Monday, May 19, 2014

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Ukraine Forces Fight Rebels as Separatists Prepare Vote. Ukrainian forces fought insurgents in the country’s east, killing one rebel and losing a police station, as separatists prepared for a fall election after declaring independence and saying they want to join Russia. Masked men set fire to a candidate’s regional campaign office before a May 25 presidential ballot as government troops and insurgents skirmished in Ukraine’s Donbass regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. The separatists, who hold buildings and radio and television towers in about 15 cities, said they’d hold a vote, possibly around Sept. 14, to elect new officials for their self-proclaimed “Donetsk People’s Republic.” 
  • Carney Says Rising House Prices Are Biggest Risk to U.K. Economy. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney identified surging housing prices as the biggest risk to the U.K. economy in his strongest warning about the property market. In a sign policy makers soon may respond to the price gain, Carney said housing in the U.K. has “deep, deep structural problems,” according to excerpts of an interview that will be televised tomorrow on Sky News’s “Murnaghan” show. Home prices jumped almost 11 percent in April, the biggest annual gain since 2007, according to Nationwide Building Society. While Carney has downplayed raising interest rates to cool off the housing market, he highlighted its economic threat. “The biggest risk to financial stability, and therefore to the durability of the expansion, those risks center in the housing market and that’s why we are focused on that,” he said.
  • Nigeria Attack Kills 29 People as Boko Haram Plan Agreed. Suspected Boko Haram militants attacked a market in northeastern Nigeria, killing 29 people, as African nations and France agreed on a joint plan to fight the Islamist group. The deaths occurred in northeast Ngurosoye village in the Bama region this morning, said Senator Ahmed Zanna, who represents the area. Boko Haram, which means “western education is a sin” in the Hausa language, has conducted a violent campaign since 2009 to impose Islamic law in Africa’s top oil producer. 
  • Toasts Turn to Water Cannons as China, Vietnam Spar on High Seas. The crews from the Vietnamese and Chinese coast guards shook hands and took photos as they met last month, sharing platters of fruit and raising their glasses for a toast. Now, they are in a tense standoff in the South China Sea.
  • Asian Stocks Drop as Ringgit, Nickel Climb; Wheat Slides. Asian stocks fell, with the regional index slipping a second trading day, while Malaysia’s ringgit strengthened after the economy grew faster than economists estimated. Nickel extended its advance amid a reinvigoration of concerns over supply, as wheat led grain futures lower. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.2 percent by 9:58 am. in Tokyo, with the S&P/ASX 200 Index in Sydney and Seoul’s Kospi gauge down at least 0.3 percent.
  • Euro Drops for Second Week as Growth Concern Sparks Bond Selloff. The euro had the biggest two-week decline against the dollar since November as increased concern that the area’s economy is struggling to accelerate sparked selloffs in bonds issued by Greece and Portugal. The yen rallied the most versus the dollar among the 16 major currencies as Japan’s economy grew at the faster pace since 2011, while the Swiss franc lost the most on speculation the central bank may raise its adjust its currency cap in response to any unconventional easing from the European Central Bank. India’s rupee topped gains in emerging-market currencies as Sonia Gandhi conceded an election to Narendra Modi’s opposition bloc before final results next week. 
  • Clinton Bears Responsibility Over Benghazi, Cheney Says. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton bears responsibility for the attacks on a U.S. compound in Benghazi, Libya, and will be held accountable should she run for president in 2016, former Vice President Dick Cheney said. “It’s a major issue,” Cheney, who served under President George W. Bush, said in an interview on the “Fox News Sunday” TV program. “I don’t think we’ve heard the last of it yet.”
Wall Street Journal: 
Barron's:
  • Our Top 100 Hedge Funds. Equity funds came roaring back into style in 2013, particularly those with a tight focus on a short list of stocks. But what are the fund plays for 2014?
MarketWatch.com: 
  • Blackstone(BX) to sell Boston towers for $2.1 billion. Blackstone Group LP has agreed to sell five Boston-area high-rise office towers to a venture led by Canadian real estate investor Oxford Properties Group for about $2.1 billion, according to multiple people familiar with the deal.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
  • Hedge fund manager Chanos wary of Japan PM's plans to rearm. Prominent hedge fund manager Jim Chanos on Friday called Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe the most dangerous figure in Asia, citing his plans to rearm his country. Abe could destabilize the region more than what any Chinese leaders are doing, said Chanos, who heads Kynikos Associates, at the SkyBridge Alternatives Conference here. He was responding when asked to name the most dangerous person in Asia.
  • AT&T(T) to buy DirecTV for $48.5 billion as cellular growth eases. AT&T plans to pay $48.5 billion to buy DirecTV, the top U.S. satellite TV operator, in a bid for growth beyond an increasingly competitive cellular market.
Financial Times:
  • Bundled debt demand reaching levels of height of crisis. Sales of bundled US corporate debt known as collateralised loan obligations are on course to surpass levels reached at the height of the credit bubble, as the relentless search for yield leads investors to abandon caution. The sales illustrate the rise in risk-taking by investors recently burnt in the financial crisis. In addition to renewed appetite for CLOs, private equity firms are buying out companies at record highs and investors are snapping up repackaged subprime UK mortgages that lenders are eager to get off their books.
Telegraph:
Yomiuri:
  • Japan May Send Defense Force Units to Southwest Islands. Japan considers deployed troops in southwestern islands Amami Oshima, Miyako and Ishigaki to step up defense in the regions. Japan may send 350 self-defense force personnel to each of the three islands.
China Securities Journal:
  • China Researcher Sees 2Q Export Growth at About 5%. China's export and import growth will maintain a low to medium speed in 2Q, State Information Center writes. 2Q import growth expected at around 4.5%. Chinese economy faces downward pressure.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
  • Bullish commentary on (WAG), (OIS), (TGI), (AMTD), (AVP), (PBI) and (EQIX).
  • Bearish commentary on (WWE).
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.50% to +.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 119.0 +1.75 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 84.50 unch.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.04%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.03%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.06%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (CPB)/.59
  • (VAL)/1.04
  • (URBN)/.27
  • (HTZ)/.09
Economic Releases 
  • None of note
Upcoming Splits
  • (BHB) 3-for-2
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Fisher speaking, Eurzone construction data, RBA minutes, UBS Oil/Gas Conference, JPMorgan Tech/Media/Telecom Conference, UBS Healthcare Conference and the (SGY) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by real estate and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

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