Wednesday, May 29, 2019

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth -1.2%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Retail -2.8% 2) Drugs -1.9% 3) Oil Service -1.8%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • ANF, GOOS, HLI, PLAN, DKS, WDAY, EVH, CPRI, PPC, YPF, GIS, CAMP, PDCE, ESTC, JNJ, CALM, PAA, CATM, PAGP, KEM, ENR, CLVS, SAFM, TSN, AGN, AEO, LB, PPC, YETI and ELF
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) GLUU 2) CRZO 3) KKR 4) DVA 5) AET
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CAMP 2) GIS 3) JNJ 4) NIO 5) TEAM
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Growth -.6%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Telecom +.7% 2) Semis +.4% 3) Gaming +.2%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • SOLY, CARA, CY, BLMN, HEI, AMRN, YY, ROKU, ARMK, MOMO, ON, WUBA and NTNX
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) GPOR 2) GNW 3) CARA 4) DKS 5) CY
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) CARA 2) BYND 3) ROKU 4) BZUN 5) HEI
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Tuesday, May 28, 2019

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.0% to -.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.0 +1.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 54.5 +2.0 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.59 -.03%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.29%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.49%.
Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:
  • (ANF)/-.43
  • (BMO)/2.33
  • (GOOS)/.05
  • (DKS)/.59 
After the Close:
  • (GES)/-.26
  • (KEYS)/.99
  • (PANW)/1.25
  • (PVH)/2.45
  • (SMTC)/.33
  • (VRNT)/.62
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for May is estimated to rise to 7.0 versus 3.0 in April.
Upcoming Splits
  • (FFIN) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The French GDP report, $32B 7Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, US weekly retail sales reports, Raymond James Defense/Govt Services Conference, Cowen Tech/Media/Telecom Conference and the (PBI) investor day  could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Worries, European Debt Angst, Technical Selling, Biotech/Energy Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.7 +5.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.04 -.22%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.38 -.71%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 41.3 +3.7%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 68.0 -1.45%
  • Total Put/Call 1.03 +7.3%
  • NYSE Arms 1.31 +3.15%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.32 +2.21%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 567.0 +.73%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 89.35 +2.6%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 284.50 +17.5 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.87 +1.02%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 208.35 +.61%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 163.13 +.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 3.25 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 19.0 +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.75 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.62 -.3%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.34% unch.
  • Yield Curve 13.75 -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.75 USD/Metric Tonne -.38%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -35.0 +5.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -14.40 +7.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -24.20 +3.2 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.74 -3.0 basis points
  • 19.4% chance of Fed rate cut at July 31st meeting, 52.1% chance of cut at Sept. 18th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -175 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -144 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -21 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value -.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Tobacco -2.8% 2) Foods -1.2% 3) Disk Drives -.7%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • FAF, INS, ASGN, AMWD, YNDX, PHI, EC, KHC, BTI, CBAY, FIZZ, NTNX, ROKU, ARGX, HOV and MYL
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) HPQ 2) TIF 3) GPS 4) AMTD 5) DKS
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) NTNX 2) DF 3) FAF 4) GILD 5) MYL
Charts: