Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:

• World Bank Cuts Global Growth. The World Bank cut its forecast for global growth this year, as an improving U.S. economy and low fuel prices fail to offset disappointing results from Europe to China. The world economy will expand 3 percent in 2015, down from a projection of 3.4 percent in June, according to the lender’s semiannual Global Economic Prospects report, released today in Washington. The report adds to signs of a growing disparity between the U.S. and other major economies while tempering any optimism that a plunge in oil prices will boost output. Risks to the global recovery are “significant and tilted to the downside,” with dangers including a spike in financial volatility, intensifying geopolitical tensions and prolonged stagnation in the euro region or Japan. “The global economy today is much larger than what it used to be, so it’s a case of a larger train being pulled by a single engine, the American one,” World Bank Chief Economist Kaushik Basu told reporters on a conference call. “This does not make for a rosy outlook for the world.” 

• Russia ETF Investors Back Out as Oil Drop Deepens. The largest exchange-traded fund tracking Russian stocks is opening the year with the highest redemptions in a month amid the widest price swings since 2009 as oil extends its rout and the ruble plummets. Shares in the $1.4 billion Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) ended unchanged at $14.77 after dropping as much as 2.7 percent. Asset managers pulled $36.9 million from the fund on Monday, the biggest outflow since mid-December, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The Bloomberg Russia-US Equity Index of the most-traded Russian stocks fell 1 percent after the dollar-denominated RTS Index declined to the lowest in four weeks. The ruble tumbled 3.2 percent against the dollar. 

• Russians Hit by Ruble Crisis Drop Swiss Playground for Holidays at Home. The number of Russians staying in Swiss hotels declined in 2014 as the ruble plummeted and President Vladimir Putin’s government urged vacations at home. That’s being felt in the Alpine town of St. Moritz, location of the 1928 and 1948 Olympic games.

• Asia Stares at Deflation With Rising Debt, Morgan Stanley Says. Asia’s rapid accumulation of debt in recent years is holding back central banks from easing monetary policy to fight the risk of deflation, endangering private investment needed to boost faltering growth, according to Morgan Stanley. Debt to gross domestic product ratio in the region excluding Japan rose to 203 percent in 2013 from 147 percent in 2007, with most of the increase coming from companies, analysts led by Chetan Ahya in Hong Kong wrote in a report yesterday. The ratio is close to or has exceeded 200 percent in seven of 10 nations including China and South Korea, they said.

• China Bulls Cash Out as Stock Rally Overshoots Target. After watching Chinese stocks surge 37 percent in just three months, some of the world’s biggest banks are souring on the booming market. Citigroup Inc. (C) became the latest to cut its outlook on Jan. 12, lowering its rating to neutral from overweight amid concern valuations are turning unattractive. The downgrade follows predictions in the last two weeks from HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA), Bocom International Holdings Co. and UBS AG that gains in mainland-listed shares will falter. The Shanghai Composite Index closed yesterday at 3,235.30, or 7 percent higher than where analysts tracked by Bloomberg predict the gauge will be in 12 months, the biggest gap among global equity measures. 

• Japan Passes Record Defense Budget in Bid to Defend Isles. Japan will step up spending on amphibious vehicles and purchase its first unmanned surveillance aircraft as it seeks to bolster defense of remote islands amid a territorial dispute with China. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s cabinet today approved a record defense budget of 4.98 trillion yen ($42 billion) for the fiscal year starting April, up 2 percent from the previous year and just above the previous record of 4.96 trillion yen reached in 2002.

• Most Asian Stocks Drop as Commodities Slump, Yen Extends Advance. Most Asian stocks declined as the yen gained a fourth day against the dollar and commodity prices slumped. About five shares dropped for every three that rose on the dollar-denominated MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP), which added 0.1 percent to 137.94 as of 9:53 a.m. in Tokyo. The yen rose 0.3 percent to 117.61 per dollar, bringing its gain since Jan. 9 to about 1.7 percent. Copper sank to its lowest since 2009 as Brent oil fell 1.8 percent to $46.59 a barrel overnight. 

• Copper Tumbles Most in Six Years as World Bank Cuts Forecasts. Copper fell the most in almost six years to below $5,400 a metric ton as a cut in the World Bank’s global growth forecast further fueled speculation demand for raw materials won’t be enough to eliminate a supply glut. Copper tumbled as much as 8.7 percent in London and fell to the daily trading limit in Shanghai.

• Oil at $40, and Below, Gaining Traction on Wall Street. Brace for $40-a-barrel oil. The U.S. benchmark crude price, down more than $60 since June to below $45 yesterday, is on the way to this next threshold, said Societe Generale SA and Bank of America Corp. And Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says that West Texas Intermediate needs to remain near $40 during the first half to deter investment in new supplies that would add to the glut.

• Oil Drop May Prompt Breitburn Debt Deal on Credit-Line Pinch. Breitburn Energy Partners LP, the oil and gas producer that canceled a bond deal three months ago, may try again to raise debt to pay down its $2.5 billion credit line. Tumbling crude prices mean it won’t come cheap. The company is considering tapping the loan market as it faces a potential reduction of the credit line when its ability to borrow, based partly on the value of its reserves, is reset in April, according to Jim Jackson, Breitburn’s chief financial officer.

• Suncor Cuts Jobs, Spending as Oil Rout Rattles Canada. The company will spend C$1 billion ($836 million) less this year than originally forecast in November, following Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ) in revising its budget lower this week. Suncor also plans to reduce operating expenses by C$600 million to C$800 million in two years, according to a company statement today. “Cost management has been an ongoing focus, with successful efforts to reduce both capital and operating costs well underway before the decline in oil prices,” Steve Williams, Suncor’s chief executive officer, said in the statement. “In today’s low crude price environment, it’s essential we accelerate this work.”

• Iron Ore, Coal Forecasts Cut by Citigroup as Energy Costs Sink. Citigroup Inc. reduced price forecasts for iron ore and coal as cheaper oil and declines in producers’ currencies combine to cut supply costs, signaling how the collapse in energy may feed through to other commodities. Iron ore will average $58 a metric ton in 2015 and $62 a ton in 2016, down from estimates of $65 for both years, analysts including Ivan Szpakowski wrote in a report dated today. The bank’s forecasts for coking coal and thermal coal were also reduced for the same period, according to the report.

• Gundlach Says U.S. Growth May Disappoint on Oil Decline. Jeffrey Gundlach, co-founder of $64 billion investment firm DoubleLine Capital, said the U.S. economy may grow at a slower rate this year than economists expect as falling oil prices hurt investment and hiring in the energy industry. While cheaper oil fueled growth in the final months of 2014, the decline has a “sinister” side that will ripple through the economy and prompt downward revisions to forecasts by the middle of the year, Gundlach said today in a webcast. Stock markets may not continue their rally and yields on 10-year Treasuries may go lower before rising again, he said.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Back to the Future? Oil Replays 1980s Bust. Rise of Shale Extraction Speeds Output and Changes Equation for OPEC, U.S. Producers.

• Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities Make Comeback. Some Warn Market Could Be Getting Overheated. A hunt for yield and a gradually improving property market are bolstering a key engine of U.S. commercial property lending, helping borrowers to refinance but also reigniting fears the market is getting overheated. In all, lenders made $94 billion in loans bundled together and sold off as bonds to investors in 2014, the most since 2007 for the product known as commercial mortgage-backed securities, according to trade publication Commercial Mortgage Alert.

• Shunning ObamaCare. Of my company’s 5,453 eligible employees, only 420 actually enrolled. The other 5,033 opted to pay a penalty. 

Fox News:

• White House hit for using security as ‘excuse’ for no-show at Paris rally. While the White House points to security concerns as the chief reason why President Obama skipped the anti-terrorism rally in Paris over the weekend, some suggest the Secret Service and his advance team could have made it happen -- if they really tried. Instead, critics say the security explanation is being used as an “excuse.” Brad Blakeman, who served on the advance team for George W. Bush’s campaign, said the Secret Service is the “scapegoat” here. “The president can go wherever he wants to go,” Blakeman said.

Zero Hedge:

• Volatility Storms Back With A Vengeance In 950 Point Intraday Dow Swing. (graph)

• At Last The ‘Experts’ Wake Up To Oil.

• Meet The Person Who Will Determine If The Market Is "Fair.

• Despite 'Gas Tax Cut', Airlines See Tumbling Traffic, Outsource US Jobs.

• The Mystery Of The Missing Consumer Analysts.

• Behold China's $300 Billion Accounting 'Fudge' (Or Where The Corrupt Money Flows). (graph)

• Copper Carnage Continues - Bloodbath At China Open. (graph)

Business Insider: 

• Elon Musk Just Said Tesla(TSLA) Sales Are Tanking In China, Sending Stock Down 6%.

• Here Are All The Charts Behind Jeff Gundlach's 2015 Outlook.

• GUNDLACH: Here's The Bear Case For Stocks In 3 Charts.

• Boko Haram's Insurgency Is Now One Of The Deadliest Conflicts On Earth.

• Obama Is About To Call For A Ton More Competition Among Broadband Service Providers.

Reuters: 

• Stryker(SYK) expects strong dollar to hit 2015 profit. Orthopedic device maker Stryker Corp said on Tuesday it expects the strong U.S. dollar to have a bigger negative impact on its 2015 earnings than it previously forecast, shaving about 20 cents from its per-share profit. The maker of artificial hip and knee joints previously forecast a currency impact of 10 cents to 12 cents on its 2015 earnings.

• Fed's Kocherlakota 'uneasy' about low longer-term rates. A top U.S. Federal Reserve official said on Tuesday he was "uneasy" about the low long-term yields on Treasury bonds because the situation indicates there are fewer safe assets for investors, and it suggests rates could be persistently low in the future. 

• Texas economic growth to lag rest of country -Fed economist. Growth in the Texas economy in 2015 will lag behind the national average due to falling energy prices that are dragging down the country's largest natural gas and oil producer, a Federal Reserve economist said on Tuesday. 

• CSX(CSX) profit up, expects double-digit earnings growth in 2015. CSX Corp, the third-largest U.S. railroad, on Tuesday reported a higher quarterly profit that was in line with analyst expectations and said it expected a strong increase in its freight business and double-digit earnings growth during 2015. 

• Investors cut hedge fund bets in January - data. Investors' interest in hedge funds fell in January as they pulled out more cash than they invested, data showed on Tuesday, part of an annual rejig of portfolios. The SS&C GlobeOp Capital Movement Index, which calculates monthly hedge fund subscriptions minus redemptions, fell 2.95 percent in January, the sharpest drop in a year. That compared with a rise of 0.39 percent in December.

Liquidity crunch a catalyst for big China slowdown – analysts The mini liquidity crunch is the early warning sign of a substantial economic correction long overdue, amid rising leverage and a broken growth model, say bearish analysts.


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Evening Recommendations 

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 119.0 -1.0 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 75.75 +1.0 basis point.

• S&P 500 futures -.37%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures  -.34%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (JPM)/1.32

• (WFC)/1.02

• (FUL)/.64

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Retail Sales Advance for December are estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.7% gain in November.

• Retail Sales Ex Autos for December are estimated unch. versus a +.5% gain in November.

• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for December are estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.6% gain in November.

• The Import Price Index for December is estimated to fall -2.7% versus a -1.5% decline in November. 

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for November are estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in October. 

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +1,275,000 barrels versus a -3,062,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +3,562,500 barrels versus an +8,115,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate supplies are estimated to rise by +2,375,000 barrels versus a +11,205,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.1% versus a -.5% decline the prior week.

2:00 pm EST

• Fed's Beige Book
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Plosser speaking, EU OMT Ruling, Japan Machine Tool Orders, 30Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA mortgage applications report, (DPZ) investor day and the (NRG) investor meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.