeding analyst estimates, on demand from consumer electronics and storage systems companies, Bloomberg reported. Laughter may help prevent heart disease, the No. 1 cause of death in the US, according to a new study that test participants’ blood pressure as they watched films that made them laugh, Bloomberg said. Circuit City Stores said it has rejected a $3.25 billion takeover from Highfields Capital Management LP, Bloomberg reported.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished substantially higher today on gains in my alternative energy, networking and semi longs. I did not trade in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 125% net long. The tone of the market deteriorated modestly from morning highs as the advance/decline line finished slightly higher at daily lows, sector performance was mixed and volume was decent. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower into the close. Technology stocks outperformed throughout the day and commodity-related stocks underperfomed. Overall, today’s market action was pretty good as most major US indices consolidated recent gains. The significant outperformance by the Nasdaq was a positive. I would like to see this index break out of its recent trading range before shifting the Portfolio further into higher-beta shares. My trading indicators are now giving all-out Buy signals for the first time since they began giving Sell signals in early January. While US stocks may continue to consolidate recent gains in the near-term, I still believe the rally that has occurred over the past few weeks has further to run.

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