Monday, June 06, 2011

Monday Watch


Weekend Headlines

Bloomberg:

  • Papandreou Faces Growing Backlash as Last EU Bailout Premier. George Papandreou is the last man standing among the euro-area leaders who needed a handout after Jose Socrates’s defeat in Portuguese elections yesterday. For Papandreou and the investors and taxpayers who will share the cost of a beefed-up bailout for Greece, questions are increasing about whether he will complete a term that runs until 2013 and enact the budget cuts and asset sales that his benefactors demand. The Greek premier, who has won assurances that international lenders will make the next payment of last year’s 110 billion-euro ($161 billion) rescue, will aim to quell growing dissent this week within his Socialist party -- known as Pasok -- over deeper budget cuts and asset sales as voters’ patience wears thin and public protests mount. “The coming week may well test the seams of Pasok in parliament and could prove a challenge too much for Papandreou,” said Jens Bastian, a visiting economist at St. Antony’s College, Oxford University in England. “It is a make or break situation for his leadership of the party and the government.”
  • Slowing U.S. Growth Prompts Optimists to Question Durability of Recovery. A string of disappointing economic data capped by last week’s jobs report is prompting even some of the more optimistic economists to question the durability of the U.S. recovery. While analysts such as Stephen Stanley of Pierpoint Securities LLC and Michael Feroli of JPMorgan Chase & Co. still see growth strengthening in the months ahead, they voiced concern that the lull in the economy may prove prolonged, leaving it more vulnerable to external shocks or policy missteps.
  • OPEC Overshadowed by Qaddafi in Most-Hostile Meeting Since 1990 Gulf War. OPEC ministers meeting in Vienna this week will find themselves supporting opposing camps of a military conflict for the first time in 21 years, with hostilities in Libya complicating an agreement on oil quotas. Not since Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1990 has the producer group gathered with some nations giving financial and military support to a movement seeking to topple the government of a fellow member. While Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi is trying to quash a rebellion in a country that holds Africa’s largest crude reserves, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates are backing the insurgents.
  • Commodity Bubbles Caused by Speculators Need Intervention, UN Agency Says. Commodity markets need international oversight, more transparency and intervention to deflate bubbles because increasing speculation means prices are no longer driven by supply and demand, the United Nations said. Increased investment in commodity markets has encouraged “herding behavior” and creates bubbles, the UN’s Conference on Trade and Development said in a report published today. Anticipation of the global economic recovery played a “disproportionate role” in higher commodity prices, it said. “Prices can move far from levels justified by the fundamentals for extended periods, leading to an increasing risk of price bubbles,” the UN said in the report. “Due to these distortions, commodity prices do not always provide correct signals about the relative scarcity of commodities.” The UN’s Food Price Index neared a record set in February last month as commodity futures gained. Corn on the Chicago Board of Trade and silver have more than doubled in the past year and gold is up 27 percent. Rice is up 32 percent. The “financialization” of commodity markets that’s increased since 2004 has led to a lack of “price discovery” that farmers and miners use to make hedging decisions, according to the UN report. “Market participants make trading decisions based on factors that are totally unrelated to the respective commodity, such as portfolio considerations, or they may be following a trend,” the UN agency said. “The price discovery mechanism is seriously distorted.” Providing more timely data on fundamentals, information about market participants, especially in Europe, increasing position limits and banning proprietary trading by financial institutions that are involved in making hedging decisions for their clients are ways to solve problems associated with speculative investments in commodities, the UN said. Introducing a tax system that slows financial market activities and more government involvement in trading is needed to ensure traders are considering supply and demand fundamentals when investing, it said. Study organizers who interviewed 22 market participants reported “widespread herd behavior,” the agency said. “Physical traders, in particular, emphasized that the activities of financial players have strong effects on commodity markets and sometimes impair the functioning of commodity futures for hedging,” according to the report.
  • Tepco Slumps to Record Low on Radiation Spike. Tokyo Electric Power Co. fell to a record low after reports that radiation levels surged at its crippled Fukushima plant and the president of Japan’s largest stock exchange said the utility should be liquidated. The owner of the crippled Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear plant plunged as much as 28 percent to 206 yen, the most since the utility known as Tepco starting trading in 1974. The stock traded 24 percent lower at 218 yen at 11 a.m. in Tokyo and was the biggest decliner in the Topix Electric Power & Gas Index. Radiation readings inside the No. 1 reactor building spiked to the highest level yet, almost three months after the disaster started, Kyodo News reported June 4, citing data from Tepco. In a separate report, the Asahi newspaper cited Tokyo Stock Exchange President Atsushi Saito as saying that the utility should undergo restructuring similar to Japan Airlines Co., which filed for bankruptcy protection in 2010.
  • Funds Boost Bullish Commodity Bets Amid Improving Global Growth Prospects. Funds boosted bets on rising commodity prices to the highest in four weeks, led by copper, amid signs that the global economic recovery will remain resilient and boost demand for raw materials. Speculators raised their net-long positions in 18 commodities by 7.3 percent to 1.26 million futures and options contracts in the week ended May 31, government data compiled by Bloomberg show. That’s the highest since May 3. Copper holdings more than doubled. A measure of bullish agriculture bets also climbed as adverse global weather curbed crop production.
  • Lead Smelters in China May Cut Output as Demand Slows, Regulation Tightens. Lead smelters in China, the world’s largest producer and consumer, may idle capacity as demand slows amid a power shortage and as the nation clamps down on polluting units, according to Beijing Antaike Information Development Co. “Lead demand has been weak and while we haven’t heard of smelters cutting output, many have brought forward their annual maintenance shutdowns, which is essentially the same thing,” said Hu Yongda, an analyst at state-owned Antaike. He didn’t give an estimate of how much capacity may be affected. Reduced Chinese demand may accelerate a decline in prices in London this year as consumption is forecast by the International Lead and Zinc Study Group to trail output for a fourth year. Moves to tighten rules on production of so-called e-bikes and lead-acid batteries may cool demand for lead, Zhu Yan, an analyst at Xiangyu Futures Co., said from Shanghai. “The fundamentals for lead are looking quite bleak at the moment, with the announcements about the electric bicycles and battery makers,” Zhu said from Shanghai.
  • House Demands Obama Explain Military Mission in Libya Amid 'War Fatigue'. The U.S. House of Representatives, reflecting what one Republican termed “war fatigue” along with puzzlement over the U.S. military’s role in Libya, is demanding a fuller explanation for the mission from President Barack Obama. In a bipartisan vote, the House yesterday adopted Speaker John Boehner’s resolution that directs Obama to describe “in detail” the U.S. “security interests and objectives” for supporting the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s bombing campaign against Libyan dictator Muammar Qaddafi. The resolution, approved 268-145, was an alternative to Ohio Democrat Dennis Kucinich’s proposal to force the end of U.S. support for the mission in 15 days.
  • Palmer Ends Fourth Try at $3.6 Billion Resourcehouse IPO as Investors Balk. Resourcehouse Ltd., the iron ore and coal company controlled by Australian billionaire Clive Palmer, pulled its planned initial public offering in Hong Kong for a fourth time, citing negative market conditions.
  • IMF Agrees to $3 Billion for Post-Mubarak Transition. Egypt and a visiting International Monetary Fund mission agreed to a $3 billion loan as the North African country seeks to fund its widening budget deficit after a popular revolt earlier this year. The 12-month loan is part of wider international support pledges for Egypt, where the turmoil that accompanied the uprising that led to the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak has hurt revenue from tourism and industrial output.
  • Airline Profits Forecast Cut 54% by IATA on Japan Quake, Rising Fuel Costs.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Violence Flares Up at Israeli Border. Violence along the border between Syria and the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights escalated, claiming casualties on Sunday, as Israeli soldiers opened fire on demonstrators in two locations who sought to march across the frontier on the anniversary of the outbreak of the 1967 Arab-Israeli war. Syria's state news agency said 23 people were killed and more than 350 were injured. Israeli officials accused Syria of backing the protests to distract attention from its repression of weekslong antiregime protests, and said Lebanese authorities avoided a flare-up by declaring the border a closed military zone.
  • Drone Attacks Split U.S. Officials. Fissures have opened within the Obama administration over the drone program targeting militants in Pakistan, with the U.S. ambassador to Pakistan and some top military leaders pushing to rein in the Central Intelligence Agency's aggressive pace of strikes.
  • Staying on Boards After Humble Exit. Many CEOs Who Leave Under a Cloud Remain as Directors Elsewhere, With Some Paid Handsomely.
  • Exchange-Traded Derivatives Trades Surges in First Quarter - BIS. Trading volumes on international derivatives exchanges, measured by the notional amount of traded contracts, increased 21% on the quarter during the first quarter of 2011, the Bank for International Settlements said late Sunday. The rise to $581 trillion came from a growth in activity "in all market segments except foreign exchange," the BIS said in its Quarterly Review. Open interest, also measured in notional amounts, expanded by 24% from the fourth quarter 2010.
  • Goldman(GS) Plans to Fight Back Against Senate Report. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., trying to counter a Senate subcommittee report that is fueling investigations and suspicion of the firm, plans to accuse the subcommittee of drastically overstating Goldman's bets against the housing market in 2007, people familiar with the situation said.
  • Helping Chips to Sip Power. A team of Silicon Valley veterans is claiming they can reduce power consumption in computer chips by 50%, potentially extending the battery life of portable devices and helping chip manufacturers keep pace with giants like Intel Corp.
  • Feds to Biotech Firms: Shut Up. Medicine will suffer if Washington controls the flow of scientific information. A federal judge sentenced the former head of a biotech company to six months of home confinement this spring and fined him $20,000. His offense? Issuing a single press release about a drug.
  • China, Patents and U.S. Jobs. A new report suggests better intellectual property protection by Beijing could create 2.1 million American jobs.
Business Insider:
Zero Hedge:
LA Times:
denverpost.com:
  • Construction Important to Recovery, But Struggles Could Drag Colorado Down. If Colorado's economy is battered and bruised after more than three years of recession and tepid recovery, the state's construction industry is decimated. The sector lost 60,000 jobs during the past three years — a reduction of more than a third, and almost half of Colorado's total job loss of about 130,000. The contraction worsened in recent months, sapping momentum from a delicate turnaround for the state and diminishing one of its biggest employment bases. Combined with related sectors including real estate sales, mortgage lending and the manufacture and retail of building products, construction has an outsized economic impact in Colorado.
TwinCities.com:
  • Big Money Moves Into the Midwest Grain Trade. For rural farm co-ops, it's definitely a new era when East Coast hedge funds, Asian corporations and investors for billionaire George Soros come a-courting. Across the Midwest, well-heeled outside investors are on the prowl to acquire the hard assets of U.S. agribusiness.
Reuters:
  • Iraq Says Supports OPEC Output Hike to Meet Demand. Iraq supports an increase in OPEC output if a production hike is needed to meet rising global demand for crude, Deputy Prime Minister Hussain al-Shahristani told Reuters on Saturday. OPEC oil ministers will meet on June 8 in Vienna to decide on output policy. Oil prices were being pushed by unrest in countries like Libya and not by actual low supplies, Shahristani said.
  • Iran Backs Arab Uprisings Unless Pro-U.S. - Khamenei. Iran backs all Muslim uprisings except those stirred up by Washington, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Saturday, a stance that explains Tehran's lack of support for anti-government protesters in ally Syria. Addressing a crowd commemorating the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Khamenei said the leader of the 1979 Islamic Revolution had predicted events in the Middle East over the last few months where Arabs have risen up against oppressive regimes. Non-Arab, predominantly Shi'ite Muslim Iran relished the fall in February of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, a U.S.-backed secularist who made peace with Israel. Tehran has also voiced support for pro-democracy movements elsewhere in the region, especially Bahrain where the Sunni monarchy was aided by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to put down democracy protests led by majority Shi'ite Muslims. But the Islamic Republic, which crushed its own mass protests after the disputed re-election of hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in June 2009, has not expressed backing for demonstrators in Syria where President Bashar al-Assad is a key regional ally. "Our stance is clear: wherever a movement is Islamic, popular and anti-American, we support it," Khamenei told the crowd which punctuated his speech at Khomeini's mausoleum on the outskirts of Tehran with chants of "Death to America."
  • Iraq Sees Oil Output at 3 Million BPD by Year-End. Iraq expects its oil output to rise to 3 million barrels per day by the end of this year and sees it growing an additional 500,000 to 1 million bpd next year, Deputy Prime Minister Hussain al-Shahristani said on Saturday. Shahristani said Iraq's programme to install new single point moorings or SPMs would help increase export capacity by an additional 1.8 million bpd by the end of this year. The OPEC member's current output is about 2.7 million to 2.8 million bpd. Iraq's oil exports in May averaged 2.225 mln bpd.
  • BIS - Banks May Need More Cash to Clear Derivatives. The world's top 14 derivatives dealers may need extra cash to handle a surge in transaction clearing, especially in choppy markets, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) said.
BBC:
  • Eurozone Woes Are US Woes. A different perspective on the risks the world faces from the financial woes of Greece, Ireland and Portugal is provided by a new class of statistics published today by the Bank for International Settlements, the central bankers' central bank. What it shows is that US banks are collectively second or third most exposed to the woes of Greece, Portugal and Ireland, through what the BIS calls their "potential exposure" to these countries. This new visibility for the big bets US banks have made on the eurozone's most overstretched economies could prove controversial in Washington - coming so soon after these banks were bailed out by US taxpayers.
Irish Independent:
  • We Will Default, So Let's Get On With It. Ireland will default, when it does happen we should not do it alone but with Greece and Portugal; we should consider leaving Europe given how badly they treat us; we need to take a scalpel to our public sector and Ireland will take five to seven years from now to recover. Those are the views of Larry McDonald, former Lehman Brothers vice president turned international best-selling author, who was in Dublin last week speaking at the Irish Funds Industry Association. McDonald was, until September 2008, vice president of distressed debt and convertible securities trading at Lehman Brothers. He was heralded by many colleagues at Lehman for both his early 2006 call on the subprime crisis and the $46m in trading profits realised from it.
Bild am Sonntag:
  • Horst Seehofer, head of German Chancellor Angela Merkel's coalition partner SCU, said it's not certain yet that the lower house of parliament will support more aid for Greece, citing an interview. "We won't issue a black check," Seehofer, who leads the sister party to Merkel's Christian Democrats and is also prime minister of Bavaria's state government, was quoted as saying. The parliament will only agree on loans under strict conditions such as a "maximum" effort by Greece to consolidate its budget, Seehofer said.
  • The large number of patients sickened by the E. coli outbreak in Germany has created a "tense situation" for hospitals in the north of the country, Health Minister Daniel Bahr said in an interview.
Kyodo News:
  • Radiation readings from inside Tokyo Electric Power Co.'s No. 1 reactor building in the Fukushima Dai-Ichi facility were as high as 4,000 millsieverts an hour, the highest recorded at the plant, citing data from the utility.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
  • Made positive comments on (FCX) and (HXL).
  • Made negative comments on (LO).
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -1.0% to -.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 110.0 +.75 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 115.75 +2.25 basis points.
  • S&P 500 futures unch.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.07%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (GIII)/.04
Economic Releases
  • None of note
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed Chairman Bernanke speaking to Intl Monetary Conference, Fed's Plosser speaking, Fed's Fisher speaking, 3-Month/6-Month Treasury Bill Auction, Goldman Sachs Healthcare Conference, RBC Capital Markets Energy/Power Conference, BofA Merrill Telecom/Media/Tech Conference, Goldman Sachs Lodging/Gaming/Restaurant/Leisure Conference, Jefferies Healthcare Conference and the (ATML) analyst day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by automaker and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

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