Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Papandreou Faces Growing Backlash as Last EU Bailout Premier. George Papandreou is the last man standing among the euro-area leaders who needed a handout after Jose Socrates’s defeat in Portuguese elections yesterday. For Papandreou and the investors and taxpayers who will share the cost of a beefed-up bailout for Greece, questions are increasing about whether he will complete a term that runs until 2013 and enact the budget cuts and asset sales that his benefactors demand. The Greek premier, who has won assurances that international lenders will make the next payment of last year’s 110 billion-euro ($161 billion) rescue, will aim to quell growing dissent this week within his Socialist party -- known as Pasok -- over deeper budget cuts and asset sales as voters’ patience wears thin and public protests mount. “The coming week may well test the seams of Pasok in parliament and could prove a challenge too much for Papandreou,” said Jens Bastian, a visiting economist at St. Antony’s College, Oxford University in England. “It is a make or break situation for his leadership of the party and the government.”
- Slowing U.S. Growth Prompts Optimists to Question Durability of Recovery. A string of disappointing economic data capped by last week’s jobs report is prompting even some of the more optimistic economists to question the durability of the U.S. recovery. While analysts such as Stephen Stanley of Pierpoint Securities LLC and Michael Feroli of JPMorgan Chase & Co. still see growth strengthening in the months ahead, they voiced concern that the lull in the economy may prove prolonged, leaving it more vulnerable to external shocks or policy missteps.
- OPEC Overshadowed by Qaddafi in Most-Hostile Meeting Since 1990 Gulf War. OPEC ministers meeting in Vienna this week will find themselves supporting opposing camps of a military conflict for the first time in 21 years, with hostilities in Libya complicating an agreement on oil quotas. Not since Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1990 has the producer group gathered with some nations giving financial and military support to a movement seeking to topple the government of a fellow member. While Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi is trying to quash a rebellion in a country that holds Africa’s largest crude reserves, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates are backing the insurgents.
- Commodity Bubbles Caused by Speculators Need Intervention, UN Agency Says. Commodity markets need international oversight, more transparency and intervention to deflate bubbles because increasing speculation means prices are no longer driven by supply and demand, the United Nations said. Increased investment in commodity markets has encouraged “herding behavior” and creates bubbles, the UN’s Conference on Trade and Development said in a report published today. Anticipation of the global economic recovery played a “disproportionate role” in higher commodity prices, it said. “Prices can move far from levels justified by the fundamentals for extended periods, leading to an increasing risk of price bubbles,” the UN said in the report. “Due to these distortions, commodity prices do not always provide correct signals about the relative scarcity of commodities.” The UN’s Food Price Index neared a record set in February last month as commodity futures gained. Corn on the Chicago Board of Trade and silver have more than doubled in the past year and gold is up 27 percent. Rice is up 32 percent. The “financialization” of commodity markets that’s increased since 2004 has led to a lack of “price discovery” that farmers and miners use to make hedging decisions, according to the UN report. “Market participants make trading decisions based on factors that are totally unrelated to the respective commodity, such as portfolio considerations, or they may be following a trend,” the UN agency said. “The price discovery mechanism is seriously distorted.” Providing more timely data on fundamentals, information about market participants, especially in Europe, increasing position limits and banning proprietary trading by financial institutions that are involved in making hedging decisions for their clients are ways to solve problems associated with speculative investments in commodities, the UN said. Introducing a tax system that slows financial market activities and more government involvement in trading is needed to ensure traders are considering supply and demand fundamentals when investing, it said. Study organizers who interviewed 22 market participants reported “widespread herd behavior,” the agency said. “Physical traders, in particular, emphasized that the activities of financial players have strong effects on commodity markets and sometimes impair the functioning of commodity futures for hedging,” according to the report.
- Tepco Slumps to Record Low on Radiation Spike. Tokyo Electric Power Co. fell to a record low after reports that radiation levels surged at its crippled Fukushima plant and the president of Japan’s largest stock exchange said the utility should be liquidated. The owner of the crippled Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear plant plunged as much as 28 percent to 206 yen, the most since the utility known as Tepco starting trading in 1974. The stock traded 24 percent lower at 218 yen at 11 a.m. in Tokyo and was the biggest decliner in the Topix Electric Power & Gas Index. Radiation readings inside the No. 1 reactor building spiked to the highest level yet, almost three months after the disaster started, Kyodo News reported June 4, citing data from Tepco. In a separate report, the Asahi newspaper cited Tokyo Stock Exchange President Atsushi Saito as saying that the utility should undergo restructuring similar to Japan Airlines Co., which filed for bankruptcy protection in 2010.
- Funds Boost Bullish Commodity Bets Amid Improving Global Growth Prospects. Funds boosted bets on rising commodity prices to the highest in four weeks, led by copper, amid signs that the global economic recovery will remain resilient and boost demand for raw materials. Speculators raised their net-long positions in 18 commodities by 7.3 percent to 1.26 million futures and options contracts in the week ended May 31, government data compiled by Bloomberg show. That’s the highest since May 3. Copper holdings more than doubled. A measure of bullish agriculture bets also climbed as adverse global weather curbed crop production.
- Lead Smelters in China May Cut Output as Demand Slows, Regulation Tightens. Lead smelters in China, the world’s largest producer and consumer, may idle capacity as demand slows amid a power shortage and as the nation clamps down on polluting units, according to Beijing Antaike Information Development Co. “Lead demand has been weak and while we haven’t heard of smelters cutting output, many have brought forward their annual maintenance shutdowns, which is essentially the same thing,” said Hu Yongda, an analyst at state-owned Antaike. He didn’t give an estimate of how much capacity may be affected. Reduced Chinese demand may accelerate a decline in prices in London this year as consumption is forecast by the International Lead and Zinc Study Group to trail output for a fourth year. Moves to tighten rules on production of so-called e-bikes and lead-acid batteries may cool demand for lead, Zhu Yan, an analyst at Xiangyu Futures Co., said from Shanghai. “The fundamentals for lead are looking quite bleak at the moment, with the announcements about the electric bicycles and battery makers,” Zhu said from Shanghai.
- House Demands Obama Explain Military Mission in Libya Amid 'War Fatigue'. The U.S. House of Representatives, reflecting what one Republican termed “war fatigue” along with puzzlement over the U.S. military’s role in Libya, is demanding a fuller explanation for the mission from President Barack Obama. In a bipartisan vote, the House yesterday adopted Speaker John Boehner’s resolution that directs Obama to describe “in detail” the U.S. “security interests and objectives” for supporting the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s bombing campaign against Libyan dictator Muammar Qaddafi. The resolution, approved 268-145, was an alternative to Ohio Democrat Dennis Kucinich’s proposal to force the end of U.S. support for the mission in 15 days.
- Palmer Ends Fourth Try at $3.6 Billion Resourcehouse IPO as Investors Balk. Resourcehouse Ltd., the iron ore and coal company controlled by Australian billionaire Clive Palmer, pulled its planned initial public offering in Hong Kong for a fourth time, citing negative market conditions.
- IMF Agrees to $3 Billion for Post-Mubarak Transition. Egypt and a visiting International Monetary Fund mission agreed to a $3 billion loan as the North African country seeks to fund its widening budget deficit after a popular revolt earlier this year. The 12-month loan is part of wider international support pledges for Egypt, where the turmoil that accompanied the uprising that led to the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak has hurt revenue from tourism and industrial output.
- Airline Profits Forecast Cut 54% by IATA on Japan Quake, Rising Fuel Costs.
- Violence Flares Up at Israeli Border. Violence along the border between Syria and the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights escalated, claiming casualties on Sunday, as Israeli soldiers opened fire on demonstrators in two locations who sought to march across the frontier on the anniversary of the outbreak of the 1967 Arab-Israeli war. Syria's state news agency said 23 people were killed and more than 350 were injured. Israeli officials accused Syria of backing the protests to distract attention from its repression of weekslong antiregime protests, and said Lebanese authorities avoided a flare-up by declaring the border a closed military zone.
- Drone Attacks Split U.S. Officials. Fissures have opened within the Obama administration over the drone program targeting militants in Pakistan, with the U.S. ambassador to Pakistan and some top military leaders pushing to rein in the Central Intelligence Agency's aggressive pace of strikes.
- Staying on Boards After Humble Exit. Many CEOs Who Leave Under a Cloud Remain as Directors Elsewhere, With Some Paid Handsomely.
- Exchange-Traded Derivatives Trades Surges in First Quarter - BIS. Trading volumes on international derivatives exchanges, measured by the notional amount of traded contracts, increased 21% on the quarter during the first quarter of 2011, the Bank for International Settlements said late Sunday. The rise to $581 trillion came from a growth in activity "in all market segments except foreign exchange," the BIS said in its Quarterly Review. Open interest, also measured in notional amounts, expanded by 24% from the fourth quarter 2010.
- Goldman(GS) Plans to Fight Back Against Senate Report. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., trying to counter a Senate subcommittee report that is fueling investigations and suspicion of the firm, plans to accuse the subcommittee of drastically overstating Goldman's bets against the housing market in 2007, people familiar with the situation said.
- Helping Chips to Sip Power. A team of Silicon Valley veterans is claiming they can reduce power consumption in computer chips by 50%, potentially extending the battery life of portable devices and helping chip manufacturers keep pace with giants like Intel Corp.
- Feds to Biotech Firms: Shut Up. Medicine will suffer if Washington controls the flow of scientific information. A federal judge sentenced the former head of a biotech company to six months of home confinement this spring and fined him $20,000. His offense? Issuing a single press release about a drug.
- China, Patents and U.S. Jobs. A new report suggests better intellectual property protection by Beijing could create 2.1 million American jobs.
- There Are Thousands of People Protesting in Athens' Syntagma Square Right Now. (pic) For the 12th day in a row, protesters continue to make their voices heard in Athens. There are reports of 50,000 to 500,000 (likely closer to the former) protesting in Syntagma Square this evening, against the government program of austerity measures, and the current political situation. Protesters have been camped out here all week, similar to the situation in Spain in the run up to their regional elections. Whether or not they'll have any impact on the implementation of the country's latest austerity plan remains to be seen.
- It's Official: John Paulson Has Been Getting Clobbered. John Paulson is hitting a rough patch. The FT is reporting that for May, his flagship Advantage Fund, fell 6%. That compares to an average decline of just 1.39% in the month. For the year he's now down 7.6%. And that's before June -- which is already off to a rough start. On Friday we mentioned how Paulson probably lost hundreds of millions in shares of Sino-Forest, the latest case of a Chinese stock getting killed after a short-seller raises questions about accounting. Well on Friday, says WSJ, Paulson told investors that this stock did in fact represent 2% of his Advantage Fund, and at this point represents a loss to the fund of around $323 million. Meanwhile, another one of his big past winners -- his gold fund -- fell 6.4% in May.
- The Greek Debt Problem "In Simple Mathematics".
- This Week's 10 Best WEINERGATE Jokes.
- China Scolded Over Recent Aggressive Moves in South China Sea. China has come under fire for its actions in the South China Sea from U.S. officials and the leaders of countries in the region, according to the Financial Times.
- Fukushima Radiation Jumps to Record Levels, As Tepco Warns That Heavy Rain Will Cause Toxic Pools to Overflow. Things seem to be getting worse at the Fukushima Nuclear Plant. Today Tepco announced radiation readings of up to 4,000 millisieverts per hour at reactor No. 1 -- the highest air radiation yet at that reactor, according to Japan Times. This follows video of steam rising from the reactor floor. Tepco also warned that pools of radioactive water will overflow by June 20 or sooner if there is heavy rain.
- A Few Charts That Show Why Quantitative Easing Was A Miserable Failure.
- Al Qaeda Video Calls On Americans To "Buy Guns and Start Shooting People".
- Two Clear Warning Signs in the Credit Markets.
- China Car Sales Tumble For Second Month In A Row, As Goldman(GS) Sees Spike In China Inflation To Multi-Year Highs.
- Another China Rate Hike As Early As This Week Expected.
- Video Game Consoles' Dominance is Crumbling. Consoles are losing ground in video gaming as players turn to tablets and smartphones.
- Construction Important to Recovery, But Struggles Could Drag Colorado Down. If Colorado's economy is battered and bruised after more than three years of recession and tepid recovery, the state's construction industry is decimated. The sector lost 60,000 jobs during the past three years — a reduction of more than a third, and almost half of Colorado's total job loss of about 130,000. The contraction worsened in recent months, sapping momentum from a delicate turnaround for the state and diminishing one of its biggest employment bases. Combined with related sectors including real estate sales, mortgage lending and the manufacture and retail of building products, construction has an outsized economic impact in Colorado.
- Big Money Moves Into the Midwest Grain Trade. For rural farm co-ops, it's definitely a new era when East Coast hedge funds, Asian corporations and investors for billionaire George Soros come a-courting. Across the Midwest, well-heeled outside investors are on the prowl to acquire the hard assets of U.S. agribusiness.
- Horst Seehofer, head of German Chancellor Angela Merkel's coalition partner SCU, said it's not certain yet that the lower house of parliament will support more aid for Greece, citing an interview. "We won't issue a black check," Seehofer, who leads the sister party to Merkel's Christian Democrats and is also prime minister of Bavaria's state government, was quoted as saying. The parliament will only agree on loans under strict conditions such as a "maximum" effort by Greece to consolidate its budget, Seehofer said.
- The large number of patients sickened by the E. coli outbreak in Germany has created a "tense situation" for hospitals in the north of the country, Health Minister Daniel Bahr said in an interview.
- Radiation readings from inside Tokyo Electric Power Co.'s No. 1 reactor building in the Fukushima Dai-Ichi facility were as high as 4,000 millsieverts an hour, the highest recorded at the plant, citing data from the utility.
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (FCX) and (HXL).
- Made negative comments on (LO).
- Asian indices are -1.0% to -.50% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 110.0 +.75 basis point.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 115.75 +2.25 basis points.
- S&P 500 futures unch.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.07%.
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (GIII)/.04
- None of note
- None of note
- The Fed Chairman Bernanke speaking to Intl Monetary Conference, Fed's Plosser speaking, Fed's Fisher speaking, 3-Month/6-Month Treasury Bill Auction, Goldman Sachs Healthcare Conference, RBC Capital Markets Energy/Power Conference, BofA Merrill Telecom/Media/Tech Conference, Goldman Sachs Lodging/Gaming/Restaurant/Leisure Conference, Jefferies Healthcare Conference and the (ATML) analyst day could also impact trading today.
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