Friday, August 16, 2019

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 2,886.74 -1.06%
 
























The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
 
Indices
  • DJIA 25,825.94 -1.67%
  • NASDAQ 7,891.34 -.79%
  • Russell 2000 1,493.31 -1.27%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 39.72 -2.0%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 140.12 -2.04%
  • Wilshire 5000 29,606.43 -1.16%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 1,584.41 -.78%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,209.74 -1.48%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 617.78 +1.38%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,095.26 -1.13%
  • NYSE Technology 1,897.71 +.12%
  • Transports 9,969.38 -2.33%
  • Utilities 830.43 +.44%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 64.81 -1.68%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 39.81 -.52%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,225.36 -.08%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 947.75 +.02%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 361,566 -.96%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -749 -732
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 25.0 -51.9%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 375,641 -3.01%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,070,210 +.06%
  • Total Put/Call 1.1 +22.0%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.16 unch.
  • ISE Sentiment 94.0 -23.9%
  • NYSE Arms .49 -71.2%
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.92 +3.06%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.16 +11.1%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.87 +3.72%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.77 +5.97%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 13,882.59 -3.54%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $3.354 Trillion +.54%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$19.586 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 23.2 +7.0%
  • AAII % Bears 44.9 -7.0%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 170.19 -1.01%
  • Crude Oil 54.72 +1.22%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 165.57 -.34%
  • Natural Gas 2.19 +2.40%
  • Heating Oil 181.43 +1.25%
  • Gold 1,518.50 +.79%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 172.52 -.01%
  • Copper 259.30 -.13%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 286.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.69%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 87.85 USD/Metric Tonne -3.34%
  • Lumber 358.90 +2.90%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 839.38 -3.38%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.23% +28.0 basis points
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -.5% -60.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 35.0% +2.5%
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.2539 +4.94%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 159.46 +30.30%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 175.20 -.03%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -17.60 +13.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -63.60 -9.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -23.30 -3.0 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0% chance of no change, 100.0% chance of rate cut on 9/18
  • US Dollar Index 98.20 +1.22%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,606.35 -.31%
  • Bitcoin/USD 10,490.55 -12.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 122.42 -.40%
  • Yield Curve 6.25 -4.5 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.55% -18.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.747 Trillion +.12%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 15.32 -3.22%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 184.83 -.06%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 208.0 -30.25 basis points
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 51.71 +.6%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 138.95 +4.9%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 60.68 +1.38%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 32.17 +1.60%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 101.82 -5.45%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 164.64 -.05%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.56% -10 basis points
  • TED Spread 24.0 +5.25 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 1.75 +3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.75 +.75 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 58.97 +.48%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 428.0 +9.15%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 68.50 -4.2%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 204.06 +14.4%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 180.0 unch.
  • M1 Money Supply $3.883 Trillion +.31%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,134.60 -.5%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 213,750 +1,500
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.60% unch.
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 620.40 +21.7%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 61.2 -1.7 points
  • Weekly Retail Sales +4.40% -40.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.64/gallon -.03/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 2,047 +17.1%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 830.18 +1.53%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 25.0 +25.0%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 271,996 -1.14%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth -.8%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value -1.8%
Leading Sectors
  • Coal +5.0%
  • Tobacco +3.0%
  • Disk Drives +1.3%
  • Papers +1.1%
  • Utilities +.6%
Lagging Sectors
  • Banks -3.0% 
  • Retail -3.9%
  • Agriculture -4.2%
  • Oil Service -5.0%
  • Airlines -5.6%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (5)
  • ZYXI, APPN, EB, CBLK and CYRX
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (4)
  • DDS, CVET, ADS and TRUP
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Rising into Afternoon Hour on Earnings Optimism, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Retail/Financial Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.0 -10.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 122.46 +.04%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.78 -1.24%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.58 -3.7%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 92.0 +13.6%
  • Total Put/Call 1.10 -5.2%
  • NYSE Arms .50 -64.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.05 -4.79%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 428.0 +1.11%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.10 -5.37%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 208.0 +3.5 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.76 -3.0%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 204.24 -2.4%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 164.64 -.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 1.75 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 23.0 +1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.75 +4.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.75 +.17%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.87% -2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 6.0 +2.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 87.85 USD/Metric Tonne +1.19%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -17.6 -4.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -63.60 +.5 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -23.3 -2.3 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.55 unch.
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Oct. 30th meeting, 100.0% chance of cut at Dec. 11th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +122 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -2 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -20 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my retail/industrial/biotech/medical/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth +1.4%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -1.0% 2) Utilities +.1% 3) Restaurants +.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • ADS, DDS, TRUP, DVA, PII, AMAT, CVET, GLOB, SSL, UGLD, ALEC, VGLT, SKM, TLRY, TPTX, KL, ISRG, HXL, USLV, RYAAY, PTLA and INSP
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) GPS 2) SFIX 3) AMAT 4) LEN 5) DE
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) SAEX 2) TRUP 3) ADS 4) DDS 5) HXL
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value +2.0%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service +3.2% 2) Banks +2.5% 3) Retail +2.3%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CONE, DZSI, ADUS, PAGS, NVDA, EXEL, TPR, KTOS, TDOC, ZYXI and APPN
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) DISCA 2) CBS 3) WAB 4) HPE 5) SGMS
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) SLDB 2) NVDA 3) TJX 4) DE 5) AMD
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Thursday, August 15, 2019

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:   
  • Asia Stocks Slip as Bond Yields Extend Recent Fall. Stocks in Asia slipped after another tumultuous session on Wall Street and further declines in Treasury yields, on heightened trade uncertainty and fears of a slowing global economy. Japanese shares opened lower along with South Korea. Contracts on the S&P 500 Index edged higher after the U.S. gauge swung more than 1% for a 12th straight day in above-average volume before finally ending the day up. The dollar was little changed. Money continued to pile into bonds, with these the latest milestones reached: Japan’s Topix index fell 0.4% as of 9:03 a.m. in Tokyo. Futures on the S&P 500 Index added 0.1%. The underlying gauge rose 0.3% on Thursday. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.1%. South Korea’s Kospi declined 0.8%.  
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.0% to -.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.0 unch..
  • China Sovereign CDS 56.0 +.75 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  65.62 -.02%.
  • FTSE 100 futures +.38%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.20%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.25%.
Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (DE)/2.84
  • (QD)/.52
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Housing Starts for July is estimated to rise to 1256K versus 1253K in June.
  • Building Permits for July is estimated to rise to 1270K versus 1220K in June.
10:00 am EST
  • Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for August is estimated to fall to 97.0 versus 98.4 in July.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone Trade Balance report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.