Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.6 -.1%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.63% unch.
- China Iron Ore Spot 107.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.60 euros/megawatt-hour +1.7%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.0 -1.3 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -25.2 +1.5 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.9 +.5 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(30 of 500 reporting) +7.3% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 267.35 +.25: Growth Rate +14.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.9 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.68% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 367.08 +.32: Growth Rate +28.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.2 unch.
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .78 +2.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.08 +7.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 14.0 basis point (2s/10s) +.75 basis point
- US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +3.22% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 50.7 +2.6 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.62% unch.: CPI YoY +2.55% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 unch.
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 68.3%(-16.1 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 50.7%(-17.8 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +600 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +28 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +160 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/biotech/utility sector longs and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
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