Wednesday, March 16, 2005

Wednesday Close

Indices
S&P 500 1,188.07 -.81%
Dow 10,633.07 -1.04%
NASDAQ 2,015.75 -.94%
Russell 2000 622.92 -.62%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,713.37 -.84%
S&P Barra Growth 570.61%
S&P Barra Value 613.20 -.77%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 577.09 -.75%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 765.80 -1.39%
Morgan Stanley Technology 460.82 -.91%
Transports 3,757.52 -1.54%
Utilities 356.57 -.69%
Put/Call 1.04 +25.30%
NYSE Arms 1.05 -22.98%
Volatility(VIX) 13.49 +2.59%
ISE Sentiment 136.00 -1.45%
US Dollar 81.61 +.01%
CRB 322.42 +.60%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 56.57 +.19%
Unleaded Gasoline 155.00 +.11%
Natural Gas 7.23 +.53%
Heating Oil 159.50 +.23%
Gold 443.90 -.07%
Base Metals 131.48 +.67%
Copper 150.50 -.07%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.50% unch.

Leading Sectors
Wireless +.29%
Energy +.24%
Oil Service +.13%

Lagging Sectors
Defense -1.36%
Papers -1.71%
Iron Steel -1.79%

After-hours Movers
VIA/B +7.4% after Sumner Redstone said he may break up the company because investors aren’t placing a high enough value on the businesses.
NFI +4.2% after management reaffirmed forecast for 05 dividend.
AMLN +16.5% after saying US regulators approved its Symlin diabetes drug.
WWCA -7.7% after disappointing 4Q results.
CNCT -5.80% after announcing that it intends to raise approximately $125M through an offering of convertible senior notes through a Rule 144A offering.

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
Futures Recap
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
PM Market Call
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
- Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Outperform on AMLN and TAP.

After-hours News
US stocks finished lower today on worries over high energy prices, concerns over General Motors’ difficulties and technical deterioration. After the close, Eastman Kodak will restate results for the past two years because of errors in the accounting of income taxes, pensions and retirement benefits, Bloomberg reported. The US Senate rejected a proposal backed by Democrats and a few Republicans aimed at making it tougher to win congressional approval for new tax cuts, Bloomberg said. JP Morgan agreed to pay $2 billion to settle claims by investors that the lender should have known Worldcom’s books were fraudulent when it helped sell $5 billion in company bonds, Bloomberg reported. The US Senate voted to allow Exxon Mobil Corp. and other companies to tap into an estimated 6.3 billion barrels of oil in a small part of Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Bloomberg said. Crude oil surged to an all-time high, as a promise of increased output from OPEC failed to ease concern that demand is rising faster than supply, Bloomberg reported. Harley-Davidson passed GM in stock market value for the first time today after GM forecast its largest quarterly loss since 1992, Bloomberg said. Qwest Communications plans to sweeten its takeover offer for MCI Inc. for a third time to pressure MCI to scrap an agreement to be bought by Verizon Communications, Bloomberg reported. Steven Leuthold, who oversees $1 billion for Leuthold Weeden Capital in Minneapolis, sees a three- or four-year bull market in US metals stocks, Bloomberg said.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Energy-related longs, Chinese ADR shorts, Networking shorts and Software shorts. I took profits in a few longs and shorts in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 25% net short. The tone of the market weakened further into the afternoon as the advance/decline line finished near its daily lows, almost every sector declined and volume rose. Energy-related stocks outperformed today and cyclical shares underperformed substantially on worries over higher energy prices and slowing global growth. Finally, most measures of investor anxiety rose, which is a positive. Overall, today’s market action was negative, considering good economic reports, recent losses and a fall in interest rates. While an oversold bounce could occur at any time, I continue to expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower until energy and interest rates stabilize. As well, measures of investor anxiety will likely need to rise further before a tradable bottom is in place. Economic reports over the next two days could spur further selling in bonds near-term.

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