Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.4%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Biotech -.8% 2) Internet -.7% 3) Gaming -.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• FB, BAX, PYPL, PTC, ATUS, QSI, COHU, GSHD, NKLA, DBD, EQT, NVCR, CTXS, AVXL, BCOV, SAVA and ANVS
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) TAP 2) ZNGA 3) PYPL 4) SPRT 5) FB
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NVCR 2) EQT 3) NKLA 4) PACK 5) CONE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding +4.9% 2) Steel +4.4% 3) Gold & Silver +3.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• LC, TPX, MTH, MXL, CEIX, ECHO, CCS, ALGN, PRFT, TDUP, ALGM, AMD, BZH, SAH, CTSH, XLNX, CLF, SCI, VSTO, WING, STLD, QCOM, SSNC, HLT, ACI, ZM, FIVN, STRA, AN, KN, ALB, ATEN, CFX and HRC
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) LC 2) TPX 3) XRT 4) IRBT 5) QCOM

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LC 2) F 3) CGNX 4) ALGM 5) AMD
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +4.4% Above 100-Day Average 
• 10 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
• 70.1% of Issues Advancing, 25.8% Declining
• 147 New 52-Week Highs, 16 New Lows
• 77.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.4%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,773.0 +132.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,597.0 -.54%
  
• Vix 17.5 -4.6%
• Total Put/Call .55 -29.5%
• TRIN/Arms .99 +33.8%

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:      

• China Convenes Banks in Bid to Restore Calm After Stock Rout.
• U.K. Carmakers Run Low on Staff in Second-Worst June Since 1953.  
• India’s Recovery Stumbles, Setting Stage for Sustained Low Rates.
• Samsung Profit Tops Estimates on Strong Memory Chip Prices.
  
• Thailand Risks First Double-Dip Recession Since 1998 Asia Crisis.
• Asian Stocks Rise on Fed Reassurance, China Steps: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Steadies Near Two-Week High After U.S. Stockpiles Decline.
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.
• Virus Surge Upends Plans for Companies Trickling Back to Office.
• Biden Vows to Enforce ‘Buy American’ Rule for Federal Agencies.  
• Not Even Jerome Powell Gets What’s Up With the Bond Market.  
• Senate Moves Forward on $550 Billion Infrastructure Deal.  
• Doctors Blast Biogen Alzheimer Approval as ‘Regulatory Failure’.  
• Grill Maker Traeger Is Said to Price Shares at Top End of Range.  
• Yum China Posts Quarterly Sales That Fall Short of Expectations.

Wall Street Journal:

• Washington’s Oil Lobby Pivoted on Climate Change—and Made No One Happy.
• Is Joe Biden Sinking?
• The Federal Reserve’s Big Inflation Miss.
• The American Jobs Plan Is a Call to Arms for the GOP.
• Biden Plans to Require Covid Vaccine or Regular Tests for Federal Workers.
• SEC Weighs Making Companies Liable for Climate Disclosures.
  

Fox News:

• Whistleblowers say Biden admin told migrant facility workers to bury raging outbreak — and that's not all.
• Police officer's chilling warning as liberal policies continue to embolden criminals.
  

CNBC.com:

• Senate votes to advance bipartisan infrastructure bill as Democrats forge ahead with economic agenda.
• Facebook beats earnings expectations, but warns of significant growth slowdown.
• Fed holds rates near zero, says economy has gotten better even with pandemic worries.
• Uber shares drop as Softbank plans to sell shares to cover Didi and other losses.
• Apple will require masks in many U.S. stores regardless of vaccination status.
• The Fed edged toward reversing its easy policies, but it may move slower than some expect.
• Ford says reservations for F-150 Lightning electric pickup top 120,000.
• Qualcomm shares rise as revenue pops 63% driven by chip sales.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: PayPal, Facebook, Ford and more.
• PayPal comes in light on revenue, profit drops from last year.
  

MarketWatch.com:       

• Lam Research tops $4 billion in quarterly sales for first time amid semiconductor shortage.
  
• AMD’s stock surges to record high while chip maker takes more market share from Intel.

Zero Hedge:

• Robinhood's Retail Reckoning Awaits After IPO'ing At Low-End Of Range.
• Hank Paulson's TPG Climate Fund Raises $5.4 Billion.
• In 67-32 Vote, Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal Advances To Debate In The Senate.
• George Soros Gives $1 Million To Group Trying To "Defund The Police" Amid Surge In Crime.
• Herzog: Med Schools Are Now Denying Biological Sex.
• Sydney Lockdown Extended For At Least A Month Stoking Fears Of "Double-Dip" Recession.
• Not Just The Feds: Top Union Boss Says AFL-CIO Supports Mandatory Vaccines For Workers.
• Biden's Border Patrol Dumping COVID-Positive Illegals In Texas Town Via Local Charity.
• The CDC's Hysterical Delta Flip-Flop Might Be Its Final Undoing.
• "Not Grounded In Reality": Many Republican Governors Make Clear They Will Not Be Mandating Masks Or Vaccines.
• Remington Reaches Historic $33 Million Settlement With Families Of Sandy Hook Victims.
• Taibbi: The Vaccine Aristocrats.
• California Counties See COVID Cases Rising In Most Heavily Vaccinated Counties.
• 5 Takeaways From Powell's Conference.
• Powell Pumps Stocks, Dumps Dollar In Dovish Doublespeak.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• New York Times Reporter Says the Quiet Part Out Loud: Calls for Labeling Trump Supporters “Enemies of the State” to Combat “National Security Threats”.
• Joe Biden Mingles with Maskless People as His Admin Pushes For Mask Mandates on Americans Regardless of Vaccination Status (VIDEO).
• BOOM! National Police Association SLAMS Pelosi’s Jan. 6 “Dog and Pony Show” — Calls for Investigation of Floyd Riots that Resulted in 1,000 Times More Damage.
• Breaking: Maryland Voter Integrity Group Finds Serious Anomalies in Four Maryland Counties …Update: Maryland Secretary of State’s Office Responds.
• INSANE! Biden Admin Forces Border Patrol Agents to Wear Masks as They Watch Thousands of Illegals Untested for COVID Parade Into the Country Each Week.

The Epoch Times:

• ‘Pathetic and Disgraceful’: Lawmakers Blast Coca-Cola, Visa, Airbnb for Supporting Beijing ‘Genocide Olympics’.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity.
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 89.75 -1.0 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 40.0 -.5 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.93 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,649.0 +8.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.6 +2.2%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.1%.

• S&P 500 futures -.09%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.15%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (AGCO)/2.22
• (ADS)/3.74
• (AB)/.82
• (MO)/1.17
• (AMT)/2.30
• (BUD)/.90
• (MT)/2.77
• (AZN)/.90
• (BAX)/.75
• (CTXS)/1.22
• (CMCSA)/.67
• (HSY)/1.43
• (HLT)/.39
• (ICE)/1.16
• (IP)/1.05
• (LH)/5.68
• (MLM)/3.83
• (MA)/1.75
• (MRK)/1.35
• (TAP)/1.35
• (NOC)/5.85
• (OSK)/2.26
• (OSTK)/.55
• (PTEN)/-.52
• (BTU)/-.62
• (VLO)/.14
• (WWW)/.47
• (YUM)/.95
  

After the Close:

• (AMZN)/12.24
• (BZH)/.90
• (DECK)/-.11
• (FSLR)/.56
• (FTNT)/.87
• (FWRD)/1.01
• (GILD)/1.75
• (KLAC)/4.00
• (MSTR)/1.21
• (MHK)/3.68
• (SKYW)/.33
• (SWKS)/2.14
• (TWLO)/-.13
• (X)/3.09
• (VRTX)/2.36
• (WERN)/.87
• (ZEN)/.16
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• 2Q GDP QoQ is estimated to rise +8.5% versus a +6.4% gain in 1Q.
• 2Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +10.5% versus a +11.4% gain in 1Q.
• 2Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +5.4% versus a +4.3% gain in 1Q.
• 2Q Core PCE QoQ is estimated to rise +6.1% versus a +2.5% gain in 1Q.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 385K versus 419K the prior week. 
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 3186K versus 3236K prior.
  

10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales MoM for June is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +8.0% gain in May.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (GE) 1-for-8
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Unemployment Rate, $62B 7Y T-Note auction, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the weekly Langer Consumer Comfort Index could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by consumer and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on More Dovish Fed Commentary, Earnings Optimism, Oil Gain, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.1 -6.8%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,667.0 +125.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.42 +.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.7 +.4%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.1 -2.3%

• ISE Sentiment Index 146.0  +36.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .76 -25.5%

• NYSE Arms .43 -50.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.02 -.92%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 424.0 -.52%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.21 -1.3%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 107.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 92.34 +.47%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 165.93 -.65%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 38.09 -.20%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 7.75 +.5 basis point

• TED Spread 8.75 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.0 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  72.0 -2.5 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.5 -.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.89 +.26%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 104.0 -3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 198.50 USD/Metric Tonne -.35%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 3.2 +.1 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 39.7 -1.2 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 50.8 +.3 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 +1.0 basis point
• 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 130 infections/100K people(last 7 days) +9/100K people
• 25% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +2.0 percentage points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +319 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +394 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -5 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On gains in my industrial/biotech/tech/consumer discretionary/mecdical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Restaurants -2.1% 2) Homebuilders -.9% 3) Road & Rail -.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• CHRW, OVV, CFG, AGFY, HUM, TNL and CAKE
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ASHR 2) VOO 3) TDOC 4) VFC 5) SPRT
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) HMLP 2) SPOT 3) CAKE 4) WING 5) OMCL
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume